Adapting to Climate Change:
The role of parks and
protected areas
Lisa J. Graumlich
Professor and Director
School of Natural Resources
The University of Arizona
How do we protect
protected areas and
protected species in the
face of climate change?
Roadmap
• Context: climate change in the West
• What do we mean by adaptation?
• Yellowstone
• Paths forward
Temperatures are rising
in the West
Linear trends in annual temperature,
1901-2005, IPCC WG1
Alpine glacier retreat,
Glacier NP
ca 1910
2007
-- Stewart et al. 2005
Warmer temperatures
increase wildfire
• 1116 records of fire
in Western US
• 6x increase in area
burned since 1986
• Higher spring and
summer
temperatures plus
earlier snow melt
--Westerling, Swetnam et al. 2006;
see also McKenzie et al. 2004
Timing is everything
Early snowmelt--alpine
flowers vulnerable to frost
• David Inouye tracks frost damage to
wildflowers at Gothic CO since 1973
• 1992-1998: 36%
• 1999-2006: 73.9%
Photos: Mel Hart, RMBL
Are we ready for this?
Adaptive Capacity?
Resource managers have limited guidance about
whether or how to address climate change and,
therefore, are uncertain about what actions, if
any, they should take... Without such guidance,
their ability to address climate change and
effectively manage resources is constrained.
-- GAO 2007
Roadmap
Land Ownership of the Intermountain West
• Context: climate change in the
West
• What do we mean by adaptation?
• Yellowstone
• Paths foward
4
Legend
National Park Service
Bureau of Reclamation
State
Military
BLM
Forest Service
Native American
US Wilderness (various)
Fish & Wildlife Service
0
115
230
Miles
460
(Hernandez) Gude and Hansen, MSU
Hansen et al. 2005, Ecol. App.
Hansen et al. 2005, Ecol. App.
“At Risk” Responses:
• bird hot spot
• migration corridor
• irreplaceable area
• cumulative sensitivity to
future growth
Gude et al. 2007, Ecol. App.
Adaptive Capacity:
Yellowstone
• Rural residential
development reduces
adaptive capacity
• Landscape-scale
connectivity to North
may increase adaptive
capacity
Paths Forward
WGA Key
Recommendations
• Climate Change Council
• Federal agencies, tribes, academic, NGOs
• Adaptation Information Clearing House
• Greater incentives for individuals and land trusts
to protect corridors
• Voluntary, flexible term easements for working
landscapes
• See www.westgov.org
Recap
• 1C warming matters in Western Mountains
• 2-5C warming will matter a lot more
• It’s time for adaptation and mitigation
• Feasible conservation strategies on private
lands are critical to protecting landscapes
Background: Judy Graham