Cold Regions Hyd
drometeorology in
Western Canada: The IP3 Network
Julie Friddell1, John Pomeroy1,
Sean Carey2, William Quinton3
WC2N Workshop
29 September 2007
1University
of Saskatchewan; 2Carleton University; 3Wilfrid Laurier University
IP3...
IP3
...is
is devoted to understanding watter
supply and weather systems in colld
regions
g
(Rockies
(
and western Arcticc))
...will contribute to better predictio
on
off regional
i l andd local
l l weather,
th clim
limate,
t
and water resources in cold region
ns, including ungauged basin
streamflow, changes in snow and water
w
supplies, and calculation of
freshwater inputs to the Arctic Ocean
...has organized a Users' Advisory
y Committee to guide
development of relevant data and
model outputs
Network Investigators
g
Sean Carey, Carleton University
Richard Essery,
Essery University of Wales,
Wales Aberrystwyth
Raoul Granger, National Hydrological Ressearch
Centre, Environment Canada (EC)
Masaki Hayashi, University of Calgary
Rick Janowicz, Yukon Department of Envvironment
Philipp Marsh,, University
y of Saskatchewann/NHRC,, EC
Scott Munro, University of Toronto
Alain Pietroniro, Univ. of Saskatchewan//NHRC, EC
John Pomeroy (PI)
(PI), University of Saskatcchewan
William Quinton, Wilfrid Laurier Univerrsity
Ken Snelgrove, Memorial University of Newfoundland
N
Ri Soulis,
Ric
S li University
U i
it off Waterloo
Wt l
Chris Spence, University of Saskatchewann/NHRC, EC
Diana Verseghy, University of Waterloo/M
MSC, EC
(people in bold are on Scientific Committee)
Collaborators
Peter Blanken, University of Colorado
Tom Brown,
Brown University of Saskatchewan
Doug Clark, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK
K
Bruce Davison, HAL - Environment Canada
Mike Demuth,, Natural Resources Canada
Vincent Fortin, MRD - Environment Canada
Ron Goodson, HAL - Environment Canada
N
Chris Hopkinson, Centre of Geographic Sciences, NS
Tim Link, University of Idaho
Newell Hedstrom, NWRI - Environment Canada
Richard Heck, University of Guelph
Jonii Onclin,
O li University
i
i off Saskatchewan
S k h
Murray Mackay, CRD - Environment Canada
Danny Marks, USDA - Agricultural Research Servvice
Nick Rutter
Rutter, University of Sheffield,
Sheffield UK
Frank Seglenieks, University of Waterloo
Mike Solohub, University of Saskatchewan
Brenda Toth,
Toth HAL - Environment Canada
Cherie Westbrook, University of Saskatchewan
Bob Reid, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada
Rob Schincariol
Schincariol, Univ.
Univ of Western Ontario
Kevin Shook, Alberta Environment
Uli Strasser, LMU, Munich, Germany
Bryan Tolson
Tolson, University of Waterloo
Adam Winstral, USDA - ARS
Partners
Alberta Environment
Cold Regions Research Centre, Wilfrid Lau
urier Univ.
Diavik Diamond Mines, Inc.
Environment Canada
Climate Research Division (CRD)
y (HAL)
Hydrometeorology & Arctic Laboratory
Meteorological Research Branch (MRB
B)
National Water Research Institute (NW
WRI)
Water Survey of Canada
GEWEX/GLASS
Indian and Northern Affairs Canada - Waterr Resources
International Polar Year (IPY) - Arctic Hydrra
I t
International
ti l Polar
P l Year
Y (IPY) - Cold
C ld Land
L d Processes
Natural Resources Canada
Northwest Territories Power Corporation
Parks Canada
P di i
Predictions
in
i Ungauged
U
d Basins
B i (PUB)
S k h
Saskatchewan
W
Watershed
h dA
Authority
h i
Yukon Environment
USDA Agricultural Research Service
Board of Directors
Ming-Ko Woo (Chair) –
McMaster University
Tim Aston/Erica Wilson –
CFCAS
Dan Moore – University of
British Columbia
John Pomeroy (PI)
Bob Reid – Indian and Northern Affaairs Canada, Yellowknife
Vincent Fortin – Environment Canadaa, Montreal
Julie Friddell (Network Manager, Seccretary)
Why IP3?
Need to forecast changing annual fllow/
peak discharge in streams and rivers in
i the
Rockies and North
i consumptive
i use off Rock
ky
Increasing
Mountain water in Prairie Provinces
Uncertainty in engineering design for
f resource (oil & gas,
gas diamond and
other mines) development and restoraation activities in small to medium
size ‘ungauged’ basins
Opportunity to include cold regionss processes in coupled atmospherichydrological models to reduce uncertaainty at small spatial scales in:
Atmospheric impacts on watter resources
Simulation of land-atmospheere interaction
Cycling and storage of waterr
Prediction of future climate change
c
Naturalized Flow of South Saskatchewan
River entering Lake
L
Diefenbaker
18,000,000,000
Natural
Annual Flo
A
ow m3
16 000 000 000
16,000,000,000
Actual
14,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 19
950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Natural flow: Decline of 1.2 billiion m3 over 90 years (-12%)
Actual flow: Decline of 1.1 billiion m3 over 30 years (-15%)
Decline of 4 billion
n m3 over 90 years (-40%)
( 40%)
Note: 70% of decline due to conssumption, 30% due to hydrology
Upstream consumption: 7%-42% of naturalized flows in last 15 years
Date of Spri
p ngg Freshet
Mackenzie River at Fort Simpson
150
Hay River at Hay River
Date of Annual Peak Discharge
g
210
0
Date of Annual Freshet Peak
Julyy
May
Julia
an Day
Jullian Day
180
0
120
June
e
150
0
April
M y
May
90
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
Courtesy Derek Faria
Faria,, INAC
2000
120
0
2010
01930
1
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
Processes
Æ Multi-scale observations of
effect
ff t off radiation,
di ti wind,
i d vegetatio
t tion,
and topography on the interactionn
b t
between
snow,
water, soil, and air
IP3 Research Basins
Anticipated Results:
Processes
New soil physics parameters
for organic and frozen soils
Control of lateral flow establisshed for various cold regions
environments
Improved turbulent transfer reelationships over snow and
gglacier ice in complex
p terrain
Improved short- and long-wav
ve radiation relationships for
vegetation
g
canopies
p on snow-cov
vered slopes
p
Parameterisation
Æ Scaling of
hydrological
y
g
processes
Æ Minimize
model complexity
while reproducing
the essential
behaviour of the
system
Anticipated Results:
Parameterisation
Runoff and streamflow, includ
ding
‘fill and spill’ method
Advection, evaporation, and ice
on small lakes
Blowing snow redistribution and
a other mass, phase, and
radiation changes in snow
Upscaled radiation and turbullent fluxes from snow, snowcovered area depletion
Prediction
Æ Water resources (storage,
discharge snow cover,
discharge,
cover soil
moisture), atmosphere-ground
interaction (evaporation),
(evaporation) and
weather and climate
Anticipated Results:
– Prediction
MEC/MESH
C/ S for
o cold
co d region
eg onss –
developed and tested
CRHM for small northern an
nd mountain basins
Improved prediction in ungaauged basins – streamflow
prediction with less calibration
n of model parameters from
gauged flows
Improved weather prediction
n – quantify importance of
land-atmosphere feedback in cold
c
regions
Improved climate prediction
n – benefits from improved
land surface scheme physics and
a parameterisation
IP3 Final Outputs
Improved understanding of cold regions
hydrological
h d l i l processes att multiple
lti l scales
Unique observational archive of reseearch
basin data
More effective incorporation of cold
d regions processes and
pparameterisations into hydrological
y
g
g
g
an
nd meteorological
models at regional
and smaller scales
Improved environmental predictive capability in cold regions in
response to greater water resource dem
d mands:
d
→ Enhanced hydrological and atm
mospheric model performance at
multiple spatial scales and at sccales requested by users
→ Improved streamflow predictio
on in ungauged basins with less
s from ggauged
calibration of model parameter
p
g flows
→ Improved weather and climatee prediction due to rigorous model
development and testing
Users’ Advisory
Committee
Public and private:
community, government, indusstry,…
Goal is to provide informatio
on that can be used in regional
planning/policy making, stream
mflow/flood forecasting, water
t environmental
i
t l co
ti andd northern
th
management,
onservation,
development
Interactive workshops for outtreach to practitioners and
feedback on applicability of ressearch
Recent Activities
Field work began in spring in all
bbasins,
s s, new
ew field
e d equ
equipment
p e installed
s ed
Model development:
CLASS 3.3 finalized
CRHM – initialized for most bassins,
participated in SnowMIP2, maany new parameterisations added
MEC/MESH – initialized for sev
veral basins, training workshop
GEM Modeller, several students an
nd postdocs started summer 2007
LiDAR surveys of all 8 basins comp
pleted August 2007
Lake O’Hara and Peyto
y Glacier – co
omingg up!
p
Scotty Creek (NWT) – parameterisiing wetland frost table depth, runoff
Wolf Creek ((Yukon)) – tests of freezze/thaw soil simulation algorithms
g
Marmot Creek (Rockies) – blowing
g snow model, etc.
Interaction between
n Subsurface Water
Flow and Heat Tran
nsfer in a Subarctic
P
Permafros
f stt P
Peatland
tl d
Masaki Hayashi1, Nicole Wright2, Bill Quinton3
1Dept.
of Geoscience, Univ. of
o Calgary, Canada
2Dept. of Geography, Simon Fraser
F
Univ., Canada
3Cold Region Res. Centre, Wilfrid
W
Laurier Univ., Canada
Acknowledgement:
Water Survey of Canada, Ft. Simpson
Canadian Fo
Foundation
ndation of Clim
mate and Atmospheric Sci
Sci.
Natural Sciences and Engine
eering Research Council
Permafrost Area
Continuous (> 90%)
Discontinuous (50-90%)
Discontinuous (10-50%)
Ft. Simpson
Isolated patches (< 10%)
No permafrost
Mackenzie
Basin
Discontinuous Permafrost near Ft. Simpson
flat bog
peat plateau
channel fen
Increasing Size of We
etlands with Warming
1947
2000
250
50 m
Frost Table Surv
vey on a Peat Plateau
cha
annel fen
flat bog
re
elative elev. (m
m)
40 m
1
0
-1
ground surface
f t table
frost
t bl
June 4, 2005
Frost Table Depth
p Distribution
D
in 2005
0
frequency (%)
10
20
30
40
0
Skewed distribution with a
tail extending deeper.
de
epth (m))
0.2
Non-linear feedback
causes the skewness?
0.4
06
0.6
0.8
May 6
May 15
June 4
Sep. 5
1
Number of points = 40 to 80
HYPOTHESIS:
HYPOTHESIS
Frost table depth is
Frost-table
controlled by the soil
moisture distribution
distribution.
Frost Table Depth
p in
i the Summer End
Surveyed in late Augu
ust or early September
Bars indicate one standard
d deviation.
frost ttable de
epth (m
m)
0.9
0.8
07
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
300
400
4
annual precip (mm)
500
Conclusions
Melt water converges to depressions by
subsurface flow.
saturated peat
Wet peat has high thermal conductivity →
enhances heat conduction.
Depression continue to receive subsurface
runoff, frost table gets deeper.
Parameterization Objecttives: Thermal Modelling
(Sean Carey
Carey, Carleton University)
Evaluate the performance of commonly use
ed simulation
algorithms in permafrost regions:
Freeze-Thaw algorithm to test Soil parameterizations
p
for mineral and organic soils
Tested algorithms are Semi-empirical (1), Analytical
A
(2), and
Numerical (3)
( )
Selected Results:
1. Selection of parameterisation more impo
ortant for organic
soils than mineral soils
2. Semi-empirical algorithms not recommen
nded (due to large
spatial and temporal variations in the param
meter values)
3. Numerical algorithms performed best – traced ground
freezing and thawing most precisely, but req
quire very high
temporal resolution and assimilation of soil moisture
m
data
S il?
Soil?
Sources of water in discontinuous alpine
catchments remains unclear
300
2006 Post-Freshet Discharge
250
GB_01
GB_02
GB_03
GB_04
200
Distributed hydrometric and
hydrochemical
y
sampling
p g approach
pp
used
to assess areas of basins that contribute
water during different times of the year.
150
100
50
June 20
June 30
July 9
July 19
July 29
Unlike previous research, deep groundwater
sources are identified as an important source
of streamflow, whereas previous studies
have emphasized supra-permafrost water
Deep
pg
groundwater contribution increases as
summer progresses, whereas suprapermafrost water declines.
3000
800
-1
1
0
June 10
-1
1
-2
2
Major
Ions
s (mg
Major
Ions
(m
mg
s skm) )
Discharrge (L s-1)
Process Objective: Explore dow
wnstream changes in flow and
hydrochemistry to elucidate ch
hanges in streamflow sources
Major Anions + Cations
(post-freshet)
Major Anions
+ Cations
normalized for sub-basin area
GB 01
GB_01
2500
GB_02
GB_03
GB_04
600
2000
1500
400
1000
200
500
0
June 10
June 20
June 30
July 9
July
July 19
July
July 29
29
Snow Processes
s and Modelling
John Pomeroy
Centre for Hydrology
University of Saskattchewan,
tchewan Saskatoon
and colla
aborators
Richard Essery (U Edinburgh),
Edinburgh) Kevin Shook (U Saskatchewan)
and sttudents
Dan Bewley,
y, Pablo Dornes, Xing
g Fang,
g, Rick Janowicz,,
Warren Helgason, Nicholas Kinar
Blowing Snow: Tra
ansport (Saltation),
Redistribution, and Sublimation
S
of Snow
How to Model Bllowing Snow over
Complex La
andscapes?
T
Topography
h
2 km
V t ti
Vegetation
Dual Scale Approach
~250,000 grid cells
7 HRU
Comparison of Mod
del to Observations
Linear simulation of westerly flow over Wolf Creek, Yukon
Windspeed
Direction
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
3 km
Essery and Pomeroy, in preparation
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Simulation of Hills
slope
p Snowdrift
3 km
Distributed Blow
wing Snow Model
Distributed
Di
t ib t d
Blowing
g Snow
Model Seasonal
Snow
Accumulation
Trail Valley
C k NWT
Creek,
light tones are
deeper snow
Turbulence genera
ation mechanisms
in mou
untains
upper level winds
strong shea
ar zone
transported turbulence
v
valley
winds
tributary valley
winds
i d
surface wind
ds (internal B-L)
flux tower in clearing
Wolf Cre
eek shrubss
Ma
armot Cree
ek level fo
orest
Solar radiation to snow beneath
b
shrubs and trees
1000
400
SW (W/m )
300
2
2
SW (W/m )
800
600
400
200
0
123
200
100
0
124
125
74
Day (2003)
Pomeroy et al., J Hydrometteorol, submitted
75
Day (2005)
76
Complex Terrrain Snowmelt
Solution: landscape units
20o slopes
South Face
Valley Bottom
North Face
Modelling
g Approach
Aggregated vss. Distributed
Distributed models can capture snowm
melt
synchronicity effects
Distributed models better reproduce Snowmelt
and Streamflow in complex terrain than
aggregated models
Upcoming Meetings
IP3 2nd Workshop to be held at
C ld Regions
Cold
R i
Research
R
h Centre,
C
Wilfrid Laurier University,
Waterloo ON,
Waterloo,
ON 88-10
10 November 2007
2
Other meetings to be planned:
Themes 2 and 3 Workshop (Paarameterisation/Prediction)
CRHM training Workshop (po
ossibly January)
U
Users'
' Ad
Advisory
i
W
Workshop
kh
Thank you!
Please visit us at
www.usask.ca/ip3
k /i 3
Thank you
y to IP3 participants for providing photos!