Real – Time CTIPe Run at SWPC
Mihail Codrescu and Tim Fuller-Rowell
Research vs operations
CTIPe real time run
Inputs and uncertainties
Validation
Future plans
EVE Space Weather and Operations Workshop, October 7, 2010
Real – Time CTIPe Run
There is a big difference between a research model and its operational
version
- solution for all possible conditions
- no human intervention allowed for normal operation
- all necessary decisions are premade
- handle computer reboots
- dynamic handling of no input data conditions
Wrong results may be OK if
- one knows when and where
- one knows how wrong
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/index.html
Real-Time CTIPe Run
- Housekeeping scripts
- create year and monthly directories
- create daily netCDF files
- create the next day startup file
- keep track of finished day runs and zip older files
- Run model one day at a time in 10 min increments
- write to netCDF
- write to logfile
- Pearl script to prepare 10 minutes of input
- F10.7 for UV&EUV heating and ionization
- SW for convection E-fields and particles
- 24 h average Kp for NO cooling
- Graphics scripts
- update plots
- move plots to web page
100 kV
Weimer pattern
January 9-10, 1997
T. Matsuo Private Communication, 2004
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/
Particles and Fields
E-field patterns are statistical and consequently smooth
Conductivity calculations are based on statistical precipitation patterns
that are extrapolated from one orbit insitu measurements
=> Joule heating calculations based on statistical patterns have large
uncertainties:
50% globally
factor of ten locally
Important for global circulation, neutral composition, and electrodynamical
processes
NRLEUV Spectra
1011
Photon Flux (Photons/cm
sec)
SolMax
Flare
SolMin
2
1010
109
108
107
106
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 100011001200
Wavelength(A)
From Rodney Viereck, SEC
Energy Deposition
Viereck, Private communication, 2004
Solar EUV Heating
We use a proxy (F10.7) for the solar flux.
F10.7 correlates well with the solar flux over long time scales but not
so well over short time scales.
The use of a proxy combined with uncertainties in heating
efficiencies combine to produce uncertainties of at least 50% in the
thermosphere heating.
Chemical heat transport complicates the picture even more.
Important for global dynamics and electrodynamics
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/NmF2.html
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/TEC_Alaska.html
CTIPe Validation
CTIPe
US-TEC
CTIPe Ionosonde data comparison
NASA Space Station Support
CCMC operational run of CTIPe
- Complement station sensors
- Plasma hazard management
- Charging prediction
- Discharging
- Drag
Classical ionospheric storm
Geospace Mission Definition Team Report
TEC above the CHAMP satellite altitude of 400 km on October 30, 2003
1TECU = 16 cm
Mannucci, private communication, 2005
Highly Enhanced Total Electron Content and GPS
Phase Fluctuations During October 30, 2003 Storm
Intense GPS Phase Fluctuations (Delta TEC/MIN ) Occur in the Auroral
Region and along the Storm Enhanced Total Electron Content (TEC)
Gradient.
Basu et al., submitted to GRL 2005
ACTUAL SATCOM MESSAGES
SATCOM MESSAGE ERRORS
15
SATCOM Message
064. THE QUICK BROWN FOX JUMPS OVER THE LAZY DOGS BACK 01234567<9"TI
12
Ascension Island
6 April 1997
Relative Signal Strength (dB)
9
?65.( VHE UUicK vROWN$GOX JUMPS OVER†THE!McZY(f~d¸z.9g?_f_}_ j›sSL 33
s
%E QUICK$BROWN(FOX JUM‘S OVER THE0L—ZY ?OGS ‚—CK 0123456789
TIÌU¤M
?67. (THE QUKcK BROWN GOY"JUMPS
_V˜Z ™‰.O ÁOx'??.9 :c™l???0SsQJ.ª:.$~
$U
¶S?IcK0 SˆN …? MUM“Û!_VGS* THE LAZY DOGS BACK 01=3456789 TIMES
069. THE QUICK BROWN FOX JUMPS OVER THE LAZY DOGS BACK 0123456789 TIM
6
3
Average Signal Level
0
-3
-7
Receiver Fade Margin
-9
-12
00:21:00
00:22:00
00:23:00
Universal Time (hh:mm:ss)
S. Basu, private communication
Geomagnetic Storm of 31 March 2001
Tropospheric wet delay =7.5 cm
Seth Gutman, FSL