When Immovable Object
Meets Irresistible Force
Henry F. Diaz
University of Colorado--CIRES
Boulder, CO
“Have you looked into the eyes of a
climate scientist recently? They look
really scared!”
Michael Pollan, New York Times Magazine
April 20, 2008
“…the world's carbon emissions must peak within the next
10 to 15 years and then fall by half by mid-century to avoid
potentially catastrophic changes in weather patterns”
UN Conference on Environmental Protection and
Climate Change June 2–6, 2008 Bonn, Germany
Simple Summary of the “Climate
Crisis”
Estimates of “irreversible damage”
to Earth System by increasing CO2
concentrations is about 450 ppm
Present concentration about 390
ppm
Growth rate about 1% per year
Almost guaranteed to reach 450 ppm
by the year 2030
9
8
7
6
5
Extent (million sq km)
4
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2007
2006
Greenland Mass Loss – From Gravity Satellite
Surface Melt on Greenland
Melt descending
into a moulin,
a vertical shaft
carrying water
to ice sheet base.
Source: Roger Braithwaite,
University of Manchester (UK)
Arctic Change:
Future loss of
Arctic sea ice
could result in a
loss of 2/3 of the
world's polar bears
within 50 years.
Source: U.S.
Geological Survey
www.usgs.gov/newsroom/s
pecial/polar%5Fbears/
Images:
Sea Ice: Claire Parkinson
& Robert Taylor
Polar Bears: Unknown
Mt. Graham Red Squirrel
“Our home planet is dangerously near
a tipping point at which human-made
greenhouse gases reach a level where
major climate changes can proceed
mostly under their own momentum”
Jim Hansen
America’s West:
Epicenter for Warming
Observed Annual Temperature Anomaly 2000-2006
“Whatever we can do as individuals to
change the way we live at this
suddenly very late date does seems
utterly inadequate to the challenge”
“So, do you still want to talk about
planting gardens?”
Absolutely!
Deforestation is responsible for 17%
of global carbon emissions
Carbon Sequestration
Reforestation
Avoided Deforestation
• Three trees will sequester one ton of
carbon over a lifetime of 55 years
• Urban reforestation very effective at
reducing carbon in the atmosphere through
both direct photosynthesis and shading
effects on cooling loads
www.americanforests.org
“Personal choices, no matter how
virtuous cannot do enough. It will also
take laws and money.”
“Because the climate change crisis is
at its root, a crisis of lifestyle…
addressing it will also involve
profound changes in the way we live”
There ain’t no easy way out…
The End of “Stationarity”
Climate change undermines a
basic assumption of resources
management that the past is
the key to the future
Driving into a fog with unknown
perils, but vastly different
alternative outcomes:
Humongous Pothole Steep
Cliff
The writer Wendell Berry who often
was a source of inspiration to Wallace
Stegner wrote that
“Once our personal connection to
what is wrong becomes clear, then we
have to choose: we can go on as before,
recognizing our dishonesty and living
with it as best we can, or we can begin
the effort to change the way we think
and live”