The Influence
of Large Solar Proton Events
on the Atmosphere
Charles Jackman
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Center, Greenbelt
Greenbelt, MD
September 18, 2012
Acknowledgments:
Cora Randall
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Daniel Marsh, Francis Vitt, and Rolando Garcia
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Eric Fleming
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
Shuhui Wang
g
JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
Outline
I. Introduction to Solar Proton Events (SPEs)
(
)
II. SPE in July 2000
III SPEs in 2012
III.
IV Conclusions
IV.
I. Introduction to
Solar Proton Events (SPEs)
Protons enter through
the magnetosphere near the poles and precipitate
in the polar caps
Earth
“S l P
“Solar
Proton
t
E
Events
t (SPE
(SPEs)”
)”
Sun
GOES
GOES - Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites
Proton Precipitation
S l protons
Solar
t
60o
70o
Polar Caps
oN geomagnetic
o geomag.
90
o
lat.
>~60
80
50o
40o
Very intense solar events
push polar cap boundaries Equatorward
About 14% of Earth is affected
during solar proton events.
GOES provides Proton flux
for >1 MeV to >100 MeV
100
1 MeV
60 proton
Thermosphere
10 MeV50
proton
40
Mesosphere
60
30
100 MeV
V pproton
40
20
Stratosphere
20
10
Troposphere
0
180
Altitu
ude (miles)
Altittude (km
m)
80
200
220
240
260
Temperature (K)
280
0
300
II SPE in
II.
i JJuly
l 2000
Extremely Large SPE (July 14, 2000)
Image at 195Å aboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
Extremely Large SPE – GOES 8
Proton Flux Data (July 14-16, 2000)
Note the huge
enhancement
in minutes!
Parrticles cm
m-2s-1sr--1
104
> 10 MeV
103
102
> 50 MeV
101
> 100 MeV
100
10-1
10-2
July 14
July 15
July 16
Atmospheric Influences
of Solar Proton Events
E ents
Most (70-80%) of the Energy Deposited
byy Protons Creates Ion Pairs:
 free Electron
&
positive Ion
Ionization from the Proton Fluxes
of the SPE
during July 14-16,
14 16 2000
Ionization rates (# cm-3 s-1) for July 2000 SPE
Protons from 1-300
1 300 MeV included
2,000
Alttitude (km
m)
Prressure (hPa)
1,000
Mesosphere
Stratopause
500
200
100
Stratosphere
Solar Protons also Produce
HOx and NOy Both of which can destroy Ozone
••HO
HOx x(H,
(H,OH,
OH,HO
HO2)2)produced
producedthrough
throughwater
water
cluster
clusterion
ionformation
formation&&neutralization
neutralization
––Primarily
Primarilyshort-term
short-termeffects
effects(during
(duringand
andfor
foraafew
few
hours
hoursafter
afterSPE)
SPE)
• N atoms produced by protons & associated secondary
• NOx ((N,
NO, NO
) produced
p
by
yp
protons &
electrons
dissociating
g2N
2
secondary
N23,
– Nassociated
atoms ultimately
produceelectrons
other NOy dissociating
(N, NO, NO2, NO
N2–OShort) constituentscan
long-term
effects
as NOx2constituents
5, HNOand
3, HO
2NO2, ClONO
2, BrONO
l and
last
fforlong-term
weeks
k
– Shorteffects as NOy can last for months
Largest 15 SPEs in Past 50 Years
Date of
SPEs
October 1989
August 1972
July 2000
October 28-31, 2003
November 5-7, 2001
November 2000
September
p
2001
August 1989
November 23-25, 2001
March 2012
September 1966
January 2012
January 2005
Sep. 29 – Oct. 3, 1989
Jan. 28 – Feb. 1, 1967
Computed Rank
(Amount of NOy Production)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Note that seven
of the largest SPEs
occurred in 2000-2005!
Note that two
of the largest SPEs
occurred in 2012!
Largest 15 SPEs in Past 50 Years
Date of
SPEs
Computed Rank
(Amount of NOy Production)
October 1989
August 1972
July 2000
October 28-31, 2003
November 5-7, 2001
November 2000
September
p
2001
August 1989
November 23-25, 2001
March 2012
September 1966
January 2012
January 2005
Sep. 29 – Oct. 3, 1989
Jan. 28 – Feb. 1, 1967
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Focus on J
F
July
l 2000
2000:
Fairly
y Recent
Note that seven
of the largest SPEs
Very Large
SPE
occurred in 2000-2005!
Note that two
of the largest SPEs
occurred in 2012!
Model
• Whole Atmosphere
p
Community
y Climate Model
(WACCM) – NCAR Model
Ground to
- Domain [90oS – 90oN, 0 - 145 km] Lower Thermosphere!
- Atmospheric physics & photochemistry
- Interactive dynamics
• Perturbed: Four realizations ‘With’ Solar Proton Events (SPEs)
• Base: Four realizations ‘Without’
Without SPEs
• Difference mean of Perturbed and Base results to compute
SPE
SPE-caused
d change
h
60-90oS
Prressuree (hPa)
Model - NOy % change
1000
July 2000
Solar Proton
Event (SPE)
200
100
10
20
J
A
S
O
N
Year 2000
D
J
F
M
A
Year 2001
M
J
Jackman et al.
(2008)
60-90oS
Prressuree (hPa)
Model - NOy % change
1000
July 2000
Solar Proton
Event (SPE)
Apr. 2001
SPE
Nov. 2000
SPE
200
100
10
20
J
A
S
O
N
Year 2000
D
J
F
M
A
Year 2001
M
J
Jackman et al.
(2008)
NOy Impacts Ozone
 Short to long-lived timescales (~days to months)
Nov. 2000
SPE
Apr. 2001
SPE
Pressure (hPa)
Pressurre (hPa)
Jul. 2000
SPE
60-90oS
WACCM
NOy % change
Ozone decrease
J A S O N D (in
J blue)
F M caused
A M J
Year 2000
by Year
July2001
2000 SPE
J
A
S
O
N
Year 2000
D
J
F
M
A
M J
Year 2001
WACCM
Ozone % change
Prressure (hPa)
Model - Ozone % change
60-90oS
-20
-10
-5
0
+5
+10
J
A
S
O
N
Year 2000
D
J
F
M
A
Year 2001
M
J
Jackman et al. (2008)
Prressure (hPa)
Model - Ozone % change
-20
60-90oS
Ozone decrease
O
d
-10
more NO
-5 y-induced O3 loss
0
+5
+10
Ozone increase
NOy interferes with Chlorine and Bromine chemistry
((Cl and Br primarily
p
y from manmade ggases))
J
A
S
O
N
Year 2000
D
J
F
M
A
Year 2001
M
J
Jackman et al. (2008)
Prressure (hPa)
Model - Ozone % change
60-90oS
-20
Example of the
O interaction
Ozone
decrease
d
-10
more
NO
-5 y-induced O3 loss effect
between a solar and
an anthropogenic
0
+5
+10
Ozone increase
NOy interferes with Chlorine and Bromine chemistry
((Cl and Br primarily
p
y from manmade ggases))
J
A
S
O
N
Year 2000
D
J
F
M
A
Year 2001
M
J
Jackman et al. (2008)
III. SPEs in 2012
Sun is approaching Solar Maximum
2012 has
h been
b
an Active
A i Year:
Y
so far,
f L
Large Solar
S l Proton
P t Events
E
t
in JJanuary
y and March
Focus on the March 2012 SPE
Large SPE (March 7, 2012)
Image at 195Å aboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
Site of Flare
that caused the SPE
Ionization Rates (#cm-3 s-1) – March 6-11, 2012
500
200
100
Day in March
Contour levels: 100, 200, 500, 1000, & 2000 (#cm-3 s-1)
Solar Proton
HOx Production
Ionization Rates
(top) &
HOx Production
Rates (bottom)
500
200
100
f March 6-11,
for
2012
Contour levels:
100, 200, 500, 1000,
2000 & 5000 (#cm-3 s-1)
2000,
Day in March 2012
500
200
100
A
Aura
Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)
measures HO2 and Ozone
o)
oN (60-82.5
MLS change
and 2D Model
2 Polar NH
HO2(ppbv)
forHO
60-82.5
Latitude
Band
March 6-11, 2012
0.5
0.2
0.1
HO2 average for
Feb.14-Mar.5 (3 weeks)
is subtracted
from Mar. 66-11
11 values
Top: MLS Data
Day in March 2012
Model
• Goddard Space
p
Flight
g Center ((GSFC))
Two-Dimensional (2D) Model
- Domain [90oS – 90oN, 0 - 90 km]
- Atmospheric physics & photochemistry
- Interactive dynamics
• Perturbed: Realization ‘With’ Solar Proton Events (SPEs)
o)
oN (60-82.5
MLS change
and 2D Model
2 Polar NH
HO2(ppbv)
forHO
60-82.5
Latitude
Band
March 6-11, 2012
HO2 average for
Feb.14-Mar.5 (3 weeks)
is subtracted
from Mar. 66-11
11 values
0.5
0.2
0.1
Day in March 2012
1
0.5
2D Model
Top: MLS Data
Overlay Computed
HOx Production
on MLS Data
0.2
0.1
Bottom: GSFC 2D
Model Computation
MLS and 2D Model Ozone PolaroNH (60-82.5o)
Ozone(%) change
for
60-82.5
N
Latitude
March 6-11, 2012
Ozone average for
Feb.14-Mar.5 (3 weeks)
is subtracted
from Mar. 6-11 values
-60
-40
Band
-20
20
-10
Top: MLS Data
Day in March 2012
2D Model
-80
-60
-40
-20
-10
10
Day in March 2012
Bottom: GSFC 2D
Model Computation
Solar Proton
NOy Production
Model
• Goddard Space
p
Flight
g Center ((GSFC))
Two-Dimensional (2D) Model
- Domain [90oS – 90oN, 0 - 90 km]
- Atmospheric physics & photochemistry
- Interactive dynamics
• Perturbed: Realization ‘With’ Solar Proton Events (SPEs)
• Base: Realization ‘Without’
Without SPEs
• Difference Perturbed and Base results to compute SPE-caused
change
h
GSFC 2D Model
Simulation of
NOy (%) increase
for Jan.-Jun., 2012
((Top)
p)
Difference Perturbed
and Base Runs
Ozone (%) change
for Jan.-Jun., 2012
(Bottom)
100
100
10
10
Jan. 2012
SPE
Mar. 2012
SPE
Day of Year 2012
Stratopause
-2
-1
0
Polar NH (60-90o)
NOy (%) increase
for Jan.-Jun., 2012
((Top)
p)
Difference Perturbed
and Base Runs
Ozone (%) change
for Jan.-Jun., 2012
(Bottom)
1
1,000
GSFC 2D Model
Simulation of
May 2012
SPE
100
100
100
10
10
Jan. 2012
SPE
Mar. 2012
SPE
Day of Year 2012
-5
S
Stratopause
-2
Polar SH (60-90o)
10
-1
0
How is Total Ozone impacted?
p
GSFC 2D Model Simulation of
T t l Ozone
Total
O
% Change
Ch
iin 2012 d
due tto SPE
SPEs
-0.1
Day of Year (2012)
-0.1
-0.6
Day of Year 2012
GSFC 2D Model Simulation of
T t l Ozone
Total
O
% Change
Ch
iin 2012 d
due tto SPE
SPEs
-0.1
Compare tto:
C
1) UV-caused Total Ozone change
from solar max to min of ~1.2%
1.2%
2) Anthropogenically-causedDay
(mainly,
of Yearchlorine)
(2012)
Antarctic Total Ozone losses of ~30% since 1980
-0.1
-0.6
Day of Year 2012
IV. Conclusions
Solar Proton Events (SPEs)
• Protons influence the polar mesosphere and stratosphere
– particularly during certain years and seasons
 e.g.,
g , Near solar max;; Late Fall/Winter (downward
(
winds))
 Cause production of HOx & NOy  change in Ozone
• Large SPEs have occurred already in Solar Cycle 24
 January and March 2012
 Small
S ll computed
t d polar
l Total
T t l Ozone
O
decrease
d
Thank you for your attention!
Ozone Production by SPEs
• NOy from large SPEs (e
(e.g.
g , 2000) transported
to lower stratosphere and interfere with Cly and
Bry via
ClO + NO2  ClONO2
BrO + NO2  BrONO2
• Halogen (chlorine, bromine) loss for Ozone was
reduced
 thus Ozone was increased