When planning isn’t enough:
transportation governance and global warming
Deb Niemeier
Professor, Dept of Civil and Environmental Eng.
The University of California, Davis
Dept of Civil and Environment Engineering
U.S.
Australia
S. Arabia
Spain
U.K.
France
Japan
S. Korea
Venezuela
Russia
Malaysia
Mexico
South Africa
Thailand
Brazil
Indonesia
China
India
6.2MT per person
Transportation
0.3MT per person
World Resources Institute
CA Climate Change Challenge
AB 32: 1990 by 2020
EO: 80%<1990 by 2050
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
GHG Emissions over Time
3
GHG Emissions (Transport+Residential)
6.5 MT
4.8 MT
0.7 MT
Population
Current
2020
AB 32
(1990 by 2020)
2050
S-3-05
(80%<1990)
4
Veh Miles Travel Projections (2005)
1.70
System
VMT
1.60
Pop
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0.90
0.80
U.S.VMT
CA VMT
0.70
5
Sacramento Council
of Governments
(SACOG)
6
Continuing Current
Growth Patterns (2050)
• Between 2000 and 2050,
adding more than 1.7m
people, 1m jobs
• Projected worsening of
congestion of more than 50%
by 2025
• Serious air quality issues
7
Smart Growth Principles
Housing Choices
Existing Assets
Compact Dev
Mixed Use
Quality Housing
Transport Choices
Conservation
Collaborative Visioning Process
“The Blueprint”
9
The “Choices”
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Continuation
Of Current
Growth Patterns
Allowed Most
Growth on
the Fringe
Growth in
the Suburbs
but “smart”
Emphasis on
More Building in
Urbanized Areas
1%
10%
55%
34%
Where the
new growth goes
11
Blueprint Performance
More people closer to jobs
VMT/household drops from 47mi to 35
Households drive less
SACOG, Special report, Preferred Blueprint Alternative
12
Current
Growth Patterns (2050)
The Blueprint (2050)
Areas of existing development
Areas of future development
13
Awards
• One of the top “50” programs in Harvard’s “Innovations in
American Government Competition”
• Gov’s award for Environmental and Economic Leadership
• FHWA Transportation Planning Excellence Award
• American Institute of Architects CA Chapter President’s
Award
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—National Award for
Smart Growth Achievement
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—National Award for
Smart Growth Achievement
14
Truthiness, n: the quality of stating concepts one
wishes or believes to be true, rather than the facts
John Colbert (2006)
15
The SACOG Region VMT
Move 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%
of the planned rural growth to
urban…
Finally, 100% of
the planned
rural growth to
urban…
16
Are Land Use Changes
Enough for CA to Reduce VMT?
• Multivariate two-part model with instrumental variables
• Correcting for self-selection bias
• Zero car travel
• One of the largest datasets ever used
• All CA and enough of a sample at the county level
Importantly, we had derived the elasticity of vmt with respect x
David Heres-Del-Valle, Deb Niemeier, CO2 emissions: Are land-use changes enough for California to reduce VMT?
Specification of a two-part model with instrumental variables (2010) Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,
The SACOG Region VMT
Move 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%
of the planned rural growth to
urban…
Finally, 100% of
the planned
rural growth to
urban…
9.0
Total GHG (MMT)
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
18
back
The “Choices”
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Continuation
Of Current
More Sprawl
Growth Patterns
Allowed Most
Growth
on
Status Quo
the Fringe
Growth in
the Suburbs
Compromise
but “smart”
More on
Emphasis
More
Building in
Congestion
Urbanized Areas
Niemeier, D., R. Grattet, T. Beamish (forthcoming) Blueprinting for Climate Change? When Promise of Regional Transportation and Land Use
Planning Outruns Performance Outcomes, Environment & Planning C: Government & Policy.
Blueprint Outcome
Missing Piece
3.3
8.9
3.1
8.1
2.8
2008
2020
2035
Per Capita GHG (MT)
7.5
2008
2020
2035
Total GHG (MMT)
Niemeier, D., R. Grattet, T. Beamish (forthcoming) Blueprinting for Climate Change? When Promise of Regional Transportation and Land Use
Planning Outruns Performance Outcomes, Environment & Planning C: Government & Policy.
20
Fundamental Issue: Policy Alignment
Targets
• Blueprinting governance
• Citizen planning
• Blueprinting performance
• Land Planning/Urban sprawl
• Air quality
• CO2
Misalignment
• Peripheral regulatory body
• Limited options
• Limited incentives
• Limited enforcement power
• Constrained mandate
Thank you
Acknowledgements
Tom Beamish, Professor, Sociology, UC Davis
Ryken Grattet, Professor, Sociology, UC Davis
Alex Karner, Ph.D. Asst Professor, Georgia Tech
SB 375
Mandates a regional GHG emissions target
at the metropolitan planning level
23
But Total GHG Inc. by More than 20%
2050
2020
24
The Road From Current to Blueprint…
The
Metropolitan
Transportation
Plan (MTP)
(2035)
Now
2050
“[The Blueprint Process was designed] to produce a vision for the
region that had sufficient technical grounding and political support
to serve as the basis for SACOG’s next Metropolitan Transportation
Plan.” (McKeever, pg 4, 2009)
Regional
Population Allocation
Whispering… is the only mode of articulated aspiration
*
SACOG Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP 2035)
Yuba
Yolo
3% 9%
8%
5%
El Dorado
7%
8%
4%
15%
Sutter
Placer
17%
4%
59%
62%
Sacramento
2005
2035
*James, Rush (1833) The Philosophy of the Human Voice
Decisions Are Made Locally
Blueprint, voluntary framework to reduce …sprawl
The Blueprint is threatened at its southern boundaries
Elk Grove to expand 27,000 acres to 37,500 acres
No danger of exceeding Blueprint projections… expansion unnecessary
…….Sac County likely to accept new boundaries (May meeting)
27
28
Share of the Regional Population
29
Placerville-rural
1.5 du/ac
El Dorado County VMT
2.5 du/ac
3.6 du/ac
4.5 du/ac
urban
rural
Pop (2005): 154,486
To create scenarios:
Take some of the pop.
Growth in the rural and
put it in the incorp area
(constrain the
boundaries)
8.4 du/ac
Per Capital versus Total Emissions
31
VMT per Capita Trends
34.0
32.0
30.0
28.0
26.0
VMT (BAU)
24.0
4% (5MMT)
8%
22.0
20.0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
32
CO2 (MT) Trends
300
BAU
250
4% (10-20); 8% (20-30)
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
33
CO2 (MT) Trends
300
BAU
250
200
4% (10-20); 8% (20-30)
Pavley, LCFS
150
100
50
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
34
CO2 (MT) Trends
300
BAU
250
200
4% (10-20); 8% (20-30)
Pavley, LCFS
150
100
100% ZEV Sales
50
Target
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
35
Consistent with EU
EU overall emissions against
transport (1990=100)
Total cumulative
GHG emissions
2010-2050
BAU
Decarbonized carriers
+ vehicle energy eff.
+ structural eff.
+ economic instr.
Skinner I, van Essen H, Smokers R and Hill N (2010) Towards the decarbonisation of EU’s transport sector by 2050 Final report produced under the contract
ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053 between European Commission Directorate-General Environment and AEA Technology plc; see www.eutransportghg2050.eu
36
Take Aways
next
•
Blueprinting is useful, but not the right vehicle to initiate
real change
•
Blueprinting is not regional – in the SACOG case, it was 6
separate counties blueprinting their future and then a
weaving in of those aspirations –
•
BUT, in the end, decisions centered on obvious choices
•
State to regional to local actions dilute responsibility; no
link to accountability
•
Our path to total transportation GHG reductions (in the
20-30 yr horizon) depends on eliminating growth outside
the major cities
37
Admin
Alt.
LScape
Capacity
Mixed
Flow
Capacity
Rehab
Traffic
Ops
Transit
38
Other steps
• Adding in fiscal elements (e.g., schools)
• Reconceptualizing local govt’s role
• Modifying CEQA regs
• Bringing in EJ aspects
39