Higher Education:
evidence on student outcomes
May 2011
Robin Naylor
Economics, Warwick
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Themes
1.
Socio-economic mobility
Education => mobility . . . or persistence?
2.
Willetts’ queue-jumpers
A dark cloud . . . but with a silver lining?
3.
Browne, fees and the public benefit
Evidence on the private returns
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1.
Socio-economic mobility
Education => mobility . . . or persistence?
Consider evidence on mobility in UK (PTO)
Comparisons:
UK vs US vs Nordic countries
(role of education)
UK: 1958 born vs 1970 born
(Gregg-Machin on HE)
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Socio-economic Mobility
Transition Matrix: UK, Father/Son
Son
Father oq1
oq2
fq1
0.303
fq2
fq3
fq4
fq5
0.107
oq3
oq4
oq5
0.122
0.297
Fig 1: An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK (NCDS)
Robin Naylor
18th May 2011
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Socio-economic mobility
Education => mobility . . . or persistence?
Consider evidence on mobility in UK
Comparisons:
UK vs US vs Nordic countries
(role of education)
UK: 1958 born vs 1970 born
(Gregg-Machin on HE)
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Socio-economic mobility
Role of pre-HE
Crucial: most differences in educational
outcomes by family background are
established by age 16 . . .
Role of HE
. . . but differences continue into HE
(and beyond)
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Socio-economic mobility
Differences continue into HE
If A-levels are a levelplaying field and there
is no financial
deterrent from fees.
A
W
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Socio-economic mobility
Differences continue into HE
But if A-levels are not
a level-playing field . .
.
A
i
j
W
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Socio-economic mobility
There is clear evidence that A-levels are not a level-playing
field:
Naylor and Smith (OBES) + HEFCE + Schwartz
http://www.warwick.ac.uk/go/robinnaylor/publications/obes
2001.pdf (page 10)
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Themes
Figure 2 leads neatly to a discussion of:
2.
Willetts’ queue-jumpers
A dark cloud . . . but with a silver lining?
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Willetts’ queue-jumpers
A
W
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A further concern:
If up-front fees are phased in . . .
A
W
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An alternative to the graduate tax:
High Fees and Generous income-related
grants + fair admissions
A
W
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3.
Browne, fees and the public benefit
Economists’ concept of external benefits/costs
imply subsidies/taxes
e.g. Vaccination/tax on tobacco
Browne:
No external benefits from HE
(quote)
Hence withdrawal of public
subsidy
Academic community has not won argument
about public benefits of HE
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3.
Browne, fees and the public benefit
Let’s just consider the private benefits
Dearing £400k premium over a lifetime
Browne: £120k
(different methodology)
But both ignore variation around average
(other than by institution and course)
Yet these are considerable . . .
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Figure 1b:
Long-Term Trends in Participation in Higher Education (Age Participation Index (API))
API (%)
50
40
30
20
10
1960
Source: DfES.
Entry interval
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Wage obs interval
1990
1995
2000
NCDS – BCS70 cohorts
Note: (i) 1977-1989 conceals gender difference
1977 1989 Λ
W-Z (LFS)
22% 24% 2%pts
HE API males
17% 23% 6%pts
HE API females
(ii) Wage observations capture cohort neighbour effects
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Evidence of returns to HE from birth cohort studies in Britain?
HE API
NCDS
1958
Birth cohort
BCS70
1970
Birth cohort
1
HE API
+4 cohorts
Earnings premium (%)
Men
Women
13% (1977)
14%
12-18
18% (1989)1
30%
15
34-38
18
Conceals extent of growth in female participation in HE.
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Selected Results of occupational earnings equation for the 1993 cohort
MALES
Coeff
FEMALES
Coeff
0.038***
0.037***
II.2
-0.054***
-0.042***
III
-0.094***
-0.053***
Other
-0.080***
-0.079***
Variable
Degree class
I
II.1 (default)
Combined with our BCS70 results:
Average Graduate Premium
Av Premium for Grad with 1st/2.1
Av Premium for Grad with 2.2/3
= £120k (Browne)
= £160k
= £80k
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Returns by degree class (all UK university students)
Figure 5a: Coefficients on degree class variables over time ( constant earnings) - Males
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
Coeff
0.00
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.10
-0.12
Year
First
2:2
Third
Other
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