EXPORTS AND
DOMESTIC DEMAND
PRESSURE: A DYNAMIC
PANEL DATA MODEL
FOR THE EURO
AREA COUNTRIES
Working Papers 2014
Elena Bobeica | Paulo Soares Esteves | António Rua |
Karsten Staehr
15
15
EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC
DEMAND PRESSURE:
A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA
MODEL FOR THE EURO
AREA COUNTRIES
Working Papers 2014
Elena Bobeica | Paulo Soares Esteves | António Rua | Karsten Staehr
October 2014
The analyses, opinions and findings of these papers represent the views of
the authors, they are not necessarily those of the Banco de Portugal or the
Eurosystem
Please address correspondence to
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department
Av. Almirante Reis 71, 1150-012 Lisboa, Portugal
T +351 213 130 000 | estudos@bportugal.pt
Lisbon, 2014
•
www.bportugal.pt
WORKING PAPERS | Lisbon 2014 • Banco de Portugal Av. Almirante Reis, 71 | 1150-012 Lisboa • www.bportugal.pt •
Edition Economics and Research Department • ISBN 978-989-678-303-7(online) • ISSN 2182-0422 (online)
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!! Working Papers | 2014
WORKING PAPERS
2012
1|12
Public-private wage gaps in the period
prior to the adoption of the euro: An application based on longitudinal data
Maria Manuel Campos | Mário Centeno
10|12 The effects of public spending externalities
Valerio Ercolani | João Valle e Azevedo
11|12 Collateral requirements: Macroeconomic
fluctuations and macro-prudential policy
2|12
Asset pricing with a bank risk factor
Caterina Mendicino
João Pedro Pereira | António Rua
12|12 Wage rigidity and employment adjust3|12
A wavelet-based assessment of market
ment at the firm level: Evidence from sur-
risk: The emerging markets case
vey data
António Rua | Luis C. Nunes
Daniel A. Dias | Carlos Robalo Marques |
Fernando Martins
4|12
Cohesion within the euro area and the U.
S.: A wavelet-based view
5|12
13|12 How to create indices for bank branch fi-
António Rua | Artur Silva Lopes
nancial performance measurement using
Excess worker turnover and fixed-term
Fernando A. F. Ferreira | Paulo M. M.
contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier
Rodrigues | Sérgio P. Santos | Ronald W.
system
Spahr
MCDA techniques: An illustrative example
Mário Centeno | Álvaro A. Novo
6|12
The
dynamics
of
capital
14|12 On International policy coordination and
structure
decisions
Paula Antão | Diana Bonfim
7|12
Quantile regression for long memory testing: A case of realized volatility
Uwe Hassler | Paulo M. M. Rodrigues |
Antonio Rubia
8|12
9|12
Competition in the Portuguese Economy:
the correction of global imbalances
Bruno Albuquerque | Cristina Manteu
15|12 Identifying the determinants of downward
wage rigidity: some methodological considerations and new empirical evidence
Daniel A. Dias | Carlos Robalo Marques |
Fernando Martins
16|12 Systemic risk analysis using forward-look-
An overview of classical indicators
ing distance-to-default series
João Amador | Ana Cristina Soares
Martín Saldías
Market perception of fiscal sustainability:
17|12 Competition in the Portuguese Economy:
An application to the largest euro area
Insights from a profit elasticity approach
economies
João Amador | Ana Cristina Soares
Maximiano Pinheiro
18|12 Liquidity risk in banking: Is there herding?
Diana Bonfim | Moshe Kim
I
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL • Working Papers
19|12 Bank size and lending specialization
Diana Bonfim | Qinglei Dai
Sonia Torres | Pedro Portugal | John T.
Addison | Paulo Guimarães
10|13 The output effects of (non-separable) gov-
2013
ernment consumption at the zero lower
bound
Valerio Ercolani | João Valle e Azevedo
01|13 Macroeconomic forecasting using lowfrequency filters
João Valle | Azevedo, Ana Pereira
02|13 Everything you always wanted to know
about sex discrimination
Ana Rute Cardoso | Paulo Guimarães |
Pedro Portugal
03|13 Is there a role for domestic demand pres-
11|13 Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area
economy: How big can they get in crisis
times?
Gabriela Castro | Ricardo M. Felix | Paulo
Julio | Jose R. Maria
12|13 Survey evidence on price and wage rigidities in Portugal
Fernando Martins
sure on export performance?
Paulo Soares Esteves | António Rua
04|13 Ageing and fiscal sustainability in a small
euro area economy
Gabriela Castro | José R. Maria | Ricardo
Mourinho Félix | Cláudia Rodrigues Braz
13|13 Characterizing economic growth paths
based on new structural change tests
Nuno Sobreira | Luis C. Nunes | Paulo M.
M. Rodrigues
14|13 Catastrophic job destruction
Anabela Carneiro | Pedro Portugal | José
05|13 Mind the gap! The relative wages of immi-
Varejão
grants in the Portuguese labour market
Sónia Cabral | Cláudia Duarte
06|13 Foreign direct investment and institutional reform: Evidence and an application to
15|13 Output effects of a measure of tax shocks
based on changes in legislation for
Portugal
Manuel Coutinho Pereira | Lara Wemans
Portugal
Paulo Júlio | Ricardo Pinheiro-Alves | José
Tavares
16|13 Inside PESSOA - A detailed description of
the model
Vanda Almeida | Gabriela Castro | Ricardo
07|13 Monetary policy shocks: We got news!
Sandra Gomes | Nikolay Iskrev | Caterina
Mendicino
08|13 Competition in the Portuguese Economy:
M. Félix | Paulo Júlio | José R. Maria
17|13 Macroprudential regulation and macroeconomic activity
Sudipto Karmakar
Estimated price-cost margins under imperfect labour markets
João Amador | Ana Cristina Soares
18|13 Bank capital and lending: An analysis of
commercial banks in the United States
Sudipto Karmakar | Junghwan Mok
09|13 The sources of wage variation: a threeway high-dimensional fixed effects regression model
Working Papers | 2014
2014
1|14
Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS
interest rates
regressions
Daniel Carvalho | Michael Fidora
Cláudia Duarte
2|14
10|14 Capital inflows and euro area long-term
The risk-taking channel of monetary policy
11|14 Misallocation and productivity in the lead
– exploring all avenues
up to the Eurozone crisis
Diana Bonfim | Carla Soares
Daniel A. Dias | Carlos Robalo Marquesz |
Christine Richmond
3|14
Global value chains: Surveying drivers,
12|14 Global value chains: a view from the euro
measures and impacts
João Amador | Sónia Cabral
area
Has US household deleveraging ended?
Stehrer
João Amador | Rita Cappariello | Robert
4|14
a model-based estimate of equilibrium
13|14 A dynamic quantitative macroeconomic
debt
5|14
Bruno Albuquerque | Ursel Baumann |
model of bank runs
Georgi Krustev
Elena Mattana | Ettore Panetti
The weather effect: Estimating the effect
14|14 Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a
of voter turnout on electoral outcomes in
model-based analysis
Italy
S. Gomes | P. Jacquinot | M. Pisani
Alessandro Sforza
15|14 Exports and domestic demand pressure:
6|14
Persistence in the Banking Industry:
a dynamic panel data model for the euro
Fractional integration and breaks in
area countries
memory
Elena Bobeica | Paulo Soares Esteves |
Uwe
Hassler,
Paulo
M.M.
Rodrigues,
Antonio Rubia
7|14
Financial integration and the Great
Leveraging
Daniel Carvalho
8|14
Euro Area Structural Reforms in Times of
a Global Crisis
Sandra Gomes
9|14
Labour Demand Research: Towards a
Better Match Between Better Theory and
Better Data
John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal, José
Varejão
António Rua | Karsten Staehr
III