Energy 2050
The Future of Alternative
Transportation Fuels
(Response)
Carolyn Fischer
Resources for the Future
By 2025
• VMT will double
– Large growth in oil demand and emissions
• Hydrogen-fueled vehicles may be 10% of the
market if diffusion is rapid
• Fast transition will be challenging, costly.
– Should we wait longer or push forward?
• How costly and effective are the alternatives?
– What should we do in the meantime to address oil
security and climate change?
Equivalent intermediate actions
• 10% penetration of hydrogen vehicles
• 10% improvement in conventional fuel
economy
• 10% use of biofuels
• 10% displacement by transit
• 35% market penetration of hybrids
• Modest mix of the above
What policies can get us there?
Policies / Direct Buy fuel Reduce
Effects efficient VMT
vehicles
Use
Adopt new Reduce GHG
Mass
technology
Transit
Oil tax
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
From oil
conservation
GHG permit
price
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Fuel economy
regulation
Yes
No
No
If helps
meet regs
From oil
conservation
Alt fuels subsidy
Only
AFV
Yes
If renewable
Mass transit
subsidy
Hydrogen car
subsidy
Yes
Only
HFV
Yes
From VMT
reduction
Yes
If hydrogen derived
w/o emissions
What policies are out there?
• Federal
–
–
–
–
CAFE;
Gas tax for highway fund;
Tax credits / deductions for AFV, refueling stations;
R&D, partnerships
• States
– Tax credits, rebates, grants, sales tax exemptions, lowinterest loans for AFV, renewable fuels
– HOV exemptions for AFV
– Market share mandates
– Emerging technology manufacturers incentives
– Fuel cell partnership
Beyond 2025
• Vehicle stocks and infrastructure depreciate.
How should we be replacing them?
• If we were to start over, what fuels (and
vehicles) would we choose?
– Production and distribution cost
– Supply security, price volatility
– Environmental effects of production,
distribution, use, and disposal
– Safety
Policy Questions
• What kind of transportation infrastructure
will we want?
• How quickly do we want to get there?
• How cost-effective are the alternatives
toward achieving some of those goals in the
meantime?
• What is the Federal role for developing
incentives to achieve those goals and for
supporting new technologies?