UCL INSTITUTE FOR RISK AND DISASTER REDUCTION
WHY CANCUN MARKS A KEY TURNING POINT
Far from being an obscure footnote in history, as some predicted, the Cancun Summit is likely to be
looked back upon in years to come as a seminal moment.
The simple reason: because there is now a growing acceptance that preserving our current environment
is probably unobtainable. Instead, as was evident in Mexico this month, there is increasing
consideration of the significantly more volatile (both warmer and more flooded) world in 2100 that is
predicted by all the major centres of climate science.
The exceptional seriousness of the warming problem was underlined most recently by an International
Energy Agency (IEA) report last month on the trend of increasing global emissions of green house
gases. Under the Copenhagen Accord’s environmental goals and pledges (as at the end of November),
emissions would rise 21% above 2008 levels by 2035 alone.
The IEA indicates that the increase in global land temperature in these circumstances will be at least
3.5C. The world is thus on the path of the ‘business as usual’ scenario envisaged recently as an unlikely
worst case. So, climate scientists have now got to consider unprecedented changes.
What is absolutely clear is that temperature rises of a 3-4C magnitude will, most likely, pose an
irreversible tipping point for continental sized areas of changing land cover, and for ice on sea and land.
As a result, millions (if not tens of millions) of people are likely to be displaced by the effects of
desertification and rising sea levels, and mountain snow melt.
In this fast moving and disturbing picture, international action must now focus with equal urgency on how
societies can adapt to (as well as prevent) these changes. And, with this in mind, politicians and the
public would do well to follow the Netherlands Delta commission; the report of the UK Adaptation SubCommittee of the Committee on Climate Change; and China’s scientific agencies and seriously begin to
consider planning for the monumental changes that will be apparent in the decades to come.
Put simply, as extreme weather becomes more frequent, countries will need to develop integrated
practical policies that deal both with the full range of climate change adaptation and natural disasters.
This year’s weather-related disasters, ranging from the brush fires in Russia to the floods in Pakistan, will
only grow in frequency and we must be better prepared.
In this difficult context, how is the world responding?
Firstly, although the Kyoto accord will not be renewed in 2012, there is now growing international support
for the (admittedly ‘weaker’) agreement hammered out at Copenhagen last December. Importantly, this
coalition is being forged and driven by the United States, despite the continuing scepticism of many
legislators in Congress about climate change science.
Even before Cancun started, 116 countries had reportedly associated themselves with Copenhagen.
Moreover, at least another 20-30 others intend to also do so. This means that almost 75% of the 193
countries that are parties to the UN climate change convention (accounting for over 80% of current
global greenhouse emissions) are now supporters.
While the Copenhagen process has its weaknesses, it is much better than no accord at all. And, we
must be realistic: given the massively wide range of political, economic and technical approaches to
climate change policy across the world, it may now be impossible to frame a stronger international
agreement that would satisfy all governments, businesses and civil society groups.
The second key trend is the development across the world of a wide diversity of approaches to tackling
climate change at the local, regional and national levels. As was reinforced to me this month in a Mexico
City symposium, which was organised by Global Legislators for a Balanced Environment (Globe), the
success of at least some of these initiatives is encouraging exploration of a more ‘bottom up’ framework
to tackling climate change that might eventually be bolted onto Copenhagen.
For instance, in China, where a feasibility study is being concluded right now into a new comprehensive
climate change law, financial rewards for reducing energy use provided by regional government are
making substantial improvements in efficiency. These arrangements are evolving into local carbon
markets, albeit small-scale and voluntary at this stage.
EU countries have been emphasising different kinds of low carbon energy, such as wind, carbon
sequestration and nuclear power. The continent has also promoted its policy of carbon trading to
motivate industrial efficiency. The EU and China are also planning to introduce new systems of
monitoring green house gas emissions, using remote sensing and ground based instrumentation, in
order to have a reliable regulatory/incentivisation scheme.
Other countries are focusing on preventing the rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases by expanding
forestry. For instance, Brazil and Mexico are introducing national legislation for minimising the loss of
tropical rain forest and preserving these irreplaceable natural habitats, while ensuring the vitality of
communities who live in them. Modern technologies including satellite surveillance are ensuring that
loss of rain forest can be slowed.
However, despite these initiatives, we are now at a point at which preserving our current environment is
probably unobtainable. What is thus urgently needed is agreement on a range of practical actions to
mitigate climate change and deal with its effects on health, business, agriculture and natural disasters.
The rising costs of dealing with these effects, such as coastal defences, reducing desertification and
urban overheating, mean that preventative actions have to begin right away. It would be folly of the
highest order to delay this process until economies grow further, as some influential economists continue
to argue.
Lord Hunt is a Visiting Professor at Delft University, Vice-President of Globe, and former
Director-General of the UK Met Office.