Transport - Move towards
sustainability
S. Sundar
Distinguished Fellow, TERI
HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University,
5th Feb 2014
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Key trends: Growth in freight
traffic
% Share (NTKM)*
Road = 50.12%
Rail = 36.06%
Coastal
shipping = 6.8%
Pipeline = 7.48%
IWT = 0.24%
Airways = 0.02%
 Continuous erosion in the share of Railways in freight movement and increase in share of less fuel
efficient road transport
 Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport with over 50% of the freight
 Length of cross-country crude oil pipelines in India : 5889 km(2010)
 Total product pipelines (including LPG pipelines) - 12 925 km, with a capacity of 72 MT
*Modal
share in total freight traffic as of 2007-08, source: RITES Total Transport Study;
and RITES Total Transport Study
#Compiled
from
11th
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Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport
Key trends: Growth in
passenger traffic
% Share (BPKM)*
Road = 86.7%
Rail = 12.9%
Air= 0.4%

Substantial shift from rail to road
 Rail dominates long-haul
 Road dominates short-haul
Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport. Almost 90% passengers moved by road
in 2010-11
Air based passenger transport has seen a rapid growth in the last decade


share in total passenger traffic as of 2007-08 compiled from 11th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and Statistical Summary –
Indian Railways
*Modal
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BAU passenger growth trends
expected to continue in future
• Rapid increase in passenger
transport demand expected
2010 to 2030
3 times increase
2010 to 2050
7 times increase
70%
• Road sector’s dominance to
continue in BAU
80%
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Source: Estimates by TERI (2009)
Urban Transport
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Current Scenario–Urban
Transport
Population growth and rapid urbanization;
more and bigger cities
38% of India’s total population to live in cities by 2025
53 million plus cities now; 85 million plus cities by
2025 and 125 by 2050. Most million plus cities are
urban sprawls leading to increase in travel demand
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Declining share of public transport
 Public transport accounts for 30-55% in the four large
metropolis
 Public transport share in cities having a population of
more than 0.8 million was in the range of 60% to 80% in
1994; this has now declined to 35% to 55%
 Arrest the decline in public transport and increase its
share to 50%
 Introduce public transport in second-order cities
 Promote informal transport
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Non-motorised transport also
declining
 Lack of infrastructure for non-motorized transport and the increasing
trip lengths due to the horizontal expansion of cities have affected
pedestrians, cyclists and other non-motorized transport users in cities
 Share of NMT, though high in cities, is declining as cities grow
 Maintain and increase the share of NMT
Mode share in Indian cities
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Rapid motorization
About 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 35 million +cities
Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population
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Energy implications
 The transport sector accounted for 27% (98 mtoe), next only to industry
sector, of the total commercial energy consumed in the country*
 The transport sector had the largest share in consumption of diesel
(~70%) and petrol (~95%)#
 Petrol and diesel constitute 20% and 78%, respectively of the fuel
consumed by the transport sector; the remaining 2% consists of CNG,
LPG, and electricity
 In a BAU scenario, energy consumption is likely to increase by 6 times
by 2050; dominated by road transport
 Current imports of about 85% of 204 MT of crude oil processed in the
country would increase to 90% of 757 mtoe by 2030, compromising
India’s energy security
Sources: TERI estimates (2013);
#Report of the Expert Group to Advise on Pricing Methodology of Regulated Petroleum Products (2013)
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Is the current scenario
sustainable?
Current scenario:
 Lack of an integrated policy, targets and strategy to place
transport on a low carbon path
 Fragmented responsibility
 Lack of inter-modal connectivity and seamless movement
 Policies favour the personal automobile
 Cities spend more on infrastructure expansion- creating
more space for cars- flyovers, parking lots, expressways,
etc.
 Price distortions and fuel adulteration
Has led to uni-modal growth with excessive
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dependence on road transport
Lack of effective emission
regulation
–
Lack of a formal fuel quality or emissions road map beyond
2010 for new vehicles
–
New Auto Fuel Policy Committee set up in 2013 to draw up
roadmap up to 2025. The Committee is yet to submit its
report
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Different standards – one
country
 One set of standards for air quality across the country
 Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for
20 cities and rest of the country
 Many other cities are more polluted than the ones
where better quality fuel is presently supplied
 Dual standards effectively treat the majority of the
citizens in the country as second class citizens
 Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities need to
fill inferior quality fuel with consequences
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For New Vehicles
Introduce
better quality fuels and emission
standards –
EURO IV across the country by 2015,
EURO V by 2017 and
EURO VI by 2019
Move from Indian Driving Cycle towards
World Harmonised Test Cycles
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Move from Indian driving cycle to
World Harmonized Test Cycles
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And for inuse vehicles
 PUC totally unsatisfactory
–
Poor compliance
– Equipment not properly calibrated
– Operators not trained
– Integrity of testing in doubt
 Strengthen existing I&M system for all vehicles,
especially for trucks , buses and 3 wheelers
 Introduce in-use vehicle management systems based on
random COP testing and deterioration factors together
with a recall policy
 Move to annual re-registration of private vehicles
Current regulations require private vehicles to re-register after a
period of 15 years
Formulate a policy for fleet modernization to benefit
from better fuels
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The sustainable approach
Avoid…the need to travel
Shift…to sustainable modes
Improve…systems, technology and fuels
Approach particularly important for
urban areas
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Avoid
Reduce
number of trips or at least rate of growth of number of
trips
Reduce length of trips
Two key instruments to do this:
Integration
of land use and transport in new developments and
retrofitting existing developments
 Use of information technology (IT) as a substitute for physical
mobility – tele-/e-work and flexi-work hours, egovernance/shopping/education, etc.
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Shift
Shift
from personal vehicles to public transport and non-motorized
modes
 Prevent shift from NMT and public transport (PT)
Instruments:
Encourage
and facilitate NMT with appropriate policies and infrastructure
provision
 Introduce/enhance public transport capacity as appropriate
Regulate/rationalise para transit to supplement PT
Introduce in parallel measures to discourage the routine use and
ownership of personal vehicles
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Improve
Promote
efficient and clean vehicles and fuels
Improve
traffic flow, driver behavior,road conditions etc
Establish robust inspection and maintenance regimes for all
vehicles, with priority for trucks and buses
Move towards a world harmonized testing cycle for Type
Approval testing
Encourage the use of alternate fuels and accelerate
introduction of e-vehicles and solar charging
Introduce intelligent transport systems to reduce congestion and
facilitate smooth flow of traffic
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Issues in governance
 ASI interventions call for close collaboration between
Centre and States
 States have a major role in Avoid and Shift and also in
emission control and air quality management
 Section 7 of the Air Act empowers a state to prescribe
tighter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards- states
should examine the need for more stringent standards in
heavily polluted cities
 Need unified agencies for transport at national, state and
urban level
– All matters pertaining to transport should come under a single umbrella
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Thank you
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