Enrollment History
and Strategies
Kathie Welch
October 7, 2015
"Now, here, you see, it takes all of the running you can do to keep in the same place.
If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"
–Red Queen in Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Carrol, Drawing by John Tenniel
Fall 2015
Fall 2014
Fall 2013
Fall 2012
Fall 2011
Fall 2010
Fall 2009
Fall 2008
Fall 2007
Fall 2006
Fall 2005
Fall 2004
Fall 2003
Fall 2002
Fall 2001
Fall 2000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Fall Census
Headcount
8,000
6,000
4,000
Fall Final
FTES
2,000
-
Apportionment FTES History
Cap
Actual
16,000
14,000
12,000
FTES
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 20162001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Challenges
• Decline in overall headcount
• Regulatory changes and increased
reporting accuracy caused an overall
significant decrease in ongoing FTES
•
•
•
TBA clean up (~ 400 FTES decline
over two years)
Positive hours reporting change in
Athletics and performing arts in VAPA
from 11-12 to 12-13 (~ 150 to 200
FTES decline)
FTES decline Changes in flex time
regulatory reporting (~ 600 FTES
decline)
• Aligning enrollment data reporting
tools: tracker, XFTE, CSAR, 320
• Curricular changes
• Repeatability
• Other legislative changes in financial
aid and registration priorities
• Capacity constraints
•
•
•
Large lecture classrooms
Wet Labs
Online instruction
Opportunities
• Distance Education and
cybersession
• Summer Terms
• Long term trend towards
more full time enrollments
• Enhance retention
• Aligned enrollment data
reporting tools: tracker,
XFTE, CSAR, 320
• Section coding corrections
(~ +15 FTES)
• SSSP and Equity funding
(retention and success of
existing students improved)
• Hopefully moves the needle
to get more through basic
skills to transfer
• Noncredit CTE certificates
• Increased business
partnerships that can
increase enrollments
• Concurrent HS students
High Level Enrollment Projections
Best Case – 1% Down
2014-15
Summer 1
Fall
Spring
Summer 2
PS Inservice
Inservice – Additional
Total
587
5,006
4,669
629
10,891
Mid Case – 2% Down
2014-15
Summer 1
Fall
Spring
Summer 2
PS Inservice
Inservice – Additional
Total
587
5,006
4,669
629
Worst Case – 3% Down
Summer 1
Fall
Spring
Summer 2
PS Inservice
Inservice – Additional
Total
10,891
2014-15
587
5,006
4,669
629
10,891
2015-16 2016-17
Bdgt Stblty
89
368
4,758
4,758
4,523
4,523
350
460
300
300
10,020
10,409
2015-16 2016-17
Bdgt Stblty
89
268
4,710
4,710
4,478
4,478
450
650
300
300
10,027
10,406
2015-16 2016-17
Bdgt Stblty
89
193
4,662
4,662
4,432
4,432
525
718
300
300
10,008
258 remain
10,305
68 remain
The following assumptions are made for the
mid-case scenario:
• 2% decline in 15-16 primary terms as
compared to 14-15 primary terms
• 232 tus permanently removed in 15-16
• Summers are not balanced (used both
summers in 14-15)
• Use most of summer 2 in 15-16
(summer 16)
• Use most of summer 2 in 16-17
(summer 17)
• Growth potential from new FTES cap
• DE
• STEAM
• Enhanced Noncredit program
• Fitness Education Center
• Summer session
• Concurrent High School
• Enrollment
• Other
Thank You!