EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop
Experience Curves for Wind and
Observed Cost Reductions
Michael Durstewitz
ISET
Jan. 22nd , 2003
International Energy Agency
PARIS
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Acknowledgements
Partners:
ü Lund University (S)
ü Risoe (DK)
ü ISET (D)
Funded by
European Union
DG RESEARCH / FP5
ENG1-CT2000-00116
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
2
Outline of the presentation
Ÿ Development of wind energy applications in past decades
(installation, size)
Ÿ Background on analysed data
Ÿ Calculation of experience curve
Ÿ Examples
Ÿ Cost reduction
Ÿ conclusion
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Development of installed capacity
30000
MW
World
25000
Europe
Germany
4
Start of
EXTOOL
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Installed capacity by countries (Jan. 2001)
Denmark
13%
5
EXTOOL data refer to
• 85% of European capacity
• 62% of global capacity
Spain
14%
Sweden
1%
Germany
34%
UK
2%
Netherlands
3%
Rest of Europe
6%
Rest of World
27%
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Start 2001
Germany
Denmark
Spain
Sweden
UK
Netherlands
Rest of Europe
Rest of World
total
capacity [MW]
6113
2297
2402
231
409
448
1072
4734
17706
Milestones of Turbine Development
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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Experience curve: cybernetic model
Input
€
Producing
System
Experience Curve
Source: IEA
Performance:
€ / MW
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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Output
MW
Aggregated wind power system
Cost of generated electricity
Total cost of installation of wind turbines
Ex-works cost of wind turbines
Cost of components such as blades, towers, generator etc.
Additional cost of installation e.g planning, approval, foundation,
installation, site preparation, roads, grid connection etc.
Operation and maintenance cost
Wind capture, which depends on wind turbines performance, reliability,
macro and micro siting etc
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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9
Construction of the wind energy experience curve
ü Selection of number + total capacity
for each turbine type and each year
ü Assignment of prices from official
price lists for each turbine type and
each year
ü calculation of the specific prices
ü calculation of weighted prices
ü transformation of nominal prices
to real prices with GDP-deflator
ü currency conversion
ü plotting of the experience curve
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Calculation of average prices
Step 1: Avg. price by year
(nat. currency)
10
pt
å p ⋅n
=
åc ⋅n
i =1
i =1
Step 2: Inflation correction
(nat. currency)
Step 3: currency conversion
à ref. currency
pt ,real =
pt ,ref
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
i
i
i
i
pt
kGDP (t )
pt ,real
=
k curr (t )
Different categories of experience curves
Category
Experience Curve
11
By country, time periods,
Turbine size, etc
Production perspective
I
Experience curves for wind turbines (WT) produced
by different manufacturers
II
Experience curves for the specific cost of electricity
for WT produced by different manufactures
III
Experience curves for levelised cost of electricity for
WT produced by country
Market perspective
IV
Experience curves installed in different countries
V
Experience curves for cost of electricity in a country
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Experience Curve for sold wind turbines
Price of wind turbines (DKK/kW) relative to 2000 prices
10000
10000
German manufacturers, PR=94%
Price of wind turbines (DEM/kW) relative to 2000 prices
Danish manufacturers, PR=92%
100000
12
1000
1000
1
10
100
1000
1
10000
10
100
Cumulative sale (MW)
1000
10000
Cumulative sale (MW)
Experience Curve for specific cost of wind electricity
10,00
Danish manufacturers, PR=87%
1000
1
10
100
1000
10000
Specific price of wind turbies (DEM/kWh) relative to 2000 prices
Specific price of wind turbies (DKK/kWh) relative to 2000 prices
10000
1,00
German manufacturers, PR=88%
0,10
10,0
Cumulative sale (MW)
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
100,0
1000,0
Cumulative sale (MW)
10000,0
Exp. Curve for total installation price of wind turbines
13
Denmark, PR=92%
10000
100000
1000
1
10
100
1000
10000
Cumulative installed turbines (MW)
1000000
Total installation price (DKK/kW) relative to 2000 prices
Spain, PR=91%
Total price of wind turbines installed (SEK/kW) relative to 200
prices
Total installation price (DKK/kW) relative to 2000 price
100000
Sweden, PR=96% (89%)
10000
1000
1
10
100
Cumulative installed turbiones (MW)
100000
0,01
0,1
1
10
100
1000
10000
Cumulative installed turbines (MW)
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
1000
Sources of cost reduction of wind turbines
Ÿ
Ÿ
Ÿ
Ÿ
Ÿ
Ÿ
Ÿ
Wind turbines
Process development
Input prices
Scale effects
Additional costs
Wind capture
O&M costs
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Product cycle of wind turbines (Enercon)
15
Summe - ANZAHL
300
250
200
150 # of sold turbines
KW
100
0
200
300
80
55
30
year
500
600
850
1000
1500
1800
8
876
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
50
JAHR
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
rated power [kW]
Product cycle of wind turbines (Enercon)
16
AHL
1800
1500
1000
850
600
500 rated po
300
200
80
55
# of
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
91
92
90
89
88
86 0
87
500
30
year
Product cycle of Enercon wind turbines for the German market (b)
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
Analysis of sources of cost reduction
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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Example of turbine dimensions
Enercon E66
1.5 MW
Enercon E 112
4.5 MW
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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Sources of cost reduction
Delivery of rotor ( R ≈ 30m)
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Delivery of rotor ( R ≈ 50m)
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
sources of cost reduction
•
experiences in skills of craftsmen in
the production line e.g. manual
generator construction, turbine
assembly, rotor blade production
•
non turbine specific components
like inverters, switch cabinets,
control systems, sensors, software
à modularity of components
•
turbine specific components e.g.
towers, generators and rotor blades
•
Use of machine platforms
•
experiences in engineering know
how, load calculation, CAD, etc.
•
Siting and installation
•
Grid conection and grid
compatibility
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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Conclusions
The analysed technology sector
• is a rather young technology
• shows significant growth rates
• the model development is extremely
dynamic (size, technology)
• has moderate PRs
• shows similar PRs for different
markets
• has a strong market demand
à prices
EXTOOL – EXCETP 6-workshop, IEA, Paris, Jan. 22-24, 2003
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