Carbon emissions scenarios in Europe
based on a semi-endogenous growth
model
Anna Ciesielski and Richard Tol
September 10, 2013
Carbon emissions are a major force driving climate change. To gain an understanding of the prospective temperature increase, it is essential to anticipate
the amount of future carbon emissions. The aim of this work is to forecast carbon emissions from fossil energy until 2100 in Europe. Projections are based
on a semi-endogenous growth model calibrated to historical data on population and GDP since 1850. We aim at two intertwined elds of interest. First,
how strong is economic growth in Europe until 2100 and how does future economic activity translate into carbon emissions? Secondly, we show how regional
forecasts of future carbon emissions may change, when they are taken to the
country level. A variety of uncertainties is tied to climate change. For this
reason we provide condence intervals to give an intuition about the accuracy
of our forecasts. The emissions scenarios elaborated in this work are a stepping stone to further calculations regarding the temperature increase, damage
functions and the social cost of carbon.
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