The police role in community cohesion:
Using geographic indicators to identify vulnerable
localities
Spencer Chainey
Director of Geographic Information Science,
The Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, University College London
The riots of 2001
• Bradford, Burnley,
Wrexham, Oldham
Government Reviews
– Home Office
– Local Government Association
Review of the riots
Common themes
• Fragmented communities
• Deprived areas
• Disenfranchisement of young people
• Preceded with months of tension and minor
incidents
• High unemployment
• Lack of a strong cultural identity
• Far right groups active
• Locals
Review of the riots
• “Community cohesion must be a
central aim of government,
reflected in all policy making
including regeneration”
• “Further violence is likely if
government, police and community
leaders fail to break this
polarisation”
• “The riots were predictable”
What is community cohesion?
(UK Home Office definition)
A cohesive community is one where,
• common vision and a sense of belonging for all
communities
• the diversity of people's different backgrounds and
circumstances is appreciated and positively valued
• those from different backgrounds have similar life
opportunities; and
• strong and positive relationships are being developed
between people from different backgrounds in the
workplace, in schools and within neighbourhoods
Police role?
The police role in community cohesion
• CENTREX
National Centre for Policing Excellence
“to identify and address issues of disproportionate
criminality, victimisation and tension”
- Appreciate factors that influence the undercurrent
of disproportionality
- Identify communities in breakdown (‘vulnerable
localities’)
But how do we identify it?
• The starting point
– ‘tension indicators’
• Expecting them to be easily found so that a precise prediction
can be made of when and where disorder will occur
– In practice
• Do not readily exist
• Systems that the police have in place fail to routinely collect
and analyse the assessment of these risks.
Identifying communities in breakdown
•
Crime
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
Burglary
Street crime
Violent crime
Vehicle crime
Criminal damage
Race and hate crimes
Drugs
Offenders
Deprivation
Poverty
Unemployment
Disorder and anti-social behaviour
–
–
–
–
–
Vandalism
Noise
Civil disputes and fights
Graffiti
Abandoned vehicles
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Poor housing
Overcrowded housing
Fires/arsons
Malicious calls
Disenfranchised young people
Political extremists
Poor education
Poor health
Poor cultural identity
Lack of economic prospects
Active segregation through
schooling
Misunderstanding between religions
New immigrants
…
Identifying vulnerable communities
• Needs to be consistently applicable to all
police forces in England and Wales
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Identify communities and neighbourhoods
Methodology that is consistent
Access to and use of data
Simple to apply, practical, yet robust
Little or no training of analyst
National Intelligence Model
Assume that not all have a GIS
Output needs to be concise
Needs to be accurate…
The police role in community cohesion
Analyse and respond to vulnerable communities
?
1
2
3
Identify and measure
Scanning
Explore/
Understand
Recommend
Align/Define
Respond
Concentration factors/problem profile
A
• Other
crime
nalysis
• Intelligence
• Offenders
• Environmental disorder
• Repeat victimisation
• Criminal networks
Respond
Identifying vulnerable communities
• Key statistics
– Do I have ‘vulnerable
localities’ in my Basic
Command Unit, relative
to the national picture?
• Locality statistics
– Is my problem one that is
rising?
– Where are the vulnerable
localities?
– What are the response
opportunities?
Identifying vulnerable communities
Key statistics
• Deprivation
– Extent of deprivation in your police area
– Concentration of deprivation in your area (HO LGA CC7 indicator)
• Crime
– Burglary dwelling – a measure of the levels and trends of
burglary dwelling in your local area
• Available on the internet
– Neighbourhood Statistics: www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
– Home Office: www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/crimeew0304.html
Example: Key Statistics
Name of BCU: Sandwell (West Midlands Police) – LA code CS
Key statistics – How deprived is our BCU and what are some of the
recent general crime trends?
Deprivation extent score – the percentage of the population that live in the top
10% of deprived wards in England. Lowest score is 0, highest score is 100
Deprivation extent rank
(Out of 158)
Deprivation concentration score (CCO7) – A high score indicates that
the BCU has hotspots of deprivation. Lowest score is 1297, highest score is 8411.
Deprivation concentration rank
(Out of 354)
Burglary dwelling rate (offences per 1,000 households)
(National rate 2002/03: 20 per 1,000 households)
Burglary dwelling change 01/02 - 02/03 (%)
(National burglary dwelling change 01/02 - 02/03 is -2%)
45.85
19
8170.9
52
29.6
-8.1
Identifying vulnerable communities
Locality statistics – uses local data that is available for all areas
• Crime statistics (Police crime recording system)
– Burglary dwelling
– Criminal damage to a dwelling
– Racial incidents
• Deprivation statistics (Neighbourhood Statistics)
– Income deprivation
– Employment deprivation
• Education statistics (Neighbourhood Statistics)
– Population that has less than 5 or more GCSEs grades A*-C or
equivalent
• Demographic statistics (Neighbourhood Statistics)
– Population of young people
Identifying vulnerable communities
Locality statistics outputs
• Trends (graphs)
– Change in crime
• Vulnerable localities (map)
– Vulnerable localities index that is derived from
combining locality statistics
• Opportunities (checklist)
– Partnership activity
Vulnerable localities index
•
•
•
Identify areas
Census Output Areas, as the aggregate unit for these statistics
Locality statistics - normalised and aggregated to form a single
vulnerable index score for each locality
– E.g. it is not possible to aggregate the count of burglaries for an area with a
statistic for the population of 15-24 year olds
•
•
•
Crime data – rates
Other statistics – percentage
The average for each statistic is then calculated and acts as the
benchmark value around which all other values for this statistic
set are converted
Vulnerable localities index
Example1.
• A Census Output Area (OA) recorded 6 burglary dwellings.
– Households = 189
– The burglary dwelling rate = 31.7 per 1000 households per annum
•
•
•
•
•
The average burglary rate for the BCU = 20.3
The average (20.3) acts as the benchmark.
Any OA that also has a burglary dwelling rate of 20.3 is given
the index value of 100
All other OAs that have different rates have an index that is
worked out using the formula: [Rate in OA/BCU average
rate]*100
The OA’s Burglary Dwelling Index = 156
(i.e. [31.7/20.3]*100)
Vulnerable localities index
•
Example 2.
Output Area has 96 people whose highest qualification is less
than 5 or more GCSEs grades A*-C or equivalent
– Population = 257
– Percentage of the population whose highest qualification is less than 5 or
more GCSEs grades A*-C or equivalent = 37.4%
•
•
•
•
The average for BCU = 39.7%
Any OA that also has a percentage value of 39.7 is given the
index value of 100
All other OAs that have different values have an index that is
worked out using the formula: (Percentage in OA/BCU average
rate)*100
The OA’s Education Index = 94
i.e. [37.4/39.7]*100
Vulnerable localities index
Locality statistics
Burglary dwelling
Employment
deprivation
Criminal damage
Poor educational
attainment
Income deprivation
High
concentrations of
young people
Vulnerable localities index
Vulnerable Localities Form
Locality statistics – Where are our vulnerable localities, what are some of our
current crime trends and what opportunities may there be in our BCU that could aid our
response?
Name of BCU: Sandwell (West Midlands
Police) – LA code CS
Burglary dwelling offences
Count
and what are some of the recent general
crime trends?
35
250
30
200
25
Count
Key statistics – How deprived is our BCU
Racial incidents
300
150
100
Deprivation extent score – the percentage of the
45.85
population that live in the top 10% of deprived wards in
England. Lowest score is 0, highest score is 100
Deprivation extent rank
(Out of 158)
Deprivation concentration score
(CCO7) – A high score indicates that the BCU has
8170.9
52
(Out of 354)
Burglary dwelling rate (offences per
1,000 households)
29.6
(National rate 2002/03: 20 per 1,000 households)
Burglary dwelling change 01/02 - 02/03 (%)
(National burglary dwelling change 01/02 - 02/03 is
-2%)
5
0
0
Jan- Feb- Mar03
03
03
Apr- May03
03
Jun03
Jul03
Aug- Sep- Oct03
03
03
Nov03
Dec- Jan02
03
Feb03
Mar- Apr- May- Jun03
03
03
03
Jul03
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov03
03
03
03
Local initiatives
checklist.
Regeneration
hotspots of deprivation. Lowest score is 1297, highest
score is 8411.
Deprivation concentration rank
15
10
50
Dec02
19
20
-8.1
† New Deal for Communities
† Single Regeneration Budget
† Other regeneration initiatives
Crime reduction initiatives
† Burglary reduction initiatives
† Street crime initiatives
† Drug reform programmes
† Other crime reduction
initiatives
Education programmes
† Education Action Zones
† ConneXions
Housing
† Capital Receipts Initiative
Health
Health Action Zones
† Other initiatives
The police role in community cohesion
Analysing and responding to vulnerable communities
?
1
2
3
Identify and measure
Understand
Recommend
Define
Concentration factors
• Other crime
• Tension indicators (intelligence)
• Offenders
• Criminal lifestyles in young people
• Environmental disorder
• Repeat victimisation
• Criminal networks
Respond
Pilot work
• Sanity checking
– 3 pilot sites
• Critical review
• Piloting the methodology, its applicability and
accuracy
– 8 pilot sites: training and site visits, plus support
– Telling people about it, getting them thinking about it,
providing feedback (e.g. GMP)
• Integrating it with Neighbourhood Policing
• Methodology being evaluated by Oxford
University
Concluding remarks
• Putting community cohesion into a policing context
• ‘Community cohesion’ has become a new buzz
phrase in policing and community safety
• Attempting to be consistent, practical and robust in
the approach for identifying vulnerable communities
• Linking this to other agendas (Neighbourhood
Renewal)
• Introducing the police to data they haven’t typically
used before
• Demonstrating that crime mapping isn’t just about
producing pretty hotspot maps
• Effective tool for supporting strategic police
responses
Some useful references
• CENTREX National Centre for Policing
Excellence
www.centrex.police.uk/ncpe/index.html
• Home Office Community Cohesion Unit
www.communitycohesion.gov.uk
• Progress on Vulnerable Localities Research –
The Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science,
UCL
www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk