Growing brands by understanding
what Chinese shoppers really do
China Shopper Report 2013, Vol. 2
Copyright © 2013 Bain & Company, Inc. and Kantar Worldpanel
All rights reserved.
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Contents
1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 3
2.
China’s evolving market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 3
3.
The state of competition between foreign and Chinese brands. . . . . . . . . . . pg. 10
4.
Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 14
Page 1
During the past two decades, a steady stream of foreign brands
has entered the Chinese market and achieved impressive
growth. Competition between foreign and local players has
never been as fierce as it is today. This volume of the China
Shopper Report 2013 explores how the battle for Chinese
shoppers has intensified in a changing environment that features
slower rates of growth as well as rapid adoption of e-commerce.
The insights will help both types of competitors capture their
share of China’s growth.
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Introduction
China has become the world’s biggest battleground for
consumer goods sales as both foreign and local
companies aggressively compete for shoppers with
rising incomes. In this follow-up to our report
“Growing brands by understanding what Chinese
shoppers really do,” published in July 2013, we explore
the intensifying battle between foreign and local
players in the context of China’s rapidly evolving
market. Our discussion builds on our groundbreaking
research into the behavior of Chinese shoppers, first
presented last year, and in particular, our report on the
battle between foreign and local brands (see “What
Chinese shoppers really do but will never tell you,”
China Shopper Report 2012, Vol. 3).
Our insights are based on a joint study by Bain &
Company and Kantar Worldpanel, in which we
analyzed the behavior of 40,000 Chinese households
from 373 cities in 20 provinces and four major
municipalities. Over the past two years, this ongoing
study has provided an unprecedented look at how
shoppers purchase by region and by city in 26 important
consumer products categories ranging from milk to
shampoo (see Figure 1). The comprehensive study
covers all Chinese city tiers, categories in different
development stages and all shoppers’ life stages.
China’s evolving market
The market for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs)
in China is characterized by slowing growth rates
overall, but rapid adoption of e-commerce. Each of
these developments has major implications for both
foreign and local companies.
The overall slowdown in growth rates of FMCG
categories that started in the third quarter of 2011 has
continued through the second quarter of 2013. This is
Figure 1: We studied the same 26 consumer goods categories in mainland China as in 2012
Traditional packaged
food & beverage
Beverage
Created packaged
food & beverage
Packaged
food
Beverage
Packaged
food
Non-food & beverage
Nonfood & beverage
Personal care
Home care
Juice
Ready-to-drink
(RTD) tea
Candy
Carbonated
soft drink
(CSD)
Chewing
gum
Color
cosmetics
Shampoo
Toothpaste
Kitchen
cleaner
Fabric
detergent
Beer
Bottled water
Biscuits
Milk
Chocolate
Skin care
Hair
conditioner
Toothbrush
Facial
tissue
Fabric
softener
Instant
noodles
Yogurt
Infant
forumula*
Personal
wash
Baby
diapers*
*Data for infant formula and baby diapers from Kantar Baby Panel
Note: Data was drawn from mainland China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 3
Toilet
tissue
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Figure 2: Overall, the FMCG industry’s growth has been slowing recently, with a steep slowdown in
early 2013
Annual growth of urban shoppers’ total spending on FMCG (%)
20%
15
10
5
0
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
2012
Total FMCG
Q2
2013
F&B
Non-F&B
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Figure 3: The trend toward “premiumization” of brands continued during 2012
Change in annual average selling price (ASP) per kilogram*,
sorted by price differences in 2011 and 2012 (%)
19
20%
16
14
12
10
11
11
9
7
9
6
7
7
7
8
9
11
6
8
9
11
10
2010--2011 F&B
average: 11%
11
8
6
2011--2012 F&B
average: 9%
3
1
0
-10
Instant
noodles
Beer
Milk
Biscuits
Yogurt
RTD tea
CSD
Infant Chewing
formula
gun
2010--2011
Candy Chocolate Juice**
2011--2012
*The ASP is RMB/kilogram for packaged food and RMB/liter for beverage. **Juice excluded plant protein drink, such as coconut drink and walnut drink
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 4
Bottled
water
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
affecting both food & beverage (F&B) and other
categories, and the impact can be observed in most of
our selected 26 categories.
Overall, the growth rates of FMCG categories have
declined from approximately 15% in the second quarter
of 2011 to 7% in the second quarter of 2013. During
this period, the growth rates of F&B categories declined
from 16% to 7%, while the growth rates of non-F&B
categories declined from 12% to 7% (see Figure 2).
This slowdown is marginally driven by price, as the
trend toward “premiumization” of brands continued
during 2012 (through either the launch of premium
products or a price increase for existing products). For
the 13 F&B categories in the group we studied, the
increase in price per unit (in kilograms or liters)
between 2011 and 2012 was 9%, compared with 11%
between 2010 and 2011 (see Figure 3). For the 13
non-F&B categories, the increase in price per unit
between 2011 and 2012 was 4%, which is the same as
the percentage change between 2010 and 2011 and a
level slightly above inflation (see Figure 4).
Although the overall growth rate is slowing, the
e-commerce channel is experiencing explosive growth.
It is still early days for e-commerce in FMCG categories,
as online sales represent approximately 1.8% of total
2012 FMCG sales value, yet the rate of growth is rapid,
at approximately 55% from 2011 to 2012 (see Figure
5). E-commerce penetration (the percentage of
households that purchased FMCGs online at least once
a year) increased from 18% in 2011 to 25% in 2012 (see
Figure 6). The average price per item was higher
online, although the frequency of purchases was lower
than offline.
Online penetration has increased across all 26
categories, and it has reached very high levels in baby
products, skin care and color cosmetics. These
categories account for approximately 60% of total
e-commerce spending. In 2012, online sales
Page 5
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Figure 4: In non-F&B categories, premiumization in 2012 was 4%—just above inflation and the same
as in 2011
Change in annual average selling price (ASP) per kilogram*,
sorted by price differences in 2011 and 2012 (%)
20%
17
10
10
7
9
8
6
5
4
3
0
13
12
11
3
4
5
5
2
6
4
8
2010--2011 and
2011--2012 non-F&B
averages: 4%
6
3
2
1
0
-5
Toilet
tissue
-10
Hair
conditioner
Facial
tissue
Fabric
detergent
Fabric
softener
Kitchen
cleaner
Shampoo
Baby
diapers
Personal
wash
2010--2011
Toothpaste
Color
cosmetics
Skin
care
Toothbrush
2011--2012
*The ASP is RMB/100 rolls for toilet tissue, RMB/100 pieces for facial tissue, RMB/1000 pieces for baby diaper and RMB/pack for skin care and color cosmetics
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Figure 5: E-commerce saw explosive growth in 2012 but still accounts for less than 2% of total FMCG sales
Channel value share in FMCG urban retail market (%)
100%
80
60
1.8
1.3
CAGR
1.7
1.8
4.3
4.4
24.1
24.2
25.9
(2011--2012)
E-Commerce
Department Stores
25.6
40
28.3
28.4
14.3
14.0
2011
2012
20
0
55%
8%
Specialist Stores
13%
Grocery
13%
Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Mini-Marts
11%
Hypermarkets
13%
Other Channels
10%
Note: 106 FMCG categories cover ambient and chilled food and drink, personal care and household products, excluding fresh food, white goods and electronic items; Others
include direct sales, free mart, beauty salon, drug store, milk store, overseas purchase, wholesales, TV shopping and work unit; 2012 is from July 2011 through June 2012, and
2011 is from July 2010 through June 2011
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 6
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Figure 6: E-commerce penetration continues to grow, but annual spending is far lower than in other channels
Household penetration by channel
Household annual spending by channel
Penetration rate comparison (%, 2011 vs. 2012)
Annual spending per household (RMB, 2011 vs. 2012)
3,000
100%
88
80
75
88
76
2,000
60
40
2,028
2,188
1,570
+1.5%
1,699
-0.1%
18
20
1,000
25
+7.9%
+8.2%
373
+35%
0
2011 2012
2011 2012
2011 2012
Hypermarket
Supermarket
E-commerce
0
418
+11.8%
2011 2012
2011 2012
2011 2012
Hypermarket
Supermarket
E-commerce
Note: Data includes 106 FMCG categories covering ambient and chilled food & drink, personal care and household products, excluding fresh food, white goods and
electronic items; supermarket includes convenience stores and mini-marts
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Typical grocery categories, such as home care and
beverage, are still emerging in e-commerce but
growing rapidly. For example, the online revenues in
the beer category accounted for only approximately
0.16% of the category’s total sales in 2012, but these
revenues had a growth rate of 208% from 2011 to 2012.
Our in-depth analysis revealed that shoppers
maintained their repertoire or loyalist behavior in these
categories in the online channel: shoppers in the skin
care category exhibit repertoire behavior online, just as
they do offline, and infant formula is a loyalist category
in both channels (see Figure 8). In fact, the repertoire
nature of the skin care category may be more
pronounced online compared with offline, owing to
the wider range of choices available and the absence of
constraints related to shelf space.
To conduct an in-depth analysis of shopping behavior
online, we selected two categories for which online
sales are already significant: skin care and infant
formula. In our previous studies, we identified skin
care as a category in which shoppers exhibit “repertoire”
behavior (the tendency to choose different brands for
the same occasion or need) and infant formula as one
in which they exhibit “loyalist” behavior (repeatedly
buying one brand for a specific need or occasion).
Consistent with this finding, the online market share
concentrated in the top 10 brands is approximately 31%
for skin care and approximately 80% for infant
formula, which is similar to the levels in stores (see
Figure 9). The top 10 brands are similar online and
offline in skin care (although in a different order). For
infant formula, the top brands differ online because of
the recent introduction of online-focused brands such
as Karicare, Nutrilon and Friso.
represented 25% of total sales value for baby diapers,
19% for infant formula and approximately 10% for
skin care and color cosmetics (see Figure 7).
Page 7
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Figure 7: For baby products, skin care and color cosmetics, the online sales channel is already critical
... and penetration
Rapid growth in sales ...
Online sales 2012 (% of total sales value)
Online penetration 2012
(% of households that purchase at least once online in a year)
30%
30%
29
2011
25
19
20
28
2011
20
13
10
10
9
10
4
0
Baby diapers
Infant
formula
Skin care
0
Color
cosmetics
Baby diapers
Infant
formula
Skin care
Color
cosmetics
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Figure 8: Shoppers’ behaviors in key categories do not seem to change online
Loyalist example: infant formula
Repertoire example: skin care
Average number of brands purchased per household
per year 2012
8
Average number of brands purchased per household
per year 2012
8
Online heavy shopper
Online heavy shopper
Online average shopper
6
Online average shopper
6
Offline heavy shopper
Offline heavy shopper
Offline average shopper
Offline average shopper
4
4
2
2
0
0
10
20
Category purchasing frequency (average number of
purchase occasions per household per year, 2012)
30
0
0
10
20
Category purchasing frequency (average number of
purchase occasions per household per year, 2012)
Note: Kantar Baby Panel covers key and A cities in China; key cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, and A cities include 24 provincial cities
Sources: Kantar Baby Panel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 8
30
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Figure 9: Concentration level* differs among categories but is similar for both online and offline
Loyalist example: infant formula
Repertoire example: skin care
Market share among online and offline shoppers (%)
Market share among online and offline shoppers (%)
100%
100%
Others
80
60
80
Others
60
40
20
0
Share of top
10 brands (%)
40
20
Top 10
brands
Online shoppers
31
Top 10
brands
0
Offline shoppers
Share of top
10 brands (%)
35
*Concentration level means the market share of top 10 brands in a category
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 9
Online shoppers
81
Offline shoppers
82
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
The state of competition
between foreign and
Chinese brands
chocolate), and categories that are health related and
for which trust is required (such as infant formula and
baby diapers) (see Figure 11).
In the changing environment, Chinese brands have
performed better overall than foreign brands in most
categories. Increased penetration in all city tiers has
been the key driver of local brands’ success.
In 2012, Chinese brands captured approximately 70%
of the market growth in our selected 26 categories and
increased their market share by 0.5% (see Figure 10).
Chinese brands have dominant share in traditional
F&B categories, as would be expected, as well as in
home care. They are also very strong in categories that
require local agricultural supplies, such as milk and
yogurt. Foreign brands dominate categories that they
have recently created in China (for example, gum and
Local brands as a group gained share in 15 of our 26
categories and lost share in 11, whereas foreign brands
experienced corresponding losses and gains (see
Figure 12). The gains for local brands (and losses for
foreign brands) were especially high in oral care,
cosmetics and juice. However, foreign brands as a
group gained share in some categories that are
dominated by local brands, including bottled water and
milk. The 11 categories in which foreign brands gained
share include biscuits and fabric softener. Several
foreign brands gained share in categories in which
local brands gained share overall, although these
foreign brands are relatively small.
Foreign brands lost share across all city tiers in 2012
(see Figure 13). At the same time, Chinese brands
consistently gained share in all city tiers, especially in
tiers 3 through 5. It is important to note that even
Figure 10: Chinese players captured about 70% of the market growth in our 26 FMCG categories
Sales value of our 26 categories 2011--2012 (billion RMB)
CAGR
(2011--2012)
600
40.2
460.4
519
13%
Chinese
64.9%
14%
Foreign
35.1%
11%
18.4
400
Chinese
64.4%
200
Foreign
35.6%
0
2011
Market growth
captured (%)
Foreign
Chinese
31
69
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 10
2012
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Figure 11: Chinese brands dominate F&B categories, except those launched in China by foreign brands or
where brand trust is critical
Category market share of foreign and Chinese brands 2012 (%)
Traditional packaged
food & beverage
Beverage
100%
Created packaged
food & beverage
Packaged food
Beverage
Non-food & beverage
Non-food
& beverage
Personal care
Home care
Packaged food
80
60
40
20
0
Beer
RTD
tea
Juice
Instant
Biscuits
Yogurt Chewing
Infant
Skin
Hair
ToothBaby
Fabric
Toilet
noodles
gum
formula
care conditioner paste
diapers softener
tissue
Candy
Bottled
Milk
CSD
Chocolate Color
Personal Shampoo ToothFabric
Facial
Kitchen
water
cosmetics
wash
brush detergent tissue
cleaner
Foreign
Chinese (local, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau)
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Figure 12: Foreign brands lost share in 15 of 26 categories—notably in oral care, cosmetics and juice
Share change between foreign and Chinese brands (%, 2012 vs. 2011)
8%
Categories where foreign brands have gained share
Categories where Chinese brands have gained share
5.2
5
3.8
3.4 3.6
2.9
0
-3
-2.9
2.5
2.2
3
-2.2
1.4 1.2 1.1
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4
0.9 0.7
0.6 0.8
0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
0.2 0.4
-0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
-0.8 -1.1
-0.9 -0.7 -0.6
-1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4
-1.4 -1.2 -1.1
-2.5
-3.4 -3.6
-3.8
-5
-8
4.2
-4.2
-5.2
Biscuits
Fabric Shampoo
detergent
Fabric
softener
Bottled
water
Milk
Infant
formula
Beer
CSD
Chocolate Chewing
gum
Foreign
Instant
noodles
Yogurt
Personal
wash
Kitchen
cleaner
Candy
RTD
tea
Toilet
tissue
Facial
tissue
Hair
Baby
conditioner diapers
Chinese (local, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau)
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
Page 11
Juice
Color
cosmetics
Toothpaste
Skin
care
Toothbrush
Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
Figure 13: Foreign brands lost share across all city tiers in 2012 in all categories, with the heaviest losses
in smaller cities
Foreign share by city tier 2012 (%)
x
100%
Decrease x% share
80
60
0.1
40
36%
0.1
32%
0.9
0.9
29%
28%
1.4
25%
20
0
As % of total
foreign business
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
16
26
31
12
15
Note: Even if foreign brands gained share in 11 categories, their % share gains overall would be smaller than the share loss that they incurred in the other 15 categories, and the
weight of the categories where they gained share would be smaller; thus, overall, foreign brands lost share, and this happens to be true in all city tiers
Sources: Kantar Worldpanel; Bain & Company analysis
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Growing brands by understanding what Chinese shoppers really do, Vol. 2 | Bain & Company, Inc. | Kantar Worldpanel
though foreign brands gained share in 11 categories,
their percentage share gain in these categories overall
is smaller than the share loss that they incurred in the
other 15 categories. The weighting of the categories in
which they gained share is also smaller. Consequently,
foreign brands lost share overall, and this was the case
in all city tiers.
The share change was mainly driven by penetration
gains by Chinese brands. Indeed, Chinese brands
increased penetration across all city tiers in 2012. The
top five Chinese brands in each category increased
penetration in all city tiers, while the top five foreign
brands experienced lower penetration rates across city
tiers. Foreign brands have traditionally been stronger
in top-tier cities, but local brands are now gaining
share in these cities by increasing penetration, while
also maintaining their strength in lower-tier cities. As
we discussed in Volume 1 of our 2013 report,
penetration is the key driver of share change, and
Chinese brands seem to execute better on that
dimension than foreign brands.
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Implications
should depend on whether a category’s shoppers
exhibit stronger repertoire or loyalist behavior:
The overall slowdown in category growth means that
FMCG companies will need to rely increasingly on
gains in market share to grow a brand in China. As
discussed in Volume 1 of our 2013 report, companies
can gain market share by increasing penetration. Our
analysis shows that local brands as a group were more
successful at increasing penetration in 2012 than
foreign brands.
At the same time, foreign and local FMCG companies
must recognize and address the rapidly increasing
importance of online sales in many categories. This means
marketers should continually enhance their digital
capabilities to stay relevant to consumers. For example,
driving higher penetration online requires capabilities in
website design, fast-changing merchandising and pricing,
managing online traffic and conversations, fulfilling
orders, building partnerships with key online channel
players and managing social media.
•
In repertoire categories, marketers often build
consideration by investing in social media and
traditional national media. For example, Inoherb, a
leading local skin care brand online and offline,
raised awareness and built its reputation by
targeting social-media sites, such as Weibo and
WeChat. The company strongly enhanced its brand
consideration and penetration by launching a
program for online shoppers to test products and
share their experiences through blogs and forums.
Inoherb has also invested heavily in advertising on
CCTV and sponsored popular contests, such as the
Dance Congress, a popular televised dance
competition that features celebrity participants.
•
In loyalist categories, such as infant formula,
marketers leverage social media and consumer word
of mouth to achieve brand preference. For example,
Friso, the leading infant formula brand online, used
consumer word of mouth to become a preferred
brand.
These developments make it critical to drive penetration
both online and offline. The approach marketers select
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Our findings related to foreign and local FMCG players
reinforce a key insight set out in Volume 1 of our 2013
report: The era of growing brands by riding the wave of
high growth rates for categories has ended. In most
categories, brand growth will primarily depend on
gaining market share, which means penetration is
paramount.
As competition intensifies, we expect to see more
consolidation in both the retail and FMCG sectors. But
this does not mean that multinational companies will
absorb local players. In fact, in recent deals between
Tesco and China Resources Enterprise, Danone and
China Mengniu Dairy, and Pepsi and Master Kong, the
local companies have become the dominant partners.
Which companies will emerge as market leaders in
this wave of consolidation? Inevitably, it will be those
that have the clearest understanding of the categories
in which they compete and the behavior of Chinese
shoppers.
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About the authors
Bruno Lannes is a partner in Bain’s Shanghai office and leads the firm’s Consumer Products and Retail practices
for Greater China. You may contact him by email at bruno.lannes@bain.com
Kevin Chong is a partner in Bain’s Shanghai office. You may contact him by email at kevin.chong@bain.com
James Root is a partner in Bain’s Hong Kong office. You may contact him by email at james.root@bain.com
Fiona Liu is a manager in Bain’s Shanghai office. You may contact her by email at fiona.liu@bain.com
Mike Booker is a partner in Bain’s Singapore office and leads the firm’s Consumer Products and Retail practices
for Asia. You may contact him by email at mike.booker@bain.com
Guy Brusselmans is a partner in Bain’s Brussels office. You may contact him by email at guy.brusselmans@bain.com
Marcy Kou is CEO at Kantar Worldpanel Asia. You may contact her by email at marcy.kou@kantarworldpanel.com
Jason Yu is General Manager at Kantar Worldpanel China. You may contact him by email at jason.yu@ctrchina.cn
Please direct questions and comments about this report via email to the authors.
Acknowledgments
This report is a joint effort between Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel. The authors extend gratitude to all
who contributed to this report, in particular Chen Chen, Yifan Yang and Iris Zhou from Bain & Company and
Vincent Shao and Lydia Wang from Kantar Worldpanel.
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It’s what we do with our data that sets us apart. We apply hindsight, insight, foresight and advice to make a real
difference to the way you see your world and inspire the actions you take for a more successful business.
We have more than 40 years’ experience in helping companies shape their strategies and manage their tactical
decisions; we understand shopper and retailer dynamics; we explore opportunities for growth in terms of products,
categories, regions and within trade environments. Together with our partner relationships, we are present in more
than 50 countries—in most of which we are market leaders—which means we can deliver inspiring insights on a local,
regional and global scale. Kantar Worldpanel was formerly known as TNS Worldpanel.