Math and Medicine: Homework Assignment 2
Due on January 22
1. In the Kopelman paper, the mystery patient had three findings: Nonreactive PPD skin test,
Noncaseasting granulomas, Normal angiotensin-converting enzyme level.
a. Find the probability of TB if the angiotensin-converting enzyme level had not been
normal.
b. Find the therapeutic threshold in this case.
2. Using the simulation of the Kopelman paper on the website, and experiment with
a. The case in problem 1.
b. The prior probability that the patient has TB.
Do the results match what the mathematics says? Which would be easier to explain to the
average physician?