José Mourinho. Chelsea FC Manager
BBC Online. February 20th 2005
 Plenty of evidence from the past
 Tiny changes in environment
capable of triggering hazardous
geological phenomena
 Climate change is already
starting to affect the solid Earth
 Modelling suggests more to come
1. Looking back
3. Looking ahead
2. Where are we now?
4. The last straw
 Temperature rise fastest for 11,500y
 2000 – 2010 hottest decade on
record after 1990s
 Within 1ºC of highest Temperatures
for ~ 1 million years
 Carbon dioxide levels highest for
15 million years
2º C
Dangerous Climate Change (DCC) threshold?
Where next?
1.34º C
ppm CO2
450
400ppm
0.8º
º C
387
DCC threshold may be well below 450 ppm
UK Met Office study:
280
only 20% chance that holding
levels at 450 ppm would prevent a 2º C rise
Medium emissions scenario (A1B)
© Crown copyright Met Office
Temperature change (°C): 2090s compared to 1990s
© Crown copyright Met Office
 Temperatures up 6°C or so
 Cold, arid climate replaced by
warmer, wetter, conditions
 52 million cubic kilometres of
water shifted from ice sheets
into ocean basins
 2 -3km thick ice sheets melted
at high latitudes
 130m load added to ocean
basins
 Mass change lengthened day
by 4 seconds
Active fault
Depressed
crust
Rising magma
Going up
Going
down
Stuoragurra Fault (northern Norway)
Pärvie Fault (northern Sweden)
Basel 1356
New Madrid 1811-12
The great Storegga landslide
52 million cubic km
of water
Continental
ice sheets
Ocean
basins
Action zone
High Andes (Chile)
Massif Central (France)
Vesuvius
San Andreas (California)
Kolka (Russia) 2002
Bagley Ice Field
Bering glacier
Mount Steller
Iceland uplift
Vatnajökull Ice Cap
Öraefajökull
Bardabunga
Etna
Rainier
Coastal volcanoes
Snow-capped volcanoes
Sollipulli
Casita
Tropical volcanoes
More of this? Haiti 2010
Less of this? Japan 2011
Imja Tsho Nepal
Tajikistan
Rock dam
Lake Sarez
Lake volume: 16 cubic km People threatened: 5.5 million
Pavlof: sea level
Montserrat eruptions: rainfall
Taiwan tremors: typhoons
Japanese earthquakes: snow
More eruptions occur from November to March
Attributed to seasonal redistributions of water mass
 Climate change is set
to be severe
 Global emissions up
58% since 1990
 No real action until
2020 at least
 10 – 30 years to save
Greenland Ice Sheet
 Geological havoc
added to climate
chaos?
16 DEGREES C
EARLY MAY BANK HOLIDAY (May 1st – 4th)
Thursday, May 1st QUESTION TIME
(HOW) CAN WE TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE? Question the experts and air your own views
Friday, May 2nd – Sunday 4th
TALKING IN TWOS evening programme. Listen to some of the country’s top climate change
experts and communicators: Fred Pearce, Mayer Hillman, Tim Lenton, Bob Ward,
Mike Berners-Lee, Mark Maslin
Saturday, May 3rd
SCHOOLS & FAMILIES DAY
Stalls, activities, demonstrations, wild food walks, horse-drawn canal boat rides, music,
art and lots more
FULL PROGRAMME @ www.cromfordmills.org.uk