Chapter One
INTRODUCTION
A transformation has occurred along China’s Russian and Central
Asian border (see Figure 1). From Vladivostok to Dushanbe, the focus of Chinese policy has shifted from maintaining military readiness
and deterrence to expanding trade and cooperation. Beijing and
Moscow have dramatically reduced political and military tension between their two countries. Despite initial misgivings, China also enjoys friendly relations with the newly independent states of Central
Asia. Improved relations between China and countries of the former
Soviet Union (FSU) on its border extend beyond simply addressing
long-standing border disputes. Trade links have expanded steadily
over the past decade; Russia and countries of Central Asia are poised
to become major suppliers of energy resources for China’s growing
economy. Also, Russia has provided China with a wide array of advanced weapons systems through a series of arms sales, and Moscow
and Beijing have recently trumpeted a new “strategic partnership”
aimed at hastening the emergence of a truly multipolar world system.
This report examines the foundation of China’s policies toward Russia and the five republics of Central Asia, identifies what combination of issues and environmental conditions is likely to shape their
evolution, and assesses the policies’ potential impact on regional or
global U.S. interests.
Chapter Two addresses the question of why China has improved its
relations with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It describes the evolution of SinoRussian and Sino-Central Asian relations since the fall of the Soviet
1
2
Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics
RANDMR-1045-1
Sea of
Okhotsk
RUSSIA
Nov os ibirsk
Irk uts k
★ Astana
KAZAKHSTAN
Khabarovsk
MONGOLIA
Almaty
UZBEKISTAN
IRAN
Harbin
Vladivostok
Nakhodka
Urumqi
★ Bis hk ek
KYRGYZSTAN
Tashkent★
TURKMENISTAN
★Ulaan Baatar
★
Dus hanbe
★ TAJ IKISTAN
NORTH Japan
KOREA
Seoul
★
SOUTH
CHINA
AFGHANISTAN
★
KOREA
Lianyungang
Islamabad
PAKISTAN
Sea of
Beijing
NEPAL
New Delhi
INDIA
Pacific Ocean
Bay of
Bengal
SRI LANKA
1000 km
1000 miles
★ Taipei
TAIWAN
BANGLADESH
BURMA
Arabian
Sea
JAPAN
East
China
Sea
Shanghai
★
★
Tokyo
VIETNAM
LAOS
★ Hanoi
THAILAND
Bangkok
★ CAMBODIA
HONG KONG
South
China
Sea
Manila★
PHILIPPINES
BRUNEI
MALAYSIA
★ Kuala Lumpur
★
SINGAPORE
Indian Ocean
PAPUA
NEW GUINEA
Jakarta
★
INDONESIA
Port Mores by ★
Figure 1—Asia
Union and the goals of Chinese policies toward these countries. The
purpose is to highlight the wide range of issues and interests that
drive Chinese policy toward these countries.
Chapters Three and Four examine the prospects for Sino-Russian
and Sino-Central Asian relations, respectively. A number of factors,
many of which are beyond Beijing’s control, will affect how China’s
relationships with these countries will evolve. These chapters identify some of the primary issues that will determine whether SinoRussian strategic relations will grow closer and the extent to which
China’s influence in Central Asia is likely to expand.
Lastly, Chapter Five discusses how the development of Sino-Russian
and Sino-Central Asian relations might affect U.S. interests. To what
extent does the Sino-Russian strategic partnership threaten U.S. in-
Introduction
3
terests? Does China’s expanding role in Central Asia work against
American policy goals in the region? This chapter examines the nature and limits of the threat these developments pose to U.S. interests.