Priority Neighbourhoods and the
Vulnerable Localities Index in Wigan
Ian Bullen
Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator
About the VLI
• Developed by Centrex and JDI (UCL)
• Designed to be simple yet robust
• Uses 6 “easy to obtain” data sets to point a
“suggestive finger”
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Burglary in a dwelling
Criminal Damage in a dwelling
Income Deprivation
Employment Deprivation
Educational Attainment
Young People (Aged 15-24)
Adding Data to the Picture – The Alt. VLI
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Violence in a domestic setting (GMP Data)
Probation client count (GMAC Datahub)
Health Deprivation score (IMD 2004)
Lone Parents with Dependent Children (Census 2001)
GMFS Incidents (GMAC Datahub)
Drug Users Count (SMS Postcodes)
Comparing the Indices
700.000000000000
600.000000000000
Correlations
ALT VLI
500.000000000000
October
ALT VLI 04 VLI
ALT VLI
Pearson Correlati
1
.764**
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
N
1011
1011
October 04 V Pearson Correlati
.764**
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
N
1011
1011
400.000000000000
300.000000000000
200.000000000000
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-taile
100.000000000000
0.000000000000
0
100
200
October 04 VLI
300
Adding Data to the Picture – The Alt. VLI
The Combined VLI & Alt.VLI
Super Output Areas
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Happy with methodology but…
What’s between the gaps?
Broader look at Wigan to aid understanding
OAs too small? NRF based on SOAs.
SOAs – c.500 households (1500 people)
VLI > 150, Alt VLI > 200
Identified 32 SOAs
Top 32 Most Vulnerable SOAs
Any areas with higher
crime rate than Top 32
average?
Crime rate dropping year on year
from 2003 to 2006
but Top 32 retained a larger
proportion of all crime, i.e. the gap widened.
Top 32 Most Vulnerable SOAs plus SOAs with BCS10
Crime Rate/1000 higher than Top 32 Average
Top 32 Most Vulnerable SOAs plus SOAs with BCS10
Crime Rate/1000 higher than or close to Top 32 Average
Street
Lighting
Targeted
drugs outreach
Targeted offenders work
Cleaner/Greener indicators
Literacy Capacity
Alleygating
Progress to Work
Family Support
Capable Guardianship
Income
GeneralHousehold
Housing Security
Visible
Health
Household Decency
Patrols
Half of Wigan’s
BCS10 Crimes occur
amongst just a quarter
of the population
Using the VLI to Aid Understanding of
Local Issues
VLI in Leigh
Leigh Town Centre
Problem Profile
Priority Neighbourhood
on the outskirts
Crime
Peak Day
Hotspot
for= offences
between
Wednesday
Script
Day
Priority
-WednesdayNeighbourhood
High acquisitive
and crime levels
Town Centre
Moving with the times…
NRF Influence
• Based on IMD 2004
• Focus on worst 3% and 10% nationally
• 9 SOAs in worst 3% (4.5% of Wigan)
• 32 SOAs in worst 10% (16% of Wigan)
• Strong correlation with VLI/Alt VLI
• Mostly the same areas
• Strong understanding of these areas as a result of
VLI work
• Assisted NRF Team with data sets
Most Deprived 3% SOAs
(plus other Top 10 VLI/AVLI not included)
Disproportionality
Wigan
Borough
Worst 10% SOAs
Worst 3% SOAs
Rate per 1000
Rate per 1000
population
Proportion
above Borough
rate
Rate per 1000
population
Proportion
above Borough
rate
BCS10 Crime
Rate 2004-05
62.41
98.95
58.55%
94.09
50.77%
BCS10 Crime
Rate 2005-06
59.82
98.35
64.40%
92.84
55.20%
Probation
Clients
Jan04-Dec05
6.53
16.49
152.53%
21.48
229.02%
PPOs (on list
as at April
2006)
0.14
0.39
182.30%
0.59
322.16%
YOT Clients
2005-06
4.44
11.23
152.78%
15.82
256.14%
YISP Clients
2005-06
0.89
2.75
210.85%
3.68
315.05%
Disproportionality
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Crime & Disorder disproportionality
Need to bend mainstream resources to tackle this
Political issue
Some strong arguments
We are bending “problems” into these areas
E.g. Asylum Seekers, Probation clients
Resources must follow
Neighbourhood Policing
• Recent Briefing Paper on Neighbourhood Policing & the
NIM
• Piloting this within Priority Neighbourhoods
• Profiling the 9 SOAs in the worst 3% nationally
• Specific focus on 1 area to develop template for
Neighbourhoods within the Borough
• Envisage co-located multi-agency teams within Priority
Neighbourhoods
• Virtual teams in less vulnerable locations
Priority Neighbourhoods and the
Vulnerable Localities Index in Wigan
Ian Bullen
Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator