Micro data based BOP data quality
management
Zsuzsanna Sisakné Fekete, Péter Bánhegyi (MNB)
Workshop on Integrated management of Micro-databases
20/22 June 2013 Porto
Hungarian Central Statistical Office
Outline
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The phenomenon
Globalization: the case of VAT registration
Value added recorded in but not belonging to resident economy
Correction in NA and BOP
Micro data based quality management
Trade balance revision and its effect on NEO in BOP
Revision in NA/BOP or Foreign Trade Statistic or both?
Macroeconomic statistical problems
Purposes
Outlook
The primary objective of the MNB shall be to achieve and maintain price
stability.
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Companies without physical existence
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Hungary joined to the European Union in 2004 and Intrastat
(information related to VAT register) reporting system was
introduced to capture the foreign trade transactions with the
European Union member countries, all companies with VAT
number have to report to Intrastat system.
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At the same time in the BOP statistics NEO increased and
turned to a negative trend.
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„New” companies without physical existence- only
registration in Hungary - are considered as non-residents.
VAT
The phenomenon- value added recorded in but
not belonging to resident economy
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Value added which is related to foreign enterprises registered
under Hungarian VAT and recorded in Hungary’s foreign trade
statistics, but which is not due to the residents of the
Hungarian economy according to the balance of payments or
the national accounts concepts.
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Hungarian corporations value added to be adjusted because
sales via VAT registration vis-a-vis non residents differ
significantly from the value reported by their resident partners.
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Correction in NA and BOP
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Hungarian companies have also VAT registrations in other EU
member states - Hungarian value added recorded in other
countries.
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In this latter case data sources are more complicated – resident
VAT declarations and foreign trade data do not contain this
value added.
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The objective of the correction is for the HCSO and MNB to
record value added which is related to foreign enterprises and
recorded in Hungary’s foreign trade statistics and vice versa.
The phenomenon
resident economy
non resident economy
resident value added
50
55
42
40
non resident value added
100
110
95
90
FTS= 8(50-42)+20(110-90)=28
NA/BOP=15(55-40)+5(100-95)=20
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Data sources for correction
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CSO: Foreign trade database (Intrastat, Extrastat)
Business Statistics
MAP of company relations
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NCB: BOP financial account and income
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Tax authority: VAT database
Annual tax report database ,
Micro-data based quality management
CSO
Register
Company level time
series
CSO BOP
DATA
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NCB Data
warehouse
Common
Register
NCB BOP
DATA
NCB
Securities
database
Tax
authority
data
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Trade balance revision in 2008 and its effect on NEO
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The HCSO and MNB first published first revisions of trade in
goods data related to VAT registration in Hungary in September
2008. At that time a macro-assessment procedure (trade
margin) was applied in goods.
In 2011 the revision was extended and it is made also on
company level.
• Revision and its effect on NEO in BOP
% of
GDP
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-0,5
-1,3
-1,9
-2,1
-2,1
-2,7
-3,5
-4,7
Linking problem: software costs - revision of NA /BOP
or Foreign Trade Statistics or both ?
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The price of goods exported, either through VAT registrations or
not, may include extra costs, belonging to foreign fellow
company. An example is software costs.
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How to estimated this software costs?
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How to adjust foreign trade data?
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Methodological treatment of goods including software.
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Hungarian case study for the UN Task Force on Global
Production
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Macroeconomic statistical problems
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Foreign trade statistics –data should be corrected for national
GDP and BOP purposes.
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Problem for analysts and policy makers – information are
available only t+72, and t+90 days.
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Macro level adjustment easy to forecast - but not enough
precise.
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Company level adjustment is not easy to forecast.
Purposes
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To ensure legal framework for enhanced micro data exchange
among NCB and CSO
New data sources to analyze the problem on micro level, use
data warehouse
techniques for analyzing company level
statistics
To have quick information about the new phenomenon- to avoid
long historical data revisions in the time series
Multinational enterprises establish affiliates and branches in
different countries using legal possibilities for their own
purposes. National statistical authorities collect data on their
operations only in the resident country although their
transaction cannot be understood without knowledge of their
overall activities.
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Outlook
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This phenomenon highlighted the importance of systematic data
quality management and the macro and micro level checking of
data consistencies between financial and non financial
accounts.
The need for more sophisticated use of statistical data
highlights the responsibility of statisticians of producing and at
the same time the use the comparable and well documented
methodology of data.
New Eurostat policy on business and trade statistics (FRIBS)
International trade package integrated business and foreign
trade statistics
Measuring Trade in Value Added ( OECD) Integrated data on
international trade and global value chains (GVC)
Thank you for your attention!
sisaknezs@mnb.hu
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and
do not necessarily represent official positions of the MNB.
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