Recent Demographic Trends
in Europe and the World
2008 European Demographic Forum
Wolfgang Lutz
Director, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences
Leader, World Population Program, IIASA
(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Outline
• The global demographic divide deepens
• The demography of human capital
• Are fertility rates in Europe recovering?
• Demographic outlook: certainties and
uncertainties
• Demographic trends in the regions of Europe
World Population Trends:
The Big Picture
•
The 20th century was the century of population growth (with
the world population increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion). World
population is likely to peak in 2060-2080 around 9 billion.
•
The 21st century will be that of global population ageing (with
the proportion above age 60 increasing from currently 0.10 to
0.25-0.45 by 2100). The speed of population ageing will
accelerate over the coming decades.
•
Today we live an a demographically divided world with some
regions (Africa, Arab World) still growing very fast, while others
are ageing rapidly (Europe, East Asia, North America) and
some are already shrinking (Eastern Europe).
Recent Demographic Surprises and
new Insights at the Global Level
Fertility has continued to decline in East Asia:
• In China the TFR is now estimated around 1.5
• In major Chinese cities it is below 1.0
• In Taiwan it is 1.1
• Japanese official projections assume long term level of 1.2
Iran experienced the world’s most rapid fertility decline from around 7.0
in early 1980s to less than 2.0 today. This was associated with massive
increases in female education.
Africa is experiencing a “stalled fertility decline”. In several countries
declines have stopped at very high level.
Increasing evidence on the key role of education and human capital for
population and development
Mortality under age 5 by
mothers’ education (Source: DHS)
Total Fertility Rate by Education
(Source: DHS)
Kenya -Populationby Age, Sex andEducational Attainment in2000 -Global Education Trend Scenario
Kenya 2000
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
6000
NoEducation
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
4000
2000
0
Males
PopulationinThousands
2000
Females
4000
6000
Kenya 2050
Kenya -Populationby Age, Sex andEducational Attainment in2050 -Global Education Trend Scenario
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
6000
NoEducation
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
4000
2000
0
Males
PopulationinThousands
2000
Females
4000
6000
Kenya - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in2050 - Constant Enrollment
Number - Scenario
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
7000
Kenya – 2050 – Constant Enrollment
Number Scenario
NoEducation
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
5000
3000
Males
1000
1000
PopulationinThousands
3000
Females
5000
7000
The Changing Human Capital Distribution
in the World
Education level of population aged 15-64 in four mega-regions, Global Trend Scenario
1,2000
Europe and
North America
0
China Region
0
South Asia
0
0
0
0
8000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2000
2015
2030 2000
No
education
2015
2030 2000
Primary
2015
Secondary
Sub-Saharan
Africa
2030 2000
Tertiary
2015
2030
Recent Demographic Trends and
Outlook in Europe
Three Forces of Demographic Change:
•
Mortality: Life expectancy continues its long term increase. No signs
of leveling off yet. Healthy life expectancy also increases.
•
Migration: Migration trends are highly volatile and hard to predict.
Migration gains are expected to keep many EU member states from
shrinking. It is unclear whether the retirement of the “Baby Boom
Generation” will result in more immigration.
•
Fertility: The Total Fertility Rate has increased somewhat in several
countries. Is this a turnaround in the trend or simply the expected end
of the tempo effect that had depressed fertility rates as long as the
mean age of childbearing was increasing?
Fertility indicators for Spain
TFR
adjTFR
adjPATFR
MAFB
Fertility level
2.00
30
29
28
1.80
1.60
27
1.40
26
1.20
25
1.00
24
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
Mean age at first birth
2.20
First Births
0.95
0.90
0.85
Fertility level
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
TFR1
0.60
PATFR1
0.55
adjPATFR1
0.50
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Summary of Key Points
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Continued fertility declines in Asia reaching extremely low levels in East
Asia.
This is the main reason for expecting a peak in world population growth
in the second half of the century, followed by decline.
The speed of global population ageing will accelerate of the coming
decades.
Stalled fertility decline in Africa interacting with stalled development.
Key role of education and human capital.
Fertility rates recently recovered in several European countries.
This recovery is to some extent due to the expected end of the fertility
depressing tempo effect.
Divergence of fertility trends in Europe: Rather high in Northern Europe
and France, low in Southern, Central and Eastern Europe
Regional differences within countries are also significant and matter.
Demographic trends will continue to preoccupy Europe and the world.