Derrell S. Peel
Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and
Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Oklahoma State University

$/cwt.
• Boxed Beef
– Choice
– Select
• Fed Cattle (5-Mkt)
• 7/800 Steers (Okla Ave.)
• 4/500 Steers (Okla Ave.)
$213.51
$212.31
$140.80
$165.55
$211.50

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE
Choice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL OCT
C-P-62
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE BEEF PRICE
Choice, Monthly
190
180
170
160
150
$ Per Cwt
220
210
200
140
130
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Choice

SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
Southern Plains, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL OCT
C-P-52
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

$ Per Cwt.
175
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
JAN
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES
700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
APR JUL OCT
C-P-49
02/05/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES
400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL OCT
C-P-49A
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

FED, FEEDER AND CALF PRICES
Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2009 2010
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2011 2012 2013 2014
Fed
725 lb.
Steers
475 lb.
Steers

SLAUGHTER COW PRICES
Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
100
90
80
70
60
50
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL OCT
C-P-35
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

BOXED COW-BEEF CUTOUT VALUE
Cutter Cow, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL OCT
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

Annual, Oklahoma City
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2014 -2016 forecast,
Analysis by Derrell Peel
2016

Location
NE
SD
NE
NE
IA
MT
SD
CO
KS
OK
Replacement Heifers
February, 2014
Weight Price Per Head
558
578
601
618
623
639
677
714
844
900
$192.25
$185.50
$182.16
$219.26
$186.50
$200.00
$231.34
$179.00
$181.00
$157.25
$1073
$1072
$1095
$1355
$1162
$1279
$1566
$1278
$1528
$1415

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
15
14
13
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
450-500 lb.
550-600 lb.
650-700 lb.
750-800

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
15
14
13
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
450-500 lb.
500-550 lb.
550-600 lb.
600-650 lb.

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
600-650 lb.
650-700 lb.
700-750 lb.
750-800 lb.

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price, First Quarter
15
14
10
9
8
7
6
5
13
12
11
450-500 lb.
500-550 lb.
550-600 lb.
600-650 lb.
650-700 lb.
700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
January
February
March

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price, Second Quarter
10
9
8
7
6
5
15
14
13
12
11
450-500 lb.
500-550 lb.
550-600 lb.
600-650 lb.
650-700 lb.
700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
April
May
June

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price, Third Quarter
15
14
13
12
11
7
6
5
10
9
8
450-500 lb.
500-550 lb.
550-600 lb.
600-650 lb.
650-700 lb.
700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
July
August
September

Heifer Discounts
Percent Less Than Steer Price, Fourth Quarter
15
14
13
12
11
7
6
5
10
9
8
450-500 lb.
500-550 lb.
550-600 lb.
600-650 lb.
650-700 lb.
700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
October
November
December

All Cattle and Calves
Beef Cows
Dairy Cows
Beef Replacements
Dairy Replacements
Feeder Supply
Cattle on Feed
2013
1000 Head
89300
29297
9218
5381
4551
25434
13364
2014
1000 Head
87730
29042
9209
5471
4539
24739
12695
% Change
-1.8
-0.9
-0.01
+1.7
-0.25
-2.7
-5.0
Calf Crop
2012
34279
2013
33930 -1.0

Mil. Head
140
130
JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
120
110
100
90
2014 = 87.7 Million Head
-1.8 Percent
80
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
C-N-01
01/31/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS

All Cattle and Calves
Beef Cows
Dairy Cows
Beef Replacements
Dairy Replacements
Feeder Supply
Cattle on Feed
2013
1000 Head
4200
1754
46
280
20
1635
345
2014
1000 Head
4300
1805
% Change
+2.4
+2.9
45 -2.2
325 +16.1
20
1715
265
0.0
+4.9
-23.2
Calf Crop
2012
1670
2013
1670 0.0

Oklahoma and U.S. Cattle Cycles:
Beef Cow Inventory, January 1
2900
2700
2500
2300
2100
1900
1700
47000
45000
43000
41000
39000
37000
35000
33000
31000
1500
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
OKLA US
2009 2012
29000

JANUARY 1 CATTLE ON FEED
Mil. Head
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel

JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES
Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
Mil. Head
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel

Cattle on Feed as % of Estimated Feeder
Supplies
January 1, 1965-2014
60.00%
55.00%
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CATTLE ON FEED
Oklahoma, Monthly
300
275
250
225
1000 Head
400
375
350
325
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Avg.
2007/11
2012
2013
2014

31,0%
30,0%
29,0%
28,0%
27,0%
26,0%
Texas and Oklahoma, 12 Month Moving Ave.

30,0%
28,0%
26,0%
24,0%
22,0%
20,0%
Iowa and Nebraska, 12 Month Moving Ave.

January 1, 2014
1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves Cattle on Feed
• 1/ 2 TX/NE • 1 TX
• 2 NE
• 3 KS
• 4 CA
• 5 OK
• 6 MO
• 8 IA
• 9 SD
• 10 WI 3,350
10,900
6,150
5,800
5,250
4,300
3,800
3,700
3,650
• 3 KS
• 4 IA
• 5 CO
• 6 CA
• 7 SD
• 8 MN
• 9 AZ
• 10 OK
2,450
2,150
1,230
990
510
310
300
274
265

• 1 TX
• 2 MO
• 3 OK
• 4 NE
• 5 SD
• 6 MT
• 7 KS
• 8 KY
• 9 ND
• 10 IA
January 1, 2014
3,910
1,820
1,805
1,797
1,635
1,476
1,414
1,012
943
855
1000 Head
Beef Cows Beef Heifers
• 1 TX
• 2 MT
• 3 NE
• 4 SD
• 5 OK
• 6 MO
640
430
387
330
325
305
• 7 MO 270
•
• 8 KS
9 WY
240
175
• 10 ND 170

January 1, 2014
Feeder Supply Stocker Ratio
• 1 TX 2,960
• 2 OK 1,715
• 3 KS 1,690
• 4 CA 1,430
• 5 MO 1,380
• 6 NE 1,345
• 7 SD 1,135
•
• 8 IA
9 WI
1,050
820
• 10 MN 775
• 0.769
• 1.027
• 1.320
• 0.711
• 0.798
• 0.801
• 0.672
• 1.029
• 0.603
• 0.994
Stocker Ratio =
Feeder Supply /
Calf Crop
U.S. Avg = 0.729

Regional Share of Feeder Supplies
Outside of Feedlots, January 1
30.0%
25.0% 10 yr ave.
2014
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
N or th w es t
So ut hw es t
N
.R
oc ki es
S.
R oc ki es
N
.P
la in s
S.
Pl ai ns
G
.L
ak es
M id w es t
G ul f
So ut h
A pp al ac hi an
E
.S
ea bo ar d
N or th ea st

Southern Plains Feeder Share,
January 1
31.0%
30.0%
29.0%
28.0%
27.0%
26.0%
25.0%
24.0%
23.0%
22.0%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1
0.5
0
3
2.5
2
1.5
Million Head
4
Calves, Steers and Other Heifers Grazing
Small Grains Pasture
Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas
3.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13

CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS
JANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014
(1000 Head)
-12
-11
-10
-5
-1
-65
3
10
-30
0
-3
-1
-15
21
-53
-8
-105
86
51
0
-25
-40
63
31
-4
-20
-3
-9
1
15
1
-48
-16
3
-9
-29
0
-4
20
-10
15
-110 to -11
-11 to -1
-1 to 3
3 to 87
VT 0
NH -1
MA -1
RI 0
CT -2
NJ -1
DE -1
MD -3
-31
U.S. Total: -255
02/03/14
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS

CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS
JANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013
(1000 Head)
-20
4
-10
-5
-1
41
-5
-15
50
-20
-45
-8
-44
60
78
-79
-550
-119
-24
1
10
30
-100
-58
2
-5
29
0
4
-5
-4
-38
33
-10
5
1
-22
-10
4
22
-10
-550 to -15
-15 to -1
-1 to 4
4 to 79
VT 2
NH -1
MA -1
RI 0
CT 2
NJ 1
DE 1
MD -2
-32
U.S. Total: -862
02/04/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS

CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS
JANUARY 1, 2011 TO JANUARY 2012
(1000 Head)
-2
-16
20
-1
0
23
5
-3
-20
20
-53
-1
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
22
-18
0
112
-660
-51
-288
-3
5
55
-8
0
10
3
-21
-18
-40
-28
10
-5
-11
4
10
-19
0
-9 -9
10
-9
-660 to -9
-9 to 0
0 to 10
10 to 113
VT 0
NH 1
MA 2
RI 0
CT 1
NJ -1
DE 0
MD 1
14
U.S. Total: -967
01/27/12

CALF CROP
U.S., Annual
55
Mil. Head
50
45
40
35
2013 = 33.9 Million Head
-1 Percent
30
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
C-N-18A
02/04/13

Mil. Head
JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES
Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
40
35
30
25
20
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
C-N-30
01/31/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS

Mil. Head
7.0
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF
COW REPLACEMENTS
January 1, U.S.
6.5
6.0
+1.7 %
5.5
5.0
4.5
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
C-N-38
01/31/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS

HEIFERS ON FEED
Quarterly
1000 Head
4700
4500
4300
4100
3900
3700
3500
JAN-MAR APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
M-S-01
08/28/13
Avg.
2006/10
2011
2012
2013
2014

HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS
JANUARY 1
6.8
6.5
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.5
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

70,0%
67,5%
65,0%
62,5%
60,0%
57,5%
55,0%
52,5%
50,0%
47,5%
45,0%
42,5%
40,0%
Replacement Heifers Entering the Herd
% Entering
Projected
Average

Mil. Head
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2000
BEEF REPLACEMENT HEIFERS ENTERING
HERD
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS and Calculation by Derrell Peel

Cow Slaughter, Annual
Million Head
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC and Derrell Peel

HEIFER RETENTION AND COW CULLING as % of January 1 Cow Herd
Heifer %
20%
19%
Average:
Heifer % = 17.1
Culling % = 9.7
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Heifers Proj Cow Culling Proj
Culling %
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
Analysis by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS

JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
Mil. Head
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
C-N-02
01/29/12 Analysis by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS

U S ALL HAY STOCKS
December 1
Mil. Tons
120
110
100
90
80
70
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
G-NP-22
08/30/13

PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS
(2013-2012)
0%
0%
0%
0%
U.S. Total:
12%
39%
-17%
24%
17%
5%
-13%
-33%
9%
26%
25%
-3%
50%
34%
-6%
14%
60%
34%
49% 18%
28%
87%
25%
10%
16%
-8%
9%
7%
24%
25%
-9%
15%
-4%
0%
11%
-45%
-100% to -25%
-25% to 0%
0% to 25%
25% to 100%
VT 3%
NH -57%
MA -15%
RI 0%
CT -4%
NJ -8%
DE 88%
MD -6%
-2%
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
1/21/2014

1000 Tons
OKLAHOMA ALL HAY STOCKS
December 1
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

2,75
2,50
2,25
2,00
1,75
1,50
1,25
1,00
0,75
0,50
0,25
0,00
Tons Per Beef Cow
Oklahoma

SOUTHERN PLAINS CORN PRICES
Weekly
$ Per Bu.
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
G-P-04
01/30/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOYBEAN MEAL
(48%) PRICES
Weekly $ Per Ton
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
G-P-07
01/23/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

CATTLE ON FEED
US Total, Monthly
Mil. Head
12.0
11.5
Avg.
2008/12
11.0
10.5
2013
10.0
9.5
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
C-N-10
01/24/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
2014

$ Per Head
175
AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS
Feeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly
125
75
25
-25
-75
-125
-175
-225
-275
-325
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Latest Data: December 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
C-P-22
01/07/14
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

$ Per Cwt
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
85
75
2005 2006
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN
Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
2007 2008
Latest Data: December 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
C-P-21
01/07/14
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Steer
Price
Breakeven
Projected
Breakeven

Cattle Slaughter, Annual
34
33
32
31
30
29
Million Head
37
36
35
28
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
M-S-03A
01/29/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Mil. Head
118
113
108
103
98
93
88
1987 1990
BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY
Inventory on January 1, U.S.
Commercial Beef Production
Bil. Pounds
28
1993 1996 1999 2002
Total Cattle Inventory
2005 2008 2011 2014
27
26
25
24
23
22
M-S-23
08/10/12 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Production
2013 2014 2013-2014
Million lbs.
Million lbs.
%
Beef 25694 23971
Pork 23167 23559
Broilers 37412 38687
-6.7
+1.7
+3.4
Consumption
Per Capita
2014
Retail Lbs.
53.2
46.5
83.8
Consumption
Change
2013-2104
%
-5.7
-0.2
+2.6

BEEF GRADED CHOICE
As a Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly
Percent
69
67
65
63
61
59
57
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-S-26
02/03/14
Avg.
2008-
12
2013
2014

CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES
Carcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
25
20
15
10
5
0
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL OCT
C-P-68
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

RETAIL BEEF PRICE
Monthly
$ Per Cwt
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
C-P-21
10/03/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
All Fresh
Choice

6.1
5.7
5.3
Bil. Pounds
6.9
6.5
JAN-MAR
COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION
Quarterly
APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
M-S-01
12/31/13
Avg.
2008/12
2013
2014
2015

WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES
Boneless, Light, Weekly
600
550
500
450
$ Per Cwt.
850
800
750
700
650
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-21
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES
Boneless 0x1, Weekly
500
450
400
350
$ Per Cwt.
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

$ Per Cwt.
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
JAN
WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICES
Musl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly
APR JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-23
02/05/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES
Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly
240
220
200
180
160
140
$ Per Cwt.
300
280
260
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
$ Per Cwt.
300
WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES
18-33 Pounds, Weekly
JAN APR JU
L
O
C
T
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-22
02/05/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS

WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES
Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
$ Per Cwt.
230
220
210
200
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-24
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES
Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly
80
70
60
50
40
$ Per Cwt.
130
120
110
100
90
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-25
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

6.0
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.0
Bil. Pounds
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.3
JAN-MAR
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION
Quarterly
APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
M-S-06
12/31/13
Avg.
2008/12
2013
2014
2015

RETAIL PORK PRICE
Monthly
Cents Per Pound
405
385
365
345
325
305
285
JAN MAR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS
MAY JUL SEP NOV
M-P-05
01/17/14
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013

WHOLESALE HAM PRICES
Trimmed Selected, 23-27 Pounds, Weekly
75
70
65
60
55
50
$ Per Cwt.
100
95
90
85
80
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-27
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES
1/4 Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly
125
115
105
$ Per Cwt.
155
145
135
95
85
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-28
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICES
Skin-on, 14-16 Pounds, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-29
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE PORK TRIMMING PRICES
Fresh, 72% Lean, Weekly
70
60
50
40
JAN
$ Per Cwt.
110
100
90
80
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-30
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICES
Trimmed, Light Poly, Weekly
140
130
120
110
100
$ Per Cwt.
190
180
170
160
150
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JU
L
O
C
T
M-P-31
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

RTC BROILER PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
JAN-MAR APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
M-S-30
12/31/13
Avg.
2008/12
2013
2014
2015

WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES
Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
160
150
140
130
120
110
Cents Per Pound
210
200
190
180
170
JAN APR JU
L
O
C
T
P-P-02
02/06/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

70
65
60
55
50
45
Cents Per Pound
85
80
75
WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICES
Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
JAN APR JU
L
O
C
T
P-P-03
02/06/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

150
125
100
JAN
Cents Per Pound
225
WHOLESALE CHICKEN WING PRICES
Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
200
175
APR JU
L
O
C
T
P-P-07
02/06/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

RETAIL CHICKEN PRICE
Whole Fresh, Monthly
135
130
125
120
115
Cents Per Pound
160
155
150
145
140
JAN MAR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS
MAY JUL SEP NOV
M-P-06
01/17/14
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013

Mil. Eggs
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
BROILER EGGS SET
Weekly
JU
L
O
C
T
P-S-10
02/06/14
Avg.
2008-
12
2013
2014

U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
230
210
190
170
150
130
Mil. Pounds
290
270
250
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
I-N-16
01/09/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013

U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Annual
2.0
1.5
1.0
Bil. Pounds
3.0
2.5
0.5
0.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
I-N-06
12/29/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
70
60
50
40
30
20
Mil. Pounds
90
80
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
I-N-35
01/09/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Japan

U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Canada
I-N-35
01/09/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
70
60
50
40
30
20
Mil. Pounds
90
80
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
I-N-35
01/09/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Mexico

U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
I-N-35
01/09/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
South
Korea

U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
265
245
225
205
185
165
145
125
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
I-N-15
01/09/14 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Avg.
2007-11
2012
2013

U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS
Carcass Weight, Annual
Bil. Pounds
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
I-N-12
12/29/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCES
Carcass Weight, Annual
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mil. Pounds
900
800
700
600
Australia New Zealand Canada Mexico
I-N-36
12/30/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Avg.
2006/10
2011
2012

Thou. Head
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1987 1990
CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO
Annual
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
I-N-17
11/26/13

STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE
Live Animal Basis, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
16.00
15.00
14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
JAN APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL OCT
C-P-39
02/05/14
Avg.
2008-12
2013
2014

Price-Weight Relationship
Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, 7 Mkt. Ave.
245
235
225
215
205
195
185
175
165
155
145
135
125
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925 weight (pounds)
Sep-13
Jun-13
24-Jan-14
Nov-13

Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain
January 24, 2014, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma
Weight
(lbs)
Average
Price
($/cwt.)
Total
Value
($/hd)
VOG
400 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
VOG
450 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb
VOG
500 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
VOG
550 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
VOG
600 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
VOG
650 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
400 $231.29
$925
450 $223.03
$1,004 $1.57
500 $212.70
$1,063 $1.38
$1.20
550 $201.87
$1,110 $1.23
$1.07
$0.94
600 $190.39
$1,142 $1.09
$0.92
$0.79
$0.64
650 $180.02
$1,170 $0.98
$0.83
$0.71
$0.60
$0.56
700 $173.48
$1,214 $0.96
$0.84
$0.75
$0.69
$0.72
$0.88
750 $168.79
$1,266 $0.97
$0.87
$0.81
$0.78
$0.82
$0.96
800 $165.13
$1,321 $0.99
$0.91
$0.86
$0.84
$0.89
$1.01
850 $161.19
$1,370 $0.99
$0.92
$0.88
$0.87
$0.91
$1.00
900 $157.45
$1,417 $0.98
$0.92
$0.88
$0.88
$0.92
$0.99

$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS
Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
C-P-66
10/29/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

• Beef Packers
– Margin and volume challenges
• Feedlots
– Margin and volume challenges
• Stocker/Backgrounding
– Strong value of added feeder weight
• Cow-Calf
– Record profits
• Focus on production and cost management
– Rebuilding challenges

ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES
Southern Plains
$ Per Cwt
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
500-600lb
Steer
Calves
700-800lb
Feeder
Steers
Fed
Steers
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC