Assessing Adaptive Capacity
Tim Williamson – Canadian Forest Service
Adaptive Capacity of Forest
Management Systems
Adaptive
Capacity
Ecological
Social
Adaptability: Is it really that new
to resource management?
Outline
1. Why are we interested in
adaptive capacity?
2. Can we talk coherently about
adaptive capacity?
3. What can be said about the
adaptive capacity of forest
management?
1. Why are we interested in
adaptive capacity?
Sector transformation?
Before
After
Climate change: a new driver of
change ?
Vulnerability
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
capacity
Social and
Climate
Economic +
Change
Change
=
Decisionmaking
environment is
changing
•Increased risk, impacts, and system stress
•Increased uncertainty and complexity
•Decreased predictability
•Adaptation and Re-adaptation
• Same message as previous two slides – adaptation
requirements are increasing – which is why we are
interested in adaptive capacity
2. Can we talk coherently about
adaptive capacity?
Resiliency and Adaptive Capacity
 Combining different types of knowledge for
learning
 Creating opportunity for self organization
through multi-layered governance
 Flexible and open institutions
 Managing under uncertainty
 Adaptive management / adaptive governance
Climate change and adaptive capacity
Adaptive Capacity:
The ability to cope with and adjust to the
impacts of climate change by reducing
negative effects and taking advantage of
opportunities – (Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change 2001)
Determinants and assets
Human
Capital
Social
Capital
Governance
Adaptive
Capacity
Institutions
Knowledge
And
Science
Institutional capital
 Proactive and forward looking
 Embrace change and deal with uncertainty
 Enable adaptation to climate change at multiple
scales – particularly locally
 Variety, learning capacity, autonomy, leadership,
adequate resources for adaptability
 Allow for adaptive management
Governance dynamics
Context
Frames
Actions
Outcomes
Incremental
Reframing
Transforming
Pahl-Wostl. 2009. Global Environmental Change 19:354-365.
3. What can be said about the
capacity of forest
management to adapt
to climate change?
Study of the AC of
Canadian forest managers
 Canada’s forest sector has a generally high capacity
for adaptation however, technical and scientific
capacity in the area of climate change is generally low.
 Lack of suitable information about impacts and
adaptation is a major barrier to adaptation
 Institutional barriers pose significant constraints to
adaptation.
Johnston et al. 2010.Climate change and forest management in Canada:
impacts, adaptive capacity and adaptation options. A state of knowledge report,
Sustainable Forest Management Network, Edmonton, Alberta, 54 pp.
Space
Strategic Planning
Time
Legislation &
Policy
Principles &
Values
Knowledge
Management
Institutional
Culture & Function
Knowledge
Exchange
Leadership
Operationalize
Partnership
paul.gray@mnr.gov.on.ca
Knowledge-driven
Community-empowered
Place/Time-based
Framework to assess organizational
readiness to adapt – Paul Gray -
Adaptive capacity assessment
guide - Canadian Forest Service

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Human capital – The people who manage forests
Partnerships and networks
Science, information, knowledge exchange, technology
Awareness and perceptions of risk
Risk management capacity
Institutions


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Sustainable forest management policy
Assessment and monitoring
Planning
Practices
 Overall rating of generic adaptive capacity
 Overall rating of capacity to adapt to climate change
Conclusions
 Forest sector requirements for adaptability are
increasing
 Need to pay more attention and be more explicit about
the assessment and monitoring of adaptive capacity /
resilience – tools and approaches are becoming
available
 Need to be aware of the trade-offs - between
controllability and adaptability – between
specialization and diversification – between investing
in AC assets and investing in other things – etc
Thank You
Tim Williamson
twilliam@nrcan.gc.ca
(780)325-7372
Factors that contributed to collapse
– Jared Diamond
 Climate change
 Hostile neighbours
 Loss of essential trading partners
 Environmental problems
 Ability to respond to issues
Decision-making environment is changing
Impacts
occurs or
information
about
impacts
becomes
available
Adaptation
Climate change: a new driver
of change ?
“The picture is pretty bleak gentlemen... The worlds climates are
changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain
about the size of a walnut.”
Gary Larson: The Far Side
Human and knowledge capital
 Do we have enough forest managers to cope with and adjust
to the effects of climate change?
 Are forest managers aware of and concerned about climate
change?
 Do they have the necessary education, training, and
knowledge to adapt to climate change?
 To what extent is lack of useable science and knowledge
about climate change impacts and adaptation a significant
barrier to adaptation?
 To what extent is access to science, information, and
knowledge a barrier?
Social capital
 Participation
 Trust and reciprocity
 Networks and partnerships
Littell, Peterson, Millar, O’Halloran. 2012. U.S. national
forests adapt to climate change through sciencemanagement partnerships. Climatic Change. 110:269-296.