CICERO lunch seminar
The IPCC future:
Representative Concentrations
Pathways (RCP)
Asbjørn Aaheim
November 30th, 2011
Why new scenarios?
i.
More detailed information needed to run the current
generation of climate models
ii. Enable an explicit exploration of the impact of
different climate policies, and comparisons with nonclimate-policy scenarios
iii. Exploring the role of adaptation
iv.
Take full advantage of recent developments of integrated models
v.
Scenarios ought to better reflect policy alternatives: Max and min emission
paths, paths in between that distinguish policy alternatives, stabilization of
concentrations, declining concentrations, extended horizon
vi.
Extended applicability of scenarios
Main characteristics of RCPs
 Four marker scenarios named after radiative forcing at
stabilization (with exceptions)
 Detailed scenarios, including land use, to 2100 – general paths to
2300
 Each marker RCP produced by separate models
•
•
•
•
RCP3: IMAGE
RCP4.5: GCAM
RCP6: AIM
RCP8.5: MESSAGE
Unit
Population
World GDP
Primary energy
bill
1012 US$
EJ
2100
RCP3 RCP4.5 RCP6 RCP8.5
6.0
9.0
8.5
9.8
12.6
30
363
365
218
191
475
855
1150
830
1750
2000
Population, rather than economic development, drives energy use
Global emissions of carbon by RCP
35
30
25
PgC/year
20
AIM - RCP 6.0
MiniCAM - RCP 4.5
15
MESSAGE - RCP 8.5
IMAGE - RCP3-PD (2.6)
10
5
0
-5
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
1000
900
800
600
RCP3
500
RCP4.5
400
RCP6
300
RCP8.5
Nitrous oxide
200
100
30
0
25
Methane
20
TGN2O/yr
Tg CH4/yr
700
RCP3
15
RCP4.5
RCP6
10
5
0
RCP8.5
Quotas of constant annual, allowable CO2 emissions until 2100 in RCP 4.5
(approx 2.5 °C) with same total emissions (orange) and same contribution
to forcing in 2100 (yellow) by region. Percent of present emissions
250
Percent of present emissions
200
150
Emissions
Forcing
100
50
0
Asia
Kilde: RCP4.5
Latin Amerika
Middle East and
Africa
OECD
Economies in
transition
Preliminary climate scenarios: CMIP5 – a ”small” climate model
(Meinshausen 2010)
Year
2050
2100
2150
Stabilized
Low
1.8
3.6
4.8
5.8
RCP8.5
Most likely
2.1
4.7
6.5
8.0
Change in precipitation not available
High
3.0
6.5
8.6
>10
Low
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.1
RCP 4.5
Most likely
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.6
High
2.5
3.5
3.7
4.1
Global mean temperature in RCP4.5 – Max Planck Institute IMPLICC
16.5
16.3
16.1
15.9
15.7
15.5
15.3
15.1
14.9
14.7
dT (2006 – 2100): + 1.51; dT +2.41
2099
2096
2093
2090
2087
2084
2081
2078
2075
2072
2069
2066
2063
2060
2057
2054
2051
2048
2045
2042
2039
2036
2033
2030
2027
2024
2021
2018
2015
2012
2009
2006
14.5
A climate policy analysis: Costs and benefits
35
30
25
PgC/year
20
AIM - RCP 6.0
MiniCAM - RCP 4.5
15
MESSAGE - RCP 8.5
IMAGE - RCP3-PD (2.6)
10
5
0
-5
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Representation of impacts in GRACE
DEMAND
Primary
SUPPLY
Goods
Intermediate
Agric. Forestry ...
Electr. ...
Agriculture
Forestry
:
Fuels
Electr.
:
:
Services
Consump.
Export
Adjust energy use for heating and cooling
Tourism
Labour
Vector-born diseases
Capital
Damage from natural hazards
Nature
Services
Final
Investm.
Soil
productivity
Runoff
Primary resources (wealth)
Technology
Preferences
Distribution of income
Real flows
Financial flows
BNP etter region ved
RCP8.5
RCP4.5
10000
9000
8000
ASIA
7000
LAM
MAF
6000
OECD
REFE
5000
ASIA
4000
LAM
MAF
3000
OECD
REFE
2000
1000
0
200420052010201520202025203020352040204520502055206020652070207520802085209020952100
The storylines: Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)
Challenges to mitigation
Rich, equal
and resource
demanding
Cooperation,
equity and
development
Continuation
of current
dynamics
SSP3
SSP5
SSP2
SSP1
SSP4
The world of
the few,
cynical rich
Challenges to adaptation
Read more:
 Climatic Change special issue – online August 2011
 van Vuuren, D.P. et al. (2011): «A proposal for a new
scenario framwork to support research and
assessment in different climate research
communities», Global Environmental Change –
online
RCPs are found on

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about