After 2020: Opportunities
and Challenges for All
Independent Energy Producers Annual Meeting
September 26, 2013
Nancy E. Ryan
Director of Policy and Strategy, E3
California Policymakers are
Starting to Look Beyond 2020
CPUC is
interested in
evaluating
electricity
sector GHG
reduction
options and
costs in 2030
CARB 2013
Update to AB
32 Scoping
Plan
•
Progress on
2020 GHG goals
•
Possibly a 2030
target
•
Integrate air
quality and
climate policy
CEC’s 2013
Integrated
Energy Policy
Report
(IEPR)
•
“Evaluation of
electricity
system needs
in 2030”
workshop &
modeling
California
legislators:
•
Proposed bill
for 51% RPS
by 2030
surfaced
•
Quirk bill on
Road to 2050
2
Science Paper on 2050 Pathways:
Framework for Setting 2030 Goals
3
Low Carbon Path Beyond 2020
Source: “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts
by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity,” Williams et al, Science (2012)
E3 Examining Potential Interim Targets
and Pathways to Reach Them
700
Business as usual projection
Million metric tonnes CO2e
600
500
400
Electricity
2020 Goal
425 MMT
Target Range
300
2030 Straight Line Path
315 MMT
Transportation
200
100
Industry
2050 Goal
85 MMT
0
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
5
6
Williams et al, 2012
Electrification & Energy Efficiency
Electrification
600
Energy
Efficiency
GWh
500
PV
Roofs
563
452
400
300
272
200
152
100
0
2010
Electric
Demand
2050
Baseline
Electric
Demand
Building
EE
PV
Industrial
Roofs
Ag &
Other EE
2050
Electric
Demand
net of
EE/PV
Building Industrial Transport 2050
Elect.
Decarb.
Ag &
EVs
Eelctric
Other
Demand
Elect.
Williams et al, 2012, SOM
7
California is Clearly Heading Down
the Renewable Electricity Pathway
State law prohibits construction of new nuclear
facilities until the federal government has
designated a permanent nuclear waste repository
• San Onofre Generating Station has closed permanently
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has not
developed as quickly as hoped
• No commercial projects in service
• Proposed projects and are struggling to make it to the finish
line due to cost overruns, political opposition, low gas prices
Should California invest in preserving other
options?
8
Renewable Resource Costs
Continue to Decline
Source: “Tracking the
Sun VI” Barbose et al,
LBNL, 2013
9
Integration Challenges are
Magnified Above 33%
Higher amounts of solar leads to
too much generation vs. too little
demand in middle of day
10
What does all of this mean for me?
11
Thank You!
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3)
101 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600
San Francisco, CA 94104
Tel 415-391-5100
Web http://www.ethree.com
Nancy E. Ryan, Director of Policy and Strategy
(nancy@ethree.com)