Climate Change Scenario Planning:
A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty
Leigh Welling
Climate Change Coordinator
National Park Service
Natural Resource Stewardship & Science
Mount Rainier NP, 2006
Bandelier National Monument,
May 20042002
October
Alternative Approaches for
Adaptation Planning
Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology
Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003
What are Scenarios?
Scenarios Are:
• A tool for long-term strategic planning
• Compelling narratives of alternative environments
in which decisions may be played out
• Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible
Scenarios Are Not:
• Predictions or Forecasts
• A method for arriving at the “most likely” future
Scenario Planning
Goal: Challenge assumptions and foster strategic thinking
about possible responses to different futures
“A scenario is a coherent,
internally consistent and
plausible description of a
possible future state of the
world. It is not a forecast;
rather, each scenario is one
alternative image of how the
future can unfold.” - IPCC,
2006
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
May 2007
Scenario Planning:
An Integration of Science and Management
Identify the
Context or
Focal Question
List External
Drivers
Decision makers,
scientists, topical experts
Decision
makers
Analyze
Internal
Dynamics
Build & Test
Scenarios
Policy
Screening
Scientists, topical
experts
Types of Scenarios Æ different purposes
Strategic Æ testing concepts and models
Exploratory Æ moving into the future, e.g., by extending
past trends, considering contingencies
Anticipatory Æ aiming toward preferred futures – and
avoiding ‘nightmares’
Slide adapted from Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
Steps to Scenario Planning
Identify the Context
•
What is the focal issue?
Æintersection of knowable/unknowable and controllable/ uncontrollable
– What will the park landscape look like in 50 years?
– What actions can managers take to protect resources?
List External Drivers
•
What are key uncertainties?
Æ focus on those with large impact on focal issue: 2-3 critical themes
Æ consider views of principal actors
– How will timing and amount of precipitation change?
– What will funding and public support look like?
Steps to Scenario Planning
Analyze Internal Dynamics
•
What are the impacts to changes in external drivers?
Æfocus on indicator variables and how they interact with one another
– What park resources are most sensitive to change?
– Are there cascading effects or thresholds responses to beware of?
Build and Test Scenarios
•
What are primary storylines that capture the range of
plausible futures?
Æ link external forces/internal dynamics/indicators
Æ link past/present/future
Æ focus on expanding thinking about current system
Lets look at an example process
Processes Respond Rapidly
1. Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
Governance and
“Well just Delay” Scenario
1. Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
Policy Actions
Socio-Environmental
Weak to Little
Policy Action
1.Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
“Get with it” Scenario
Aggressive
Policy Action
“Lots” of Luck Scenario
Processes
4 Quad Scenario
Framework
Easy Street Scenario
1. Scenario Details
2.
3.
.
.
n
Processes Respond very Slowly
Slide from Bob Corell, H. John Heinz III
Center for Science, Economics, and the
Environment
Steps to Scenario Planning
Scenario Testing
Æ Test for internal consistency
Æ Assess plausibility: including human response
Æ Identify strengths, weaknesses
Policy Screening / Planning
Æ Test, analyze scenarios with respect to existing and
potential policies
Æ Do some policies work under all scenarios?
Æ Do some policies lead to ‘traps’ or ‘dead ends’?
Traps in Scenario Planning
• Anchoring to details of a specific scenario
Æ important to focus on patterns (trends,
thresholds, cascading events) rather than
forecast values
• Keep in mind models can be too cautious as
well as too extreme (e.g. sea level rise
estimates)
• Scenarios as ‘intensification of the present’
An Adaptation
Cascade
Plan
Craft and Implement
Long-Range Plan
Controlling Projections
Tease out Key
Projections with MultiStresses
Track
4 Quad Scenarios
Develop Scenarios
Downscale
Downscale Key
Parameters at needed
scales
Key Tracking Indicators
and Evaluate Progress
Progress
Set Time Scale
Set the Time Scales
Frame the
Frame the Context
and Scale (park,
ecosystem, etc)
Problem
Slide from Bob Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for
Science, Economics, and the Environment 31
Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop:
Joshua Tree National Park
Nov 13-14, 2007
Building and Testing
High precipitation events
When it Rains
it Pours
Summer Soaker
Spring /
summer
Winter
Dune
Low precipitation
Joshua Tree National Park Workshop:
Æ 3 Scenarios
“Summer Soaker”
Current Mojave Desert: > 900 meters in elevation
“Summer Soaker”
Plausible future Mojave Desert: > 1100 meters in elevation
“Summer Soaker”
Expansion of Sonoran ecosystem
“Summer Soaker”
Potential loss of “transitional” environments
“When it rains, it pours”
Fires, 1967-2006: Approx. 40,000 acres burned
“When it rains, it pours”
Plausible future fires: Approx. 600,000 acres burned
“When it rains, it pours”
Extensive conversion to non-native grasses
“Dune”
Persistent and extensive drought; loss of woody species
“Dune”
Increased erosion; loss of vegetative cover; dune formation
Common Themes & Potential
Management Actions
• Loss of Mojave Desert species and expansion of
Sonoran:
– For high priority species such as the Joshua Tree, park
managers may consider relocation to higher elevations to assist
in their survival
– Other actions might include research on hybrids; strengthening
seed banks and nurseries to support future restoration
• Increased size and severity of wildland fire:
– Exploring different options for fire breaks on the landscape
• Invasion of non-native plants:
– Prioritize increased funding to support staff efforts preventing
spread of non-native species, esp grasses
One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional
Planning
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario
Planning
Elements
Common to A-D
Possible Futures
Elements
Common to A-C
Elements
Common to A-B
A
B
C
D
Slide adapted from Tucson water plan, 2007
The real value of scenario
planning may be in the process
• Kleiner (1999) describes scenario-building exercises as
“conversations designed to help a group of people trick
themselves to see past their own blind spots”.
• For conservation, major benefits are
(1) increased understanding of key uncertainties
(2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into planning, and
(3) improved capacity for adaptive management.