China and Climate Change
SEAN WALSH
FEBRUARY 24, 2010
Overview
 Historical Overview of Environmentalism in China
 Local Efforts to Combat Climate Change
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Unilateralism
Green Industry
 International Negotiations
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China’s role
Stakes
The Copenhagen Accord and Current Proposals
 Future Outlook
History of Environmentalism in China
 Early dynasties believed it was the rulers job to
protect against natural disasters
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large element of environmental stewardship
 Environmental issues did not become a problem
until roughly the 19th century
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market started to control business more than the state
400 million population
Energy and agricultural needs began the environmental decline
Cumulated in Mao’s dictum to conquer nature in the 1950s and
several ecologically disastrous development projects
More Recent History
 First national conference on environmental
protection held in 1973, followed by a national
environmental protection agency in 1974
 Serious official concern did not begin until 1996,
when the environment first figured prominently
into one of China’s 5 year development plans (the
9th)
China’s Unilateralism
 45% emissions intensity drop relative to 2005 by 2020,
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20% renewable energy goal by 2020
Increase forest coverage by 20% by 2010 from 2005
levels & bioengineer low emission, high yield rice
Active campaign to raise energy efficiency (behavior
and products) and R&D into new energy sources
Over 50 bln Yuan spent in 2008 alone to build up
water reservoirs and water efficiency
Coastal and wildlife preservation plans as well
Green Industry – Solar and Wind
• Use the ‘greening’ process to further development?
• China aims to become a global leader in solar
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Currently accounts for over 40% of global supply of solar cells and film
Industry sales measured in at 150 billion Yuan in 2008
Relatively sparse use of solar domestically as of yet
Technology developing at rate to reduce cost to match conventional
power by roughly 2013
• Domestic use of wind goal of 135 GW by 2020
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Currently 13 GW installed within ~800 GW total power base
Annual industry growth rate over 100%, pre crisis, and roughly 43%
currently; local demand increasing 10% annually
Heavy subsidies for both power itself and R&D
China in the International Negotiating Process
 China entered into the international climate
change negotiating process in the Rio Earth
Summit
 China in key international environmental
discussions
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Montreal Protocol ratified in 1991
Rio Earth Summit in 1992, where the UNFCCC was created
Observer to Kyoto Protocol in 1997
Copenhagen Accords
Stakes for China in the Negotiations – trade &
development
 Trade and climate change cannot be dealt with
independently of each other
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Border measures, carbon embedment, etc.
 Trade is a very large part of China’s growth
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Pre crisis, 30% of Chinese GDP was exports
 Development-wise, China must minimize the
emissions it is responsible for
 China must still act to reduce emissions
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Sustainability of growth and health
Stakes for China in the Negotiations – energy &
development
 Local development of solar and wind power
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Green development at home and new export potential
May bring power to more rural areas of China, once developed
 Coal
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Principle source of energy for China for foreseeable future
Thus, CCS technology critical for China
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IP regime globally is important in this way especially
COP15 in Copenhagen
Brief Overview of the Copenhagen Accord
 Agreement between the US and the BASICs,
expanded to other countries
 First cross developed-developing country
agreement on climate change
 Emissions reduction based on unilateralism
 Preserves Kyoto commitments and furthers them
 Not endorsed or adopted by the UNFCCC officially
 No mention of trade issues
Key Copenhagen Accord Proposals for China
 Unilateralism as multilateralism
 The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
 Technology Mechanism
Future Outlook for Negotiations
• Venue of the negotiations?
• Technology Mechanism and CCS
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Locally if not globally?
• Funding
• Global dominance of Chinese solar?
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Internal Chinese development via solar and wind
• Continued unilateralism in China
Thank You
Sean Walsh
swalsh@cigionline.org