Integrating Climate Science into
Management-Oriented Adaptation
Scenarios: Towards a Hybrid Approach
John Gross & Leigh Welling
National Park Service, Ft Collins, CO
Brad Udall
CU-NOAA Western Water Assessment, Boulder, CO
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Many contributors to NPS scenario planning and to
this presentation:
Don Weeks
Matt Rose
Melanie Wood
Cat Hawkins-Hoffman
Jonathan Starr - GBN
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National Park Service Mission:
“… preserve unimpaired the natural and
cultural resources and intrinsic values of the
National Park System for the enjoyment,
education, and inspiration of this and future
generations…”
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NPS Planning Framework
GMP
Foundation
Program
Mgmt
Plans
Strategic
Plan
Implementation
Plans
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
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“Command and Control” – define desired conditions and head for them!
One-Dimensional Planning
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
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(Denver Post)
(Craig Allen)
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-10%
+10%
Forecast Planning
Planning for One Future
Scenario Planning
Planning for Multiple Futures
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Scenarios are stories about how the future might unfold
for our organizations, our communities and our world.
Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are
provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant
external forces might interact and evolve, providing our
organizations with different challenges and
opportunities.
Model-based,
forecasts
Spectrum of Approaches
Participatory
exercises
A
B
D
C
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NPS Approach to Participatory Scenario Planning
Focuses on:
Users – meeting information needs and concerns of NPS resource managers,
law enforcement, search and rescue, rangers, planners, etc.
Science – integration of model outputs, literature, park based monitoring, etc.
Management Environment – includes sociopolitical elements (budgets, support)
Participation and Collaboration – fosters scenario developer and user
interaction throughout the creation process; promotes end-user input and
ownership
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Broad Concern
Lack of Senior
Commitment
Degree of
Riots and Revolutions
Big Problems, Big Solutions
Nature of Leadership
Societal Concern
Is Anyone Out There?
De
Strong
coordination;
Long-term
perspective
Wheel Spinning
General Indifference
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Model-based,
forecasts
Spectrum of Approaches
• Focus on science ‘delivery’ to ‘users’
• Emphasize technical expertise
• Reinforces certainty
• Tend to conceal risks and inherent
limitations (model bias, inaccurate
Participatory
exercises
• Actively engage managers and
stakeholders
• Emphasize expert opinion
• Encourage divergent thinking
and ‘wild cards’
• Focus on uncertainties
• Attempt to clarify risks
extremes, mountains, etc.)
• Scalable, may deliver spatially
explicit results
• May erroneously be used as
predictions
• Scalable, not spatially explicit;
often aimed at policy
• Explicitly designed as ‘stories’
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The Best of Both: Bridging Model-based and
Participatory Methods
•
Emphasize current science, including historical and
projected trends, conceptual systems models and defensible
relationships
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The Best of Both: Bridging Model-based and
Participatory Methods
•
Emphasize current science, including historical and
projected trends, conceptual systems models and defensible
relationships
•
Establish “ownership” of knowledge and information to
empower decision-making
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The Best of Both: Bridging Model-based and
Participatory Methods
•
Emphasize current science, including historical and
projected trends, conceptual systems models and defensible
relationships
•
Establish “ownership” of knowledge and information to
empower decision-making
•
Flexible design and application of scenarios to address
specific decisions
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(Another) Hybrid Approach:

More emphasis on describing case study areas using
system models and relationships

Focus on a “least change” scenario as the initial
platform for further scenario creation

Exploration of the value of scenarios describing state
changes / threshold effects / system vulnerabilities

Introduction of an interactive approach to creating
multi-dimensional scenarios (flash cards)
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Advanced Training Workshop in Ft Collins, June 2012
•
•
•
•
Two case studies (Rocky Mountain Divide, NYC Ecosystems)
Two method = 4 groups of about 8 participants
NPS, Bureau of Reclamation, RISA, CSC, academics
Facilitated by Global Business Network
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Rocky Mountain Divide Case Study – Inputs to Workshop
• Orientation & context of the Rocky Mountain Divide area
• Conceptual models
• Observed and anticipated changes
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100 miles
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Regional atmospheric
resources & conditions
Disturbance
regime
Ecosystem
Processes
Soil / water
resources &
conditions
Functional
groups
(Modified Jenny-Chapin model)
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Water
transfers
from the west
to east slope
(Atlas of the New West – Riebsame et al. 1997)
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RMNP
RMNP
2010
Housing Density
2050
Projected increase from 43,000 to 96,000 in 30 km buffer
Images from NPScape. Data: D. Theobald
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Engelmann spruce - 2060
Subalpine fir - 2060
Current
Current
Crookson and Rehfeldt
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Summary of observed & projected climate-related impacts (literature synthesis)
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Summary of observed & projected climate-related impacts (literature synthesis)
Impact Categories:
• Air Quality
• Biota
• Ecosystems
• Fire
• Human Health
• Infrastructure
• Pests
• Visitors
• Water
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Climate Drivers Table – Projected changes, confidence, sources
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After discussing the context and drivers, both groups
considered the ‘least change’ scenario and we used two
processes to generate additional scenarios:
• Threshold/State Change: Brainstorming of drivers and
system thresholds (fire, water, blowdowns, water supply
and demand, land use, etc.)
• Flash-cards: Select from set of prepared cards with
climate and non-climate drivers.
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Thresholds / State Change Approach to Creating Scenarios
Least Change Scenario
Impacts
Increased risk and conflict
Water stress is the new
normal
Increased tree mortality
Restrictions due to fire
Invasive species
Greater park visitation
Wildlife-human conflict
increased
Problems
Meeting water demands
Fire intensity and
frequency
Visitor expectations and
safety
Mis-steps due to
innovation
Opportunities
Greater visitation
Investment in public
transport
Exploit disturbances for
infrastructure renewal
Venue for alliances and
education
Actions
Water conservation / rationing
/ use of storage technology
Fire protection (prescribed
burns, increase resistance in
structures)
Regional energy and transport
plans
Pre-develop disturbance plans
Focus on targets that matter
most (food, water, energy, fire)
Better understanding of
system stressors
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Colorado Undiscovered Country was created via the card
flipping approach to scenario creation
Description
Differs from the Least Change:
• increased likelihood of extreme temperatures
• stream-flow peaks 45 days earlier
• snowpack decreases 30%
• freq of extreme precipitation doubles
• 25% increase in drought frequency
Extreme growth in CO population; park visitation decreases; partnerships
increase
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Colorado Undiscovered Country
Impacts
Regular catastrophic fires
Fundamental ecosystem
changes
Disruption to recreation,
decreased access
WUI shifts to high-income
self-insured
Focus on fire diverts
resources from other areas
Problems
Actions
Extreme water
demands
Increased buffer for WUI
fire management
Extensive, frequent,
intense fires
Assisted migration
Conflict with
Endangered
Species Act
Opportunities
Species relocation
Identify vulnerabilities
and potential refugia
Teach by example
through infrastructure
resilience
Change infrastructure
requirements
Set standards for the
future
Focus to save
mature / old growth
forests
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How Did the Hybrid Approach Work?
Least-change Scenario:
• Emphasized imminence of change and need for response
• More palatable to some management staff
• Some felt that a more likely and more consequential scenario should
be emphasized
Thresholds and Card-flipping Methods
• Both methods led to scenarios with similar elements
• No clear preference after workshop (but strong preferences
prior …)
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What We Learned
•
Hybrid approach effectively leveraged strengths of
typically distinct approaches
•
Challenge to balance physical & social aspects
•
Use tailored approach to scenarios; no one-sizefits-all
•
Least-change case had unanticipated benefits
•
•
Illustrating large changes are imminent
•
Provided a ‘non-crisis’ pathway to action
Follow-up needed to more fully develop mgmt
alternatives and institutionalize scenario methods
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Questions?
More information – NPS Scenario Planning
http://www.nps.gov/climatechange/adaptationplanning.cfm
Hybrid Scenario Planning Workshop web page:
http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor/meetings/FtCollins_12
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