Cattle and Beef Market Situation
and Outlook
Derrell S. Peel
Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and
Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Oklahoma State University
Major Beef Market Factors
•
•
•
•
•
Cattle Inventory and Beef Production
Beef Demand
International Trade
Feed and Input Markets
Forage Conditions
Cattle Industry Issues
• Beta Agonists
• COOL
• Industry Infrastructure
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE
Choice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
220
210
Avg.
2007-11
200
190
180
2012
170
160
2013
150
140
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
C-P-62
11/04/13
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
Southern Plains, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
135
130
Avg.
2007-11
125
120
115
110
2012
105
100
95
2013
90
85
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
C-P-52
11/04/13
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES
700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
175
165
Avg.
2007-11
155
145
135
2012
125
115
2013
105
95
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL
OCT
C-P-49
11/04/13
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES
400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
220
210
Avg.
2007-11
200
190
180
170
2012
160
150
140
2013
130
120
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL
OCT
C-P-49A
11/04/13
FEEDER STEER vs FED STEER PRICES
700-800 Lbs. Minus Slaughter Steer, S. Plains, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
40
35
Avg.
2007-11
30
25
20
2012
15
10
2013
5
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL
OCT
C-P-53
11/04/13
Replacement Heifers
November 1, 2013
Class
Weight
Price
Location
Heifers
457
$206.00
Burwell, NE
Heifers
464
$201.50
Ogallala, NE
Heifers
495
$245.00
Ft. Pierre, SD
Heifers
531
$202.72
Burwell, NE
Heifers
536
$199.89
Valentine, NE
Heifers
(Per Head)
579
$1193.96
($206.21/cwt.)
Valentine, NE
Heifers
586
$189.00
Ft. Pierre, SD
Heifers
604
$205.00
Herreid, SD
Heifers
628
$190.00
Burwell, NE
Heifers
(Per Head)
741
$1385
($186.91)
Valentine, NE
SLAUGHTER COW PRICES
Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
95
Avg.
2007-11
85
75
2012
65
55
2013
45
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
C-P-35
11/04/13
BOXED COW-BEEF CUTOUT VALUE
Cutter Cow, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
190
Avg.
2007-11
180
170
160
2012
150
140
130
2013
120
110
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
11/04/13
JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
Mil. Head
140
130
120
2013 = 89.3 Million Head
-1.6 Percent
110
100
90
80
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
C-N-01
02/04/13
Oklahoma and U.S. Cattle Cycles:
Beef Cow Inventory, January 1
2900
47000
45000
2700
43000
2500
41000
2300
39000
2100
37000
35000
1900
33000
1700
31000
1500
1970
29000
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
OKLA
US
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
2013 = 29.3 Million Head
Mil. Head
40
34
Input ShockRecession
Liquidation
Drought
Liquidation
36
Drought
Liquidation
Cyclical
Expansion
38
Cyclical
Liquidation
Cyclical
Expansion
-2.9 Percent
32
30
28
1982
1985
1988
1991
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
C-N-02
01/29/12
JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES
Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
Mil. Head
40
35
30
25
20
1983
1986
1989
1992
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
C-N-30
02/04/13
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF
COW REPLACEMENTS
Mil. Head
January 1, U.S.
7.0
6.5
6.0
+1.9 %
5.5
5.0
4.5
1983
1986
1989
1992
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
C-N-38
02/04/13
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS
JANUARY 1
6.8
6.5
Million Head
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.5
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Replacement Heifers Entering the Herd
70.0%
67.5%
65.0%
62.5%
60.0%
57.5%
55.0%
52.5%
50.0%
47.5%
45.0%
42.5%
40.0%
% Entering
Projected
Average
Mil. Head
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
2000
BEEF REPLACEMENT HEIFERS ENTERING
HERD
2002
2004
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS and Calculation by Derrell Peel
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Cow Slaughter, Annual
Million Head
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC and Derrell Peel
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
HEIFER RETENTION AND COW CULLING
as % of January 1 Cow Herd
Culling %
Heifer %
20%
13%
Average:
Heifer % = 17.1
Culling % = 9.6
19%
12%
18%
11%
17%
10%
16%
9%
15%
8%
14%
7%
1986
1989
1992
Heifers
Analysis by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS
1995
1998
Proj
2001 2004
2007
2010
Cow Culling
2013
2016
Proj
JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
Mil. Head
40
38
36
34
32
30
Analysis by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
28
C-N-02
01/29/12
Yearling and Cow Slaughter, Annual
Million Head
30.0
7.5
29.0
7
28.0
6.5
27.0
6
26.0
5.5
25.0
24.0
5
23.0
4.5
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Yearlings
Yrlg Proj
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Cows (right axis)
Cow Proj
Cattle Slaughter, Annual
Million Head
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
M-S-03A
01/29/13
BEEF PRODUCTION
vs. CATTLE INVENTORY
Inventory on January 1, U.S.
Mil. Head
Bil. Pounds
28
Commercial Beef Production
27
118
113
26
108
103
25
98
24
93
23
Total Cattle Inventory
88
22
1987
1990
1993
1996
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
M-S-23
08/10/12
BEEF GRADED CHOICE
As a Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly
Percent
68
Avg.
200711
66
64
2012
62
60
2013
58
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
56
M-S-26
11/05/13
CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES
Carcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
25
Avg.
2007-11
20
15
2012
10
5
2013
0
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL
OCT
C-P-68
11/04/13
RETAIL BEEF PRICE
All Fresh, Monthly
Cents Per Pound
500
Avg.
2007-11
475
450
2012
425
400
2013
375
JAN
MAR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS
MAY
JUL
SEP
NOV
M-P-11
09/23/13
RETAIL BEEF PRICE
Choice, Monthly
Cents Per Pound
550
Avg.
2007-11
525
500
2012
475
450
2013
425
400
JAN
MAR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS
MAY
JUL
SEP
NOV
M-P-09
09/23/13
RETAIL BEEF PRICE
Monthly
$ Per Cwt
550
525
All Fresh
500
475
450
Choice
425
400
375
350
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
C-P-21
10/03/13
WHOLESALE BEEF PRICE
Choice, Monthly
$ Per Cwt
220
210
200
190
180
170
Choice
160
150
140
130
120
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FED, FEEDER AND CALF PRICES
Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2009
Fed
725 lb.
Steers
475 lb.
Steers
2010
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2011
2012
2013
2014
CATTLE SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
720
Avg.
2007-11
670
620
2012
570
2013
520
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
470
C-S-08
10/29/13
HEIFER SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
215
205
Avg.
200711
195
185
175
2012
165
155
145
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
135
C-S-13
10/29/13
CATTLE DRESSED WEIGHT
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Pounds
810
800
Avg.
2007-11
790
780
2012
770
760
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
750
C-S-18A
10/29/13
STEER DRESSED WEIGHT
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Pounds
890
880
Avg.
200711
870
860
2011
850
840
830
2012
820
810
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
800
C-S-18
10/29/13
TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
155
145
Avg.
200711
135
125
2012
115
105
95
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
85
C-S-14
10/29/13
BEEF COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
90
85
80
Avg.
200711
75
70
65
60
2012
55
50
45
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
40
C-S-34
10/29/13
DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
75
Avg.
200711
70
65
60
2012
55
50
45
2013
40
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
35
C-S-35
10/29/13
COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
6.9
Avg.
2008/12
6.5
2013
6.1
2014
5.7
2015
5.3
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-01
10/02/13
BEEF PRODUCTION
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Mil. Pounds
550
525
Avg.
2007-11
500
475
450
2012
425
400
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
375
M-S-18
11/05/13
U S BEEF CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
Pounds
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
1990
1993
1996
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
M-C-15
09/25/13
U S EXPENDITURES FOR BEEF
Per Capita, Annual
Nominal Dollars
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2005
2008
2011
2014
M-C-16A
09/25/13
HEIFERS ON FEED
Quarterly
1000 Head
4700
Avg.
2006/10
4500
2011
4300
4100
2012
3900
3700
2013
3500
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-01
08/28/13
WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES
Boneless, Light, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
850
Avg.
2007-11
800
750
700
2012
650
600
550
2013
500
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
450
M-P-21
11/05/13
WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICES
Musl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
1300
Avg.
2007-11
1200
1100
2012
1000
900
2013
800
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
700
M-P-23
11/05/13
WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES
Boneless 0x1, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
850
800
Avg.
2007-11
750
700
650
2012
600
550
500
450
2013
400
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
350
11/05/13
WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES
Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
260
Avg.
2007-11
240
220
200
2012
180
160
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
140
11/05/13
WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES
18-33 Pounds, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
230
220
Avg.
2007-11
210
200
190
2012
180
170
160
2013
150
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
140
M-P-22
11/05/13
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES
Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
120
Avg.
2007-11
110
100
90
2012
80
70
60
2013
50
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
40
M-P-25
11/05/13
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES
Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
250
Avg.
2007-11
230
210
2012
190
170
2013
150
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
130
M-P-24
11/05/13
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
7.1
Avg.
2008/12
6.7
2013
6.3
5.9
2014
5.5
2015
5.1
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-06
10/02/13
WHOLESALE HAM PRICES
Trimmed Selected, 23-27 Pounds, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
95
90
Avg.
2007-11
85
80
75
2012
70
65
60
2013
55
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
50
M-P-27
11/05/13
WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES
1/4 Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
165
155
Avg.
2007-11
145
135
125
2012
115
105
95
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
85
M-P-28
11/05/13
WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICES
Skin-on, 14-16 Pounds, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
190
Avg.
2007-11
170
150
2012
130
110
2013
90
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
70
M-P-29
11/05/13
WHOLESALE PORK TRIMMING PRICES
Fresh, 72% Lean, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
110
Avg.
2007-11
100
90
80
2012
70
60
2013
50
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
40
M-P-30
11/05/13
WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICES
Trimmed, Light Poly, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
190
180
Avg.
2007-11
170
160
150
2012
140
130
120
2013
110
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
100
M-P-31
11/05/13
RTC BROILER PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
10.5
Avg.
2008/12
10.0
2013
9.5
2014
9.0
2015
8.5
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-30
10/02/13
WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES
Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
210
200
Avg.
2007-11
190
180
170
160
2012
150
140
130
2013
120
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
110
P-P-02
11/04/13
WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICES
Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
85
80
Avg.
2007-11
75
70
65
2012
60
55
50
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
45
P-P-03
11/04/13
WHOLESALE CHICKEN WING PRICES
Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
Cents Per Pound
225
Avg.
2007-11
200
175
2012
150
125
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
100
P-P-07
11/04/13
BROILER EGGS SET
Weekly
Mil. Eggs
215
210
Avg.
200711
205
200
195
2012
190
185
180
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
175
P-S-10
11/01/13
BROILER CHICKS PLACED
Weekly
Mil. Birds
180
175
Avg.
200711
170
165
160
2012
155
150
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
145
P-S-11
10/24/13
TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION
Quarterly
Bil. Pounds
24.5
Avg.
2008/12
24.0
2012
23.5
2013
23.0
2014
22.5
2015
22.0
JAN-MAR
APR-JUN
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL-SEP
OCT-DEC
M-S-31
08/28/13
U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Annual
Bil. Pounds
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1990
1993
1996
1999
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
I-N-06
09/24/13
U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
290
Avg.
2007-11
270
250
230
2012
210
190
170
2013
150
130
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-16
10/28/13
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
90
Avg.
2007-11
80
70
60
2012
50
40
30
2013
20
10
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-37
10/28/13
MAJOR U S BEEF EXPORT MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Annual
Mil. Pounds
700
600
Avg.
2006/10
500
400
2011
300
200
2012
100
0
Japan
Canada
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Mexico
Korea
I-N-18
09/25/13
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
90
80
70
60
50
40
Japan
30
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
I-N-35
10/28/13
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
70
60
50
40
30
Canada
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
I-N-35
10/28/13
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
90
80
70
60
50
40
Mexico
30
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
I-N-35
10/28/13
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
70
60
50
40
30
South
Korea
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
I-N-35
10/28/13
U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS
Carcass Weight, Monthly
Mil. Pounds
265
Avg.
2007-11
245
225
205
2012
185
165
2013
145
125
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-15
10/28/13
U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS
Carcass Weight, Annual
Bil. Pounds
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1990
1993
1996
1999
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
I-N-12
09/24/13
MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCES
Carcass Weight, Annual
Mil. Pounds
900
800
Avg.
2006/10
700
600
500
2011
400
300
200
2012
100
0
Australia
New Zealand
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Canada
Mexico
I-N-36
09/25/13
United States: Beef Trade
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
1,000 METRIC TONS
2013-2015 Projected
Exports
Imports
CATTLE IMPORTS FROM
CANADA AND MEXICO
Annual
Thou. Head
2000
1500
Mexico
1000
500
Canada
0
1987
1990
1993
1996
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
I-N-13
09/25/13
U S CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA
Monthly
Thou. Head
150
Avg.
2007-11
130
110
90
2012
70
50
2013
30
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-04
10/28/13
U S CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO
Monthly
Thou. Head
190
Avg.
2007-11
170
150
130
2012
110
90
70
2013
50
30
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
I-N-03
10/28/13
Cattle Imports from Mexico
Major Categories, Annual
1000 head
1750
1500
1250
hfrs
1000
strs <90
750
strs >90
500
250
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. Imports of Mexican Cattle
January 1-November 5, 2013
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
2012
600000
2013
400000
200000
0
Steers
Heifers
Total
STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE
Live Animal Basis, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
15.00
14.00
Avg.
2007-11
13.00
12.00
2012
11.00
10.00
2013
9.00
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
C-P-39
11/04/13
NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN YIELD
Crop Year
Bu. Per Acre
160
140
120
100
80
60
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-04
10/16/13
U S ANNUAL CORN PRODUCTION
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-07
10/16/13
NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN PRICE
Crop Year, Received by Farmers
$ Per Bushel
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-03
10/16/13
U S ANNUAL CORN EXPORTS
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-05
10/16/13
U S ANNUAL CORN FEED USE & RESIDUAL
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
1989
1991 1993
1995
1997 1999 2001 2003
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
2005 2007 2009
2011
2013
G-NP-06
10/16/13
U S ANNUAL CORN ENDING STOCKS
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-09
10/16/13
U S ANNUAL CORN
FOOD, SEED & INDUSTRIAL USE
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-10
10/16/13
U.S. CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS
Crop Year
Bil. Bushels
18
Stocks
16
14
12
Exports
10
8
Food, Seed
& Industrial
6
4
Feed &
Residual
2
0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
G-NP-12
10/16/13
WORLD CORN ENDING STOCKS
Crop Year
Mil. MT
South Africa
200
China
150
Brazil
100
Argentina
US
50
all other
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-FAS
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
08/13/13
SOUTHERN PLAINS CORN PRICES
Weekly
$ Per Bu.
9.00
Avg.
2007-11
8.00
7.00
2012
6.00
5.00
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
T
O
C
L
JU
AP
R
JA
N
4.00
G-P-04
11/04/13
CATTLE ON FEED
US Total, Monthly
Mil. Head
12.0
Avg.
2007/11
11.5
11.0
2012
10.5
10.0
2013
9.5
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
C-N-10
10/31/13
FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS
US Total, Monthly
Mil. Head
2.7
2.5
Avg.
2007/11
2.3
2.1
2012
1.9
1.7
2013
1.5
1.3
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
C-N-08
10/31/13
CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING
LESS THAN 700 POUNDS
1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly
Mil. Head
1.4
1.3
Avg.
2007/11
1.2
1.1
1.0
2012
0.9
0.8
0.7
2013
0.6
0.5
0.4
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
C-N-08A
10/31/13
CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING
MORE THAN 700 POUNDS
1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly
Mil. Head
1.5
1.4
Avg.
2007/11
1.3
1.2
1.1
2012
1.0
0.9
0.8
2013
0.7
0.6
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
C-N-08B
10/31/13
KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS
Avg. Days on Feed, Steers
Days
175
170
Avg.
2007/11
165
160
2012
155
150
145
2013
140
135
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10/31/13
KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS
Avg. Daily Gain, Steers
Pounds
4.2
Avg.
2007/11
4.0
3.8
2012
3.6
3.4
2013
3.2
3.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10/31/13
KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS
Pounds of Feed (Dry Basis)
Per Pound of Gain, Steers
Pounds
6.5
6.4
Avg.
2007/11
6.3
6.2
6.1
2012
6.0
5.9
5.8
2013
5.7
5.6
5.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10/31/13
KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS
Feeding Costs per Cwt, Steers
$/cwt
145
135
Avg.
2007/11
125
115
2012
105
95
85
2013
75
65
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10/31/13
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN
Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
$ Per Cwt
145
Latest Data: September 2013
Steer
Price
135
125
115
Breakeven
105
95
Projected
Breakeven
85
75
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
C-P-21
10/03/13
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES
Southern Plains
$ Per Cwt
195
500-600lb
Steer
Calves
175
155
700-800lb
Feeder
Steers
135
115
95
Fed
Steers
75
55
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
C-P-06
10/30/13
BEEF PRODUCTION PER COW
1988-2013 (Est.), Annual
Pounds
680
660
640
620
600
580
560
540
520
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
M-S-08A
09/24/13
Price ($/cwt)
Price-Weight Relationship
Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, 7-Markets, Oklahoma
235
225
215
205
195
185
175
165
155
145
135
27-Sep-13
19-Jul-13
1-Nov-13
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925
weight (pounds)
Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain
November 1, 2013, 7-Markets, Oklahoma
Weight Average Total
(lbs)
Price
Value
($/cwt.) ($/hd)
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
$219.54
$208.18
$195.13
$180.67
$173.64
$170.57
$169.05
$168.12
$164.39
$160.25
$155.53
$878
$937
$976
$994
$1,042
$1,109
$1,183
$1,261
$1,315
$1,362
$1,400
VOG
400 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
$1.17
$0.97
$0.77
$0.82
$0.92
$1.02
$1.09
$1.09
$1.08
$1.04
VOG
450 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb
$0.78
$0.57
$0.70
$0.86
$0.99
$1.08
$1.08
$1.06
$1.03
VOG
500 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
$0.36
$0.66
$0.89
$1.04
$1.14
$1.13
$1.10
$1.06
VOG
550 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
$0.96
$1.15
$1.26
$1.34
$1.29
$1.23
$1.16
VOG
600 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
$1.34
$1.42
$1.46
$1.37
$1.28
$1.19
VOG
650 lb.
Beg.
Weight
($/lb.)
$1.49
$1.52
$1.38
$1.27
$1.16
Corn Price and Estimated Feedlot Cost of Gain
Based on Kansas Feedlot Data
Corn Price
$/Bushel
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
7.00
7.25
7.50
7.75
8.00
Estimated Feedlot
Cost of Gain $/cwt.
78.5
81.4
84.3
87.1
92.5
97.8
100.3
102.9
105.4
107.8
110.3
112.7
115.0
117.4
Price ($/cwt)
Expected Feeder Price Patterns Versus Current
Prices
825 lb. Feeder Price = $161/cwt.
230
225
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
Cow-Calf
Stocker
Feedlot
$84 COG
Current
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925
weight (pounds)
Price ($/cwt)
Expected Feeder Price Patterns Versus Current
Prices
825 lb. Feeder Price = $161/cwt.
230
225
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
Cow-Calf
Stocker
Feedlot
$84 COG
Current
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925
weight (pounds)
Oklahoma
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
Other Hay Acres Per Beef Cow
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
Oklahoma
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
Other Hay Yield Per Acre
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Other Hay Production
Tons Per Beef Cow
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
Oklahoma
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