Performance of WOFOST and DSSAT models in predicting effect of climate change on wheat
under different RCP emission pathways
The Field experiment was conducted at the Research Farm, Department of Climate Change and
Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana during Rabi season 2016-17. The
experiment consisted of three sowing dates (5th November (D1), 20th November (D2) and 5th December
(D3)) and two cultivars (PBW-725 and PBW-677). The data generated during the field experiment was
used for calibration and validation of the DSSAT and WOFOST model. The high resolution GCM data
for projected climate under four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) used to simulate effect of
climate change on wheat. The simulation result under projected climate change scenarios showed the
decreasing trend for days to anthesis (-2 to -12 days), maturity (-1 to -17 days) and grain yield (-2qha-1 to
-8qha-1) during 2021-80s period. The result showed the highest significant effect on days to anthesis (-7 to
-12 days), maturity (-11 to -17 days) and grain yield (-4qha-1 to -8 qha-1) on using RCP8.5 followed by
RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP2.6 in different future time periods. The higher temperature under the RCP8.5
scenario may resulted in more grain yield reduction as compare to other scenarios as the physiology of
crop adversely affected under high temperature condition. These finding may provide a useful insight into
potential effect of climate change on phenology and yield of wheat crop in 21st century and help the
researchers in planning appropriate mitigation techniques.
Keywords: Climate change, RCP scenarios, wheat, WOFOST and DSSAT models