Workshop on Integrated Management of Micro-databases The Use of Micro Data to Develop Remaining Maturity Data for Debt Securities and Loans 21 June 2013 Kuniko Moriya Research and Statistics Department Bank of Japan kuniko.moriya@boj.or.jp Outline Introduction and Some Background Data Availability and Data Collection From Micro to Macro Data Issues with Micro Data Concluding Remarks 1 1 1. Introduction and Some Background The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is currently developing sectoral debt securities and loans with remaining maturity of short and long term to capture macro financial risks by different sectors in the economy. (a) G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI), recommendation #15, calls for developing data in common templates, which include debt securities and loans with remaining maturity of one year and less, and of more than a year. (b) IMF’s SDDS Plus requests to disseminate data for government debt with the same remaining maturities as DGI. Need more detailed data than current Japan’s Flow of Funds Accounts (J-FFA) , which comprehensively records financial assets and liabilities in matrices of 43 sectors and 51 financial transactions. Make the use of micro data of individual financial institutions. 2 2. Data Availability and Data Collection Macro data of debt securities and loans by remaining maturities currently in Japan are quite limited. A readily and publicly available macro data source is on the liabilities side as follows: (a) Macro Data from Japan Securities Depository Center (JASDEC), (b) “Debt Management Report (DMR)” by Ministry of Finance (MOF), (c) “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (FSSC)” by MOF. In contrast, on the assets side, have to rely on micro data, taking into account the reporting burden incurred by financial institutions: (a) Data required to disclose by regulations (e.g., Banking Act), (b) Data internally collected for their own purpose of risk management. Data Sources for Compiling Statistics Assets (holding) side Liabilities (issuance) side Debt securities Micro data of financial institutions JASDEC, MOF (DMR) Loans Micro data of financial institutions MOF (FSSC) 3 2 3. From Micro to Macro Data Compile micro data and calculate ratios between debt securities/loans with remaining maturity of one year and less (e.g., a/(a+b)), and of more than a year (e.g., b/(a+b)) for subsectors. Calculate macro data in subsectors by multiplying those ratios with amounts outstanding in corresponding sectors (e.g., F3 debt securities) in J-FFA. Derivation from J-FFA Data (Rec. #15 Template, partial) Non-Financial Financial General Rest of Households Corporations Corporations Government the World F1 Monetary gold and SDRs Data avairable in J-FFA F2 Currency and deposits Data avairable in J-FFA F3 Debt securities (D) Data avairable in J-FFA One year and less a/(a+b), calculated from micro data, times D More than a year b/(a+b), calculated from micro data, times D F4 Loans (L) Data avairable in J-FFA One year and less c/(c+d), calculated from micro data, times L More than a year d/(c+d), calculated from micro data, times L ・・ ・ ・・ ・ 4 3. From Micro to Macro Data (cont’d) On the assets side, for both debt securities and loans, estimate deposittaking corporations, insurance corporations, and public financial corporations. Data to Be Estimated (Assets Side) Total Economy Non-financial corporations Of which: Public non­ financial corporations Total S1 F1 Monetary gold and SDRs F11 Monetary gold F12 SDRs F2 Currency and deposits Of which: Domestic currency F21 Currency F22 Transferable deposits F221 Interbank positions F229 Other transferable deposits F29 Other deposits F3 Debt securities Of which: Domestic currency F31 Short-term F32 Long-term With remaining maturity of one year and less With remaining maturity of more than a year F4 Loans Of which: Domestic currency F41 Short-term F42 Long-term With remaining maturity of one year and less With remaining maturity of more than a year F5 Equity and investment fund shares F51 Equity F511 Listed shares F512 Unlisted shares F519 Other equity F52 Investment fund shares/units F521 Money market fund shares/units F522 Non MMF investment fund shares/units F6 Insurance, pension and standardized guarantee schemes F61 Non-life insurance technical reserves F62 Life insurance and annuity entitlements F63+F64+F65 Retirement entitlements F63 Pension entitlements F64 Claim of pension fund on pension managers F65 Entitlements to non­pension benefits F66 Provisions for calls under standarized guarantees F7 Financial derivatives and employee stock options F71 Financial derivatives F711 Options F712 Forwards F72 Employee stockoptions F8 Other accounts receivable/payable Of which: Domestic currency F81 Trade credits and advances F89 Other accounts receivable/payable S11 Total S11001 Debt Secrities by Remaining Maturity Loans by Remaining Maturity S12 Monetary financial institutions Central Other deposit- Moneybank taking market corporations funds Total S121+S122+ S123 S121 S122 S123 Financial corporations Insurance corp. and pension funds Insurance Pension corporations funds Total Total S128+S129 S124+S125+ S126+S127 S128 Deposit-taking Corporations S129 Other financial corporations Non­MMF Other financial Financial investment Intermediaries Auxiliaries funds except Insurance corporations and pension funds S124 S125 S126 Captive financial institutions and money lenders S127 Of which: Public financial corporations S12001 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Insurance Corporations S13 S1314 Households and NPISHs Households NPISH s Rest of the World Total S14+S15 S14 S15 S12 Public Financial Corporations Insurance Corporations ○ Deposit-taking Corporations General government Of which: Social Security Funds Total Public Financial Corporations 5 3 3. From Micro to Macro Data (cont’d) On the liabilities side, estimate all domestic sectors for debt securities, and non-financial corporations for loans. Data to Be Estimated (Liabilities Side) Total Economy Non-financial corporations Of which: Public non­ financial corporations Total S1 F1 Monetary gold and SDRs F11 Monetary gold F12 SDRs F2 Currency and deposits Of which: Domestic currency F21 Currency F22 Transferable deposits F221 Interbank positions F229 Other transferable deposits F29 Other deposits F3 Debt securities Of which: Domestic currency F31 Short-term F32 Long-term With remaining maturity of one year and less With remaining maturity of more than a year F4 Loans Of which: Domestic currency F41 Short-term F42 Long-term With remaining maturity of one year and less With remaining maturity of more than a year F5 Equity and investment fund shares F51 Equity F511 Listed shares F512 Unlisted shares F519 Other equity F52 Investment fund shares/units F521 Money market fund shares/units F522 Non MMF investment fund shares/units F6 Insurance, pension and standardized guarantee schemes F61 Non-life insurance technical reserves F62 Life insurance and annuity entitlements F63+F64+F65 Retirement entitlements F63 Pension entitlements F64 Claim of pension fund on pension managers F65 Entitlements to non­pension benefits F66 Provisions for calls under standarized guarantees F7 Financial derivatives and employee stock options F71 Financial derivatives F711 Options F712 Forwards F72 Employee stockoptions F8 Other accounts receivable/payable Of which: Domestic currency F81 Trade credits and advances F89 Other accounts receivable/payable S11 Total S11001 S12 Monetary financial institutions Central Other deposit- Moneybank taking market corporations funds Total S121+S122+ S123 Financial corporations Insurance corp. and pension funds Insurance Pension corporations funds Total S121 S122 S123 S128+S129 Total S128 S129 S124+S125+ S126+S127 Other financial corporations Non­MMF Other financial Financial investment Intermediaries Auxiliaries funds except Insurance corporations and pension funds S124 S125 S126 Captive financial institutions and money lenders S127 Of which: Public financial corporations S12001 General government Of which: Social Security Funds Total S13 S1314 Households and NPISHs Households NPISH s Rest of the World Total S14+S15 S14 S15 S12 Debt Secrities by Remaining Maturity ○ All Domestic Sectors ○ Loans by Remaining Maturity Non-financial Corporations 6 4. Issues with Micro Data Administrative costs to collect and process micro data. Apply imputation method, which uses ratios for certain components as substitute for corresponding sectors in J-FFA, when (a) micro data are not readily available, (b) costs of data collection outweigh benefits for corresponding sectors (e.g., foreign banks in Japan, of which amounts outstanding are small). Vary in calculating methods of “remaining maturity” data across individual institutions. In case where debt repaid with predetermined schedule over the course of borrowing period (“scheduled repayment”), when recording debt on their books, financial institutions could regard “remaining maturity” as either of the following: (a) “redemption at maturity,” (b) “scheduled repayment.” 7 4 4. Issues with Micro Data (cont’d) Illustrated Example of Different Calculations of Remaining Maturities (Face value: 100; Maturity: 5 years) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (Maturity end) 100 100 Redemption at maturity 80 Scheduled repayment 60 40 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 20 0 One year and less More than a year Different outcomes calculated for installment debt Redemption at maturity Scheduled repayment One year and less 0 20 More than a year 100 80 8 5. Concluding Remarks BOJ is currently in the midst of collecting data from financial institutions with publications projected early 2014. Recognize some specific issues in using micro data to develop macro data: (a) Projecting micro data into macro data, (b) Difficulties in standardizing data definition across individual reporting parties. Need to consider choices of micro data, as the reporting burden can be significant. BOJ continues to improve and develop financial statistics by weighting benefits for users and costs for reporting parties. Thank you! 9 5 (Reference) Documents of J-FFA Publications http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/sj/index.htm/ Explanations http:// www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/outline/exp/exsj01.htm/ http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/outline/exp/exsj02.htm/ Time-series data http://www.stat-search.boj.or.jp/en/index_en.html/ 10 6