Urban Evacuation to Rural
Areas - Planning for
Population Surge
Michael Meit, M.A., M.P.H
NORC at the University of Chicago
Project Overview – Partners
• NORC is a subcontractor for the
Western New York Public Health
Alliance (WNYPHA), which is funded
by an Advance Practice Centers grant
from NACCHO and CDC
• NORC has partnered with the Penn
State University Center for
Environmental Informatics to develop a
map-based online modeling tool
2
Co-Authors
From NORC:
• Thomas Briggs, Alene Kennedy, and
Hiroaki Minato, M.A. Ph.D. Cand.
From PSU:
• Stephen Crawford and Douglas Miller,
Ph.D.
3
Walsh Center for Rural Health
Analysis Evacuation Project
• Funded by HRSA, Office of Rural
Health Policy
– Key informant interviews
– National survey of urban residents to
assess evacuation intentions
– Findings to inform development of the
modeling and spatial analysis tool
4
Background
• To date, rural preparedness risk assessments have
tended to focus on issues within the rural community
and have not examined the implications of
population surge resulting from evacuating residents
from neighboring urban areas. In many areas, rural
public health infrastructure is likely to be stretched
thin or possibly overwhelmed in such a scenario.
• At the same time, evacuation planning research has
focused primarily on the successful exodus of urban
citizens following a disaster situation, with little focus
on likely destinations or secondary impacts.
5
Purpose
• The objective of this project is to develop a mapbased tool to predict rural population surge
following potential urban disasters. We envision
the final product being used as a planning tool
for rural preparedness planners, and as an
educational tool to inform policy makers about
the issue of urban to rural evacuation.
• The tool includes information on the number of
likely evacuees, evacuee demographic
information (such as presence of children,
disability status, etc.), and local planning
information.
6
Methods
–
–
–
Identified variables predictive of urban to rural
evacuation based upon historical evidence and key
informant interviews with preparedness experts at in
rural and urban communities and national authorities
Developed modeling algorithms using identified
variables based upon availability of nationwide data
sets containing county-level information
Worked with Penn State University’s Center for
Environmental Informatics to develop a web-based
interface that provides access to evacuation
information in a user-friendly manner.
7
How the tool works – 3 types of
variables
Scenario Specific Variables:
•
Based on the nature of the precipitating event – how much
“push” does it have, and how many urban citizens are likely
to evacuate as a result?
•
Current scenarios: dirty bomb, pandemic flu,
industrial/chemical
Population Demographics:
•
Based on the demographics of the urban area, who is more
or less likely to evacuate? For example, people with children
are more likely to evacuate; people with disabilities are less
likely to evacuate, etc.
Pull Variables:
•
Based on known information about counties surrounding the
urban area, which will be more or less attractive to
evacuees? Features that make a county more attractive
include things such as road networks into the county, number
of hotel rooms and second homes, family networks, etc.
8
Population Demographics and
Pull Variables
Setting variables:
• Historical studies (e.g. TMI, hurricanes)
• Survey research
• Expert opinion
Data sources:
• U.S. Census Bureau
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Smith Travel Research
9
By clicking on the
circle, the user can
select the city and
region of interest. In
this iteration of the
tool, we see Buffalo.
10
The model zooms
into the selected city
and surrounding
counties.
11
By checking the boxes, the user
can see more detailed information
about the region of interest, such
as hospital locations and data.
12
The user can select the
The user of
can
select from
the
scenario
interest
scenario
of interest
a drop-down
menu.from
The
a user
drop-down
menu.
The
also may
select
to
user
also
may
select
to
view
one
wave
of an
view
one wave
of an
evacuation
or more.
evacuation or more.
13
By left-clicking on the county, the user can access
detailed information about the destination county’s
resources and the arriving evacuees.
14
Next steps
National Expansion
• The tool will be expanded nationally, to include at
least the 100 largest urban centers in the U.S. and
surrounding counties within at least a 150-mile
radius.
Refining Algorithms and Variables
• We will continue to refine algorithms and identify
variables for enhanced precision of estimates.
User Testing
• We will conduct web-based user testing to refine the
user interface and produce optimal outputs to
stimulate rural preparedness planning.
15
For more information:
Michael Meit, MA, MPH
Senior Research Scientist
NORC at the University of Chicago
7500 Old Georgetown Road, Ste 620
Bethesda, MD 20814
PH:
301-951-5076
Email: meit-michael@norc.org