The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report Professor Michael E. Porter Harvard Business School Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Vietnam Competitiveness Report Launch Hanoi, Vietnam November 30, 2010 1 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The Vietnam Competitiveness Report Objectives • Provide policy makers and external observers with a data-rich assessment of Vietnam’s competitiveness, using a comprehensive internationally-accepted methodology • Develop an integrated set of policy recommendations, supported by a transparent logic and data • Engage decision makers from different constituencies in a dialogue on the future of Vietnam’s competitiveness Partners Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 2 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report • Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model • Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness • A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 3 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Position in 2010 • Significant growth over the last two decades • Widespread reduction in poverty • Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 4 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Long-Term Prosperity Growth 1975 - 2009 GDP per Capita, PPP adjusted $3,500 in 1990 US$ CAGR: +2.47% CAGR: +5.00% CAGR: +6.15% $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 1986: Doi Moi Reform $1,500 Global Financial Crisis $1,000 1997: Asian Crisis $500 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 $0 Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010) Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 5 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Position in 2010 • Significant growth over the last two decades • Widespread reduction in poverty • Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis BUT • Still low level of prosperity and productivity • Growing concerns about the economic sustainability of Vietnam’s current development model Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 6 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Prosperity Performance Selected Countries, 1999 to 2009 PPP-adjusted GDP per Capita, 2009 ($USD) $50,000 United States $45,000 Hong Kong Australia $40,000 Singapore $35,000 Taiwan Japan $30,000 New Zealand South Korea $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 Malaysia $10,000 Thailand China $5,000 Philippines Bangladesh Indonesia Laos Vietnam India Cambodia $0 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000 to 2009 Source: EIU (2010) Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM , authors calculations 7 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Labor Productivity PPP-adjusted GDP per Employee, 1990-$USD $45,000 $40,000 South Korea $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 Thailand $10,000 China Indonesia Vietnam $5,000 $0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010) Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 8 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model • Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth • Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported inputs to serve global markets, and increasingly also domestic demand Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 9 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Drivers of Structural Change: Economic Openness Openness to Trade Openness to Investment 10% Vietnam Vietnam 8% 40% Change in net flows of inward FDI as % of GDP (1989-2009) Change in Exports as % of GDP (1989-2009) 50% Thailand 30% Malaysia 20% China India 10% Philippines Indonesia 0% 6% 4% India 2% Indonesia 0% Thailand Philippines -2% Malaysia -4% Myanmar Singapore China -6% -10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 100% 5% 10% Net flows of inward FDI as % of GDP, 2009 Total Exports as % of GDP, 2009 Source: EIU (2010) Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 10 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The Growth of the FDI Sector Profits (return on fixed capital) Growth (2000 = 100) 450 30% 400 Profits 25% 350 300 20% 250 15% 200 150 10% # Firms 100 Workers 50 5% Fixed Capital 0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 11 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Structural Change and Vietnamese Growth Decomposing Vietnamese Labor Productivity Growth, 2000 - 2008 Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam; ACI calculations Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 12 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model • Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth • Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand • Despite increasing exports of processed goods, value added and productivity in Vietnam’s export sector remains low • Vietnam’s strongest export market position is in labor- and natural endowmentdriven clusters with little direct linkages between them • Vietnam’s attractiveness to investors is almost solely the result of the low prevailing wages • In a changing global market environment, this is unlikely to be sufficient for sustained growth Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 13 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Relative Wages: Selected Countries Avg. monthly wage (US$) 2000 $1,809.91 1800 1600 1400 1200 $1,146.47 1000 $829.71 800 $540.45 600 $336.04 400 $166.95 200 $156.19 $117.15 $82.29 $48.72 $47.36 am bo d ia m C /J a In d on es ia he n a/ S hi n C Vi et na ka rt a en zh an gk /B nd ai la Th /M et ro M an ok ila a ay si Ph ili pp in es M al an iw Ta Ko re a h So ut po re Si na Ja pa n 0 Source: Philippines Department of Labor and Employment (2010) Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 14 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Exports By Type of Industry World Export Market Share (current USD) Processed Goods 0.8% Semi-processed Goods Unprocessed Goods Services 0.7% TOTAL 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: UNComTrade, WTO (2010) Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 15 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio 1997 - 2009 5.0% Footwear (4.67%, 8.21% ) Change In Vietnam’s average world export share: 0.275% Vietnam’s world export market share, 2009 4.5% Fishing and Fishing Products 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% Apparel Coal and Briquettes 2.5% Agricultural Products 2.0% Lighting and Electrical 1.5% 1.0% Leather and Related Products Building Fixtures and Equipment Oil and Gas Furniture Entertainment and Reproduction Equipment Textiles Construction Materials Vietnam’s average world export share: 0.416% Communications Equipment 0.5% Motor Driven Products Metals and Mining Plastics Information Technology 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Jewelry, Precious Metals and Collectibles 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Change in Vietnam’s world export market share, 1997 – 2009 Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 16 Exports of US $2 Billion = Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Share of World Exports by Cluster Vietnam, 2008 World Market Share 0.5% - 1.5% 1.5% - 5% 5% - 10% Fishing & Fishing Products Hospitality & Tourism Agricultural Products Transportation & Logistics Processed Food Distribution Services Jewelry & Precious Metals Business Services Financial Services Entertainment Textiles Prefabricated Enclosures Furniture Building Fixtures, Equipment & Services Aerospace Vehicles & Information Defense Tech. Motor Driven Products Heavy Machinery Production Technology Tobacco Automotive Oil & Gas Footwear Forest Products Power Generation ceuticals Chemical Products Apparel Heavy Construction Services Lightning & Electrical Equipment Analytical Education & Instruments Knowledge Medical Creation Devices Communications Publishing Equipment & Printing Biopharma- Construction Materials Aerospace Mining & Metal Engines Manufacturing Plastics Leather & Related Products Sporting & Recreation Goods Marine Equipment Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both directions. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 17 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The External Environment in 2010 Opportunities Threats • Opportunities to serve new demand – Emergence of Asia – Increasing market of consumers with similar needs as in Vietnam • Disruptions that could limit demand – Rising protectionism – Overheating in China; sluggish growth elsewhere – Climate change • New opportunities as a supply base – Cost pressure on global companies – China + 1 strategy of MNCs • Competition that could reduce Vietnams attractiveness – From other low-wage locations – From within the increasingly open ASEAN region Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 18 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model Emerging Weaknesses • Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 19 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Balance of Trade 1995 – 2008 US$M Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 20 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model Emerging Weaknesses • Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit • Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 21 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Currency Valuation Index (2000 = 100) 160 CPI VN/ CPI USA 150 140 130 120 Exchange Rate Index VN 110 100 90 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: 2000-2008 data – WDI; 2009 data – EIU Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 22 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model Emerging Weaknesses • Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit • Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit • Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation • Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than control it Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 23 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Rate of Inflation Selected Countries, 2000 - 2009 % change in CPI 25% 20% 15% Vietnam Indonesia 10% Malaysia China Thailand 5% 0% -5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: EIU 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 24 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model Emerging Weaknesses • Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit • Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit • Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation • Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than control it • Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital inflows to maintain the growth rate • Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of skills and infrastructure Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 25 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Ease of Worker Recruitment Percentage of Firms that report Difficulty in Recruiting Source: Junichi Mori , Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy, and Pham Truong Hoang (2009) – data drawn from Japanese-Affiliated Manufacturers in Asia, JETRO. Note: Surveys in 2003-2004 did not include questions about recruitment of general workers Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 26 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Current Development Model Emerging Weaknesses • Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand drive growing trade deficit • Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit • Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation • Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than control it • Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital inflows to maintain the growth rate • Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of skills and infrastructure • The gap between announced and implemented FDI is rising Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 27 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam 1988 - 2008 US $M 70,000 Registered 60,000 Actively Invested 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: General Statistics Office,Vietnam Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 28 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report • Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model • Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness • A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 29 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Determinants of Competitiveness Microeconomic Competitiveness Quality of the National Business Environment State of Cluster Development Sophistication of Company Operations and Strategy Macroeconomic Competitiveness Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions Macroeconomic Policies Endowments • Macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high productivity, but is not sufficient • Productivity ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local competition Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 30 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Macroeconomic Competitiveness Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions • • • • Fiscal policy – – Basic education Health system • Political institutions – – – – – • • Human development – – Macroeconomic Policies Monetary policy – Political freedom Voice and accountability Political stability Government effectiveness Centralization of economic policymaking Government surplus/deficit Government debt Inflation Rule of law – – – – – Security Judicial independence Efficiency of legal framework Business costs of corruption Civil rights Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 31 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Determinants of Competitiveness Microeconomic Competitiveness Quality of the National Business Environment State of Cluster Development Sophistication of Company Operations and Strategy Sophistication of Company Operations and Strategy Macroeconomic Competitiveness Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions • Macroeconomic Policies Endowments Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 32 The internal skills, capabilities, and management practices needed for companies to attain the highest level of productivity and innovation possible Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Determinants of Competitiveness Microeconomic Competitiveness Quality of the National Business Environment • Quality of the National Business Environment Macroeconomic Competitiveness Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions The external business environment conditions that allow companies to reach high levels of productivity and innovation Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Sophistication of Company Operations and Strategy State of Cluster Development Macroeconomic Policies Endowments 33 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Quality of the National Business Environment Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry Factor (Input) Conditions • Local rules and incentives that encourage investment and productivity Open and vigorous local competition Demand Conditions • Access to high quality business inputs • Sophisticated and demanding local customers and needs Related and Supporting Industries • Availability of suppliers and supporting industries • Many things matter for competitiveness • Successful economic development is a process of successive upgrading, in which the business environment improves to enable increasingly sophisticated ways of competing Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 34 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Determinants of Competitiveness Microeconomic Competitiveness Quality of the National Business Environment Sophistication of Company Operations and Strategy State of Cluster Development Macroeconomic Competitiveness Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions State of Cluster Development • Endowments A geographic concentration of firms, specialized assets, and institutions in particular fields. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Macroeconomic Policies 35 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The Thai Automotive Cluster Assemblers Steel Plastics Motorcycles Passenger Cars Distribution Pickup Trucks Finance Rubber&Tires Testing Electronics Glass Leather & Fabric Components and Module Makers (1st tier) Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire, Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems Specialized Consultants Services Parts (2nd & 3rd tiers) Machinery Stamping, Plastics, Rubber, Machining, Casting, Forging, Function, Electrical, Trimming Tools Mold&Die Government Jig&Fixture Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22study 10AM Source: Sasin-team analysis, 2003 Education and Technical Institutions 36 Associations Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Clusters and Competitiveness • Clusters increase productivity and operational efficiency • Clusters stimulate and enable innovations • Clusters facilitate commercialization and new business formation • Clusters reflect the fundamental influence of linkages and spill-overs across firms and associated institutions in competition Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 37 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Stages of National Competitive Development Shifting Policy Imperatives Factor-Driven Economy InvestmentDriven Economy Low Cost Inputs Productivity • Macro, political, and legal stability • Improving human capital • Efficient basic infrastructure • Lowering regulatory costs of doing business • • • • Increasing local rivalry Market opening Advanced infrastructure Incentives and rules encouraging productivity • Cluster formation and activation InnovationDriven Economy Unique Value • Advanced skills • Scientific and technological institutions • Incentives and rules encouraging innovation • Cluster upgrading Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990 Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 38 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Competitiveness Profile Position Relative to Current Prosperity Overall Competitiveness Macroeconomic Competitiveness Political Institutions Microeconomic Competitiveness Macroeconomic Policy National Business Environment Company Operations and Strategy Rule of Law Significant advantage Moderate advantage Human Development Neutral Moderate disadvantage Significant disadvantage Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 39 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Corruption Perception Index, 2009 Rank in Global Corruption Index, 2009 -1 Low corruption Denmark New Zealand Switzerland Finland Singapore Australia Canada Iceland Improving Hong Kong Luxembourg Norway Germany Ireland United Kingdom Austria Japan USA Belgium Chile France Israel Spain Taiwan Portugal South Korea Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Malaysia Turkey Deteriorating -11 -21 -31 -41 Italy Greece Brazil -51 China Thailand -61 India Mexico Indonesia High corruption Vietnam Argentina -71 Philippines -81 Russia -91 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Change in Rank, Global Corruption Report, 2009 versus 2001 Note: Ranks only countries available in both years (91 countries total) Source: Global Corruption Report, 2009 Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 40 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s National Business Environment Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry Factor (Input) Conditions Basic physical infrastructure in place; low effectiveness of the significant ongoing further investments Solid communication infrastructure as a result of liberalization and competition Growing but still shallow financial system; highly volatile and speculative, with limited access to credit for new private companies Education system is expanding but provides largely insufficient quality; serious shortage of skilled labor Modest performance on administrative infrastructure, but major reforms (e.g. Project 30) under way Poor innovation infrastructure Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM High level of openness to foreign investors WTO/ASEAN liberalization commitments but remaining important barriers Weak competition policy and enforcement Unequal competition among companies, with SOEs receiving special treatment Competition focused on price, not quality Unclear separation of government role as a regulator from that as an owner Equitization of SOEs not oriented towards improving performance Demand Conditions Sizeable and growing market Low, yet improving, sophistication of local customers Weak regulatory quality standards and enforcement Related and Supporting Industries Natural emergence of clusters, but focus on narrow activities with weak presence of local suppliers and service providers Shallow roots of FDI in the local economy Sector-oriented policies ineffective and not systematically focused on clusters 41 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Regulatory Quality: Selected Countries Composite Measure of Regulatory Quality 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Malaysia 0.0 Thailand China Vietnam -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: World Bank Institute, Global governance indicators, 2009. Values for 1997, 1999 and 2001 have been interpolated. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 42 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Sophistication of Vietnamese Companies • High levels of flexibility and responsiveness to market opportunities • Short-term, opportunistic company strategies • Compete primarily on cost, not quality • Low level of operational sophistication • Large SOEs operating as corporate groups with little synergy • Huge gap in operational effectiveness and productivity between Vietnamese SOEs, Vietnamese private companies, and foreign MNCs Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 43 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Competitiveness in 2010: Summary • Vietnam’s key current competitive advantages are based on inherited endowments, especially its geographic location and demographic profile • Government has realized these advantages through market opening and investments in basic infrastructure • Vietnam has not created new, distinctive competitive advantages • Government efforts to meet the infrastructure and regulatory needs of a growing economy are hampered by a regulatory approach focused on control • While the development model has been successful, signs of its fragility are increasing • Vietnam needs an economic strategy based on a new development model Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 44 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report • Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model • Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness • A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 45 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Towards a New Strategy: Three Guiding Principles A new orientation towards competitiveness • From a focus on macroeconomic drivers of structural change to upgrading macro- and microeconomic foundations of productivity Structural transformation in the role of the private sector • From a focus on SOEs and foreign MNCs to a market-driven combination of private firms, MNCs, and transformed SOE’s A new role for government • From a government controlling a transition economy to a government creating competitive advantages in a market economy Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 46 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Competitiveness Agenda Strategic Action Priorities Address emerging challenges Manage the growing macroeconomic imbalances Prepare for the next stage of development Address emerging bottlenecks in key input factors Secure current growth Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Create the foundations for higher productivity Enable future growth 47 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Manage Macroeconomic Imbalances Key Action Proposals • Increase transparency of fiscal position of the government and SOEs – Create central entity with mandate to report on fiscal position of all government entities and of SOEs and on the current state of the economy • Enhance budget discipline – Establish regular monitoring/auditing of public spending – Strengthen quality and effectiveness of public debt management • Pursue a consistent and predictable monetary policy – Clarify roles of the National Assembly, the government, and the Central Bank – Set clear monetary policy goals • Improve financial market regulation – Enhance regulatory oversight of the financial system through the Central Bank • Coordinate overall macroeconomic policy over time – Strengthen mandate and operations of the Central Committee for Financial and Monetary Policies Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 48 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Address Microeconomic Bottlenecks Key Action Proposals • Microeconomic bottlenecks are emerging in physical infrastructure (transport, energy), workforce skills, and administrative capacity • The government has identified all of these areas as action priorities • However, current policies lack effectiveness, despite sometimes significant financial commitments Outlines of a new approach • Identify and alleviate problems in established regional clusters • Focus individual cluster efforts on the most pressing bottlenecks • Create cluster-based task-forces with the mandate and power to take action • Learn from cluster problems about general issues and possible nation-wide solutions Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 49 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Possible Cluster Initiatives Electronics & engineering cluster in Hanoi and neighboring regions: Local supplier capacity Tourism cluster in the Central Region: Concept and related services Garment cluster in Ho Chi Minh Region: Workforce skills Logistics cluster in Ho Chi Minh City region: Infrastructure Agro-processing cluster in the Mekong Delta region: Value-added Activities Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 50 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Create the Foundations for Higher Productivity Key Action Proposals: Policies • Enhance education and workforce skills – Develop a national workforce strategy with rigorous studies on the type of skills and competencies required for future growth – Reform the regulatory framework for the education sector – Promote vocational training – Set up a National Productivity Fund to support cluster-based initiatives in skill upgrading efforts • Improve physical infrastructure – Create a centralized planning mechanism to coordinate, oversee and evaluate infrastructure development – Strengthen the system for managing public procurement – Provide viable market-based financing options for infrastructure investment – Address electricity shortages through a utility action package of investment, market regulation and technological measures Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 51 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Create the Foundations for Higher Productivity Key Action Proposals: Policies (continued) • Improve governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) – Separate the role of the government as an owner from that as a regulator – Define and enforce modern governance standards for SOEs – Ensure competition and market discipline in the markets in which SOEs operate – Improve the equitization process and define policy for effective management of divestment proceedings • Enhance the approach to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Attraction – Develop a new FDI attraction strategy for Vietnam – Strengthen the capacity of the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA) – Set up outreach initiatives with foreign MNCs to build the local supplier base and clusters around foreign investments Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 52 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Create the Foundations for Higher Productivity Key Action Proposals: Policies (continued) • Pursue a Cluster-Based Development Model – Re-organize existing policies around clusters, especially in areas linked to investment attraction, workforce skill development, industrial parks, and SME/private sector-development. – Conduct a national cluster mapping project to identify and assess clusters across the country – Encourage the launch of pilot cluster initiatives through the creation of a Vietnamese Cluster Initiative Fund Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 53 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The Role of Government in Cluster Initiatives Government should • Support all existing and emerging clusters • Participate • Enable data collection and dissemination at the cluster level • Be ready to implement recommendations Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Government may • Initiate/ Convene • Co-Finance 54 Government should not • Pick favored clusters • Pick favored companies • Subsidize or distort competition • Define cluster action priorities Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter Industrial Policy versus Cluster-Based Policy Industrial Policy Cluster-Based Policy • Leverage existing assets, history, and geographic location • Target areas of perceived market demand or attractive technology • All clusters are good • Intervene in competition (subsidies, protection, etc.) • Enable competition to be more productive and sophisticated • Favor domestic companies • Neutral on ownership • Require sustained financial commitment by the public sector • Require sustained participation by all actors • Centralize decisions at the national level • Encourage initiative at all geographic levels • Has a high failure rate; short term impact but low sustainability • Has rising impact over time; some quick successes are possible Distort and impede competition Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Enhance and upgrade competition 55 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Organize Public Policy around Clusters Business Attraction Education and Workforce Training Science and Technology Infrastructure (e.g., centers, university departments, technology transfer) Export Promotion Clusters Market Information and Disclosure Setting standards Specialized Physical Environmental Stewardship Infrastructure Natural Resource Protection • Clusters provide a framework for organizing the implementation of many public policies and public investments directed at economic development Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 56 Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter Clusters, Growth, and Diversification Grow activities in related clusters Grow activities in new industries within existing clusters Upgrade the quality of activities in existing clusters Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 57 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Create the Foundations for Higher Productivity Key Action Proposals: Architecture • Professionalize the Policy Process – Creation of a central Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) unit to review existing and a new laws and regulations – Establishment of an institutionalized review process for draft laws and regulations hat invites stakeholders to comment – Development of a medium-term budget planning process with rolling updates • Enhance Public Sector Capacity – Establishment a Prime Minister’s Policy Unit – Launch an anti-corruption campaign – Review of the current training system for public officials, starting with pilot agencies – Develop comprehensive civil service reform program with modernization of organizational structures and HR practices, including hiring, pay, promotion, etc. Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 58 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter The Process of Economic Development Shifting Roles and Responsibilities Old Model New Model • Government drives economic development through policy decisions and incentives • Economic development is a collaborative process involving government at multiple levels, companies, teaching and research institutions, and private sector organizations • Competitiveness is the result of both top-down and bottom-up processes in which many individuals, companies, and institutions take relevant decisions Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 59 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Create the Foundations for Higher Productivity Key Action Proposals: Architecture (continued) • Strengthen Regional government – Launch funding competition for development of regional economic development strategies – Develop a knowledge and skill infrastructure for regional development – Review the current structure of authority delegation between the central and regional governments Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 60 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Geographic Levels Influencing Competitiveness World Economy WTO Broad Economic Areas South-East Asia Groups of Neighboring Nations Greater Mekong Region • The business environment at a given location is the cumulative outcome of policy at all levels of geography • Microeconomic competitiveness raises the importance of lower levels of geography Nations Vietnam States, Provinces Vietnamese provinces Metropolitan and Rural Areas Hanoi region Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM • The allocation of responsibilities across levels of geography is a crucial policy challenge 61 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Regions and Competitiveness • Economic performance varies significantly across sub-national regions (e.g., provinces, states, metropolitan areas) • Many essential levers of competitiveness reside at the regional level • Region’s specialize in different sets of clusters • Cluster strength directly impacts regional performance • Each region requires its own distinctive competitiveness agenda • Improving competitiveness requires effective policy collaboration between regions and the national government • Decentralization is important to foster regional specialization, internal competition, and greater government accountability • Effective decentralization requires clarity on roles and responsibilities, and sufficient administrative capacity at local and regional level Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 62 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Implementation Model Creating a National Competitiveness Council National Competitiveness Council Coordinate Task Forces Agencies Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM Monitor Action Report Action Action 63 Public Government Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Sequencing Microeconomic Reforms National Institutional Reforms National Policy Reforms Regional Cluster Efforts • Upgrade quality of policy design through institutional reforms • Translate cluster experience into better national policies • Develop local solutions in regional clusters • A bottom-up approach with gradually increasing scope is more likely to engage all relevant constituencies than traditional top-down efforts Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 64 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Creating a National Economic Strategy for Vietnam National Value Proposition • What is the distinctive competitive position of Vietnam given its location, legacy, existing strengths, and potential strengths? – What unique value as a business location? – For what types of activities and clusters? – And what roles with neighbors, the region, and the broader world? Achieving and Maintaining Parity with Peers Developing Unique Strengths • What elements of the business environment can be unique strengths relative to peers/neighbors? • What existing and emerging clusters represent local strengths? • What weaknesses must be addressed to remove key constraints and achieve parity with peer countries? • Priorities and sequencing are necessity in economic development Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 65 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Role of a National Value Proposition • The value proposition should be an inspiration to the Vietnamese population • The value proposition is a signal to companies from abroad and at home about what assets and conditions can expect to find in Vietnam • The value proposition is a signal to policy makers in Vietnam of what type of improvements are most critical in order to make the value proposition a reality Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 66 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Towards A Value Proposition for Vietnam What is Unique about Vietnam? What is Vietnam’s Value Proposition? • Location • Access to a growing market and region • Demographics • Legacy of influence from China, Europe, US • Second manufacturing location • Natural resources • Established positions in selected global markets (footwear, apparel, coffee, and seafood products) • Strong clusters in areas like footwear, apparel, coffee, and seafood products with potential to upgrade sophistication • Others • Others Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM • Integration/access to ASEAN 67 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter Vietnam’s Competitiveness Challenge: From Ambition to Action Provide access to existing comparative advantages Enable emergence of new competitive advantages Low labor costs Natural endowments Productivity Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 68 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter