Impacts 2050
NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6:
Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—
The Effects of Socio-demographics
on Future Travel Demand
The total number of miles driven in the US peaked in 2006 at 2.647 trillion.
In 2011, the total number of miles driven was 5% lower. Miles driven per person and
per vehicle peaked in 2004, and by 2011 had dropped by nearly 9% and 5%, respectively.
(UMTRI-2013-20 July 2013)
2
As models are run further into future,
precision becomes challenging
Uncertainty in
exogenous inputs
Uncertainty in
model relationships
Time
Variety of relationships
that could be important
3
Driving Uncertainty
1. The next 100 million
2. The graying of America
3. The browning of America
4. The changing American workforce
5. The blurring of city and suburb
6. Slow growth in households
7. The Generation C
8. The salience of environmental concerns
4
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

US population growing at higher
rate than rest of world’s developed
nations

Growth rate is slowing, but to what
degree

Increase in total vehicle miles
traveled (VMT)
Projections of the Total Population
for the U.S.: 2010-2050 (millions)
310,233
2010
341,387
2020
373,504
2030
405,655
2040
439,100
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “The Next Four Decades, The Older Population in
the U.S. 2010-2050.” Population Estimates and projections, P25-1138,
May 2010, pg.1. A http///www.census.gov/prod/2010publs/p2501138.pdf
5
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties


Significant increase in population
age 65+ due to Baby Boomers
How will Baby Boomers travel
patterns change
Decrease in VMT per capita
– Decrease in work trips
– Decrease in transit use
50
43
45
40
40
30
25
39
37
34
35
Percent

Percent of U.S. Population by
Age Group, 1990-2010
31
26 26
1990
24
2000
20
2010
15
10
5
0
Less than 18
18 to 44
45 and older
– Decrease in vehicle ownership
Source: Brownell, Peter, Thomas Light, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras,
Nidhi Kalra, and Jan Osburg. 2013. The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for the
United States in 2030, Appendixes C–G. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246
6
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties


Population by Race and Ethnicity
(% of Total)
White, non-Hispanic share of
US population declining
Majority of America’s children
are of color
– Increase in VMT per capita
– Increase carpooling, walking,
public transit use
– Increase in vehicle age
– Travel behavior as people
acculturate or are new mainstream
– Future foreign-born percent
12
5
9
Projected
13
17
2011
47
63
2050
29
White
Hispanic
Black
Asian
11 0.6
3.5
85
1960
Note: All races are non-Hispanic; American Indian/Alaska Native not shown.
Source: Passel, J., and D’V. Cohn. February 2008. U.S. Population Projections:
2005–2050. Pew Research Center, Washington, DC.
http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85/pdf; Census Bureau 2011 population estimates.
7
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

Civilian Labor Force by Age
(Millions)
Workforce is growing older and
more diverse
120,000

Labor-force participation rate
declining
– Decrease in VMT per capita
– Increase in work-related VMT
– Long-term effects of recession,
technology on productivity,
Hispanics on labor participation rate
Thousands
100,000
1992
2002
80,000
2012
60,000
2022
40,000
20,000
0
16 to 24
25 to 54
55 and older
Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review, December 2013;
Toossi, M. December 2013. “Labor Force Projections to 2022:
The Labor Force Participation Rate Continues to Fall.” Monthly Labor
Review. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/pdf/labor-force-projectionsto-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.pdf
8
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

Both cities and suburbs home to
employers and residences

Inner-ring suburbs having
density changes similar
to center city
– Decrease in VMT per capita
– Increase in non-motorized trips
– Increase in transit trips
– Long-term demand for
suburban urbanity
Map by Zara Matheson, Martin Prosperity Institute
Data Source:
http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/1128_walkableurbanisim_leinberger.aspx
9
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

Marriage rates are declining,
depressing household formation
and households with children

Increasing numbers of Americans
are living in someone else’s home

Influence of economic recession
and Millennial lifestage

Decrease in VMT per capita
– Decrease in auto ownership
– Increase in car pooling
– Increase in transit use
10
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

Demand for connected
devices

Gen C = hyperlinked

Super-Cs spent entire lives
with digital devices
– Decrease in VMT per capita
– Decrease in auto ownership
– What will be transportation
needs and expectations of
Super-Cs?
11
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties

Stronger sense of concern for
environment among Millennials
than other generations

Influence of Millennial’s lifestage

Decrease in VMT per capita
Trends in Per-Capita VehicleMiles Traveled and Real Gross
Domestic Product
– Decrease in auto ownership
– Increase non-motorized mode use
– Increase in transit use
Vehicle-miles traveled: see note 2; population statistics: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Population Estimates, downloaded from www.census.gov/
popest/data/historical/index.html (for 1970-2011), and U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States,2003, Table HS-1 (1936-1969);
gross domestic product (chained 2005 dollars): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,Current-Dollar and “Real” Gross Domestic Product (Excel spreadsheet),
29 November 2012.
12
…of these Trends on Future Travel Demand?
Conflicting
Evolving
Incomplete
13

Tool for applying scenario approach for handling
uncertainty
– 4 Scenarios for visioning the future
– System dynamics model that represents links between
population, land use, employment, and travel behavior

Enables users to:
– Examine socio-demographic trends and impact on travel demand
– Be in position to account for these trends in forecasts and plans
– Examine policy or other interventions that might offset trends
14
Momentum
Tech Triumphs
Global Chaos
State of the
country in 2050
is recognizable
to any planner
who had worked
in 2010.
By 2050,
technological
innovations
have changed
how we travel,
connect our
world, and
reduce our
carbon footprint.
The world is a
more difficult
place to live in
2050 with
growing financial
instability, and
insecurity over
food, jobs, oil.
Gentle
Footprint
Recovering from
droughts and
superstorms ,
the US has taken
significant and
serious action to
mitigate global
climate change.
15
16
17
18
Population by Age Group
Year
Population
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
4,247,982
5,615,248
6,865,803
8,097723
9,319,548
10,562,745
3,000,000
2,500,000
Age 0-15
Age 16-29
2,000,000
Age 30-44
1,500,000
Age 45-59
Age 60-74
1,000,000
Age 75+up
500,000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
19
Daily Work Trips by Mode
3,500,000
3,000,000
CarDriverWorkTrips
2,500,000
CarPassengerWorkTrips
2,000,000
TransitWorkTrips
1,500,000
WalkBikeWorkTrips
1,000,000
500,000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
20
Population by Age Group
Year
Population
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
4,247,982
5,615,248
6,667,274
7,517,999
8,222.798
8,711,951
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
Age 0-15
1,400,000
Age 16-29
1,200,000
Age 30-44
1,000,000
Age 45-59
800,000
Age 60-74
600,000
Age 75+up
400,000
200,000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
21
Daily Work Trips by Mode
2,500,000
2,000,000
CarDriverWorkTrips
CarPassengerWorkTrips
1,500,000
TransitWorkTrips
1,000,000
WalkBikeWorkTrips
500,000
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
22
Socio-Demographic
Trends
4 Scenarios
Better Insights
Will surely impact travel demand
over the next 50 years.
Applied in a systems approach to
test out socio-demographic shifts
and explore what if situations
New and Quick insights on future
reality
Future SocioDemographic
Uncertainties
Impacts 2050
Tool
Better
Decisions
23

Study products prompt change in thinking

Output is less important than process of interacting
with model

Future reality is better understood by exploring
multiple plausible future scenarios

Shift to thinking strategically which is more aligned
with 21st century types of problems and environments
24

Full Report
(NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—
The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand)

Research Brief

Impacts 2050 Tool

Impacts 2050 User Guide
25