Research Brief Development of a cross-industry business case and spectrum valuation for wireless telecommunication T911 - September 2010 Background The Department for Transport (DfT) Rail Technical Strategy sets out a vision of intelligent trains operating on intelligent infrastructure. In support of this there is an expectation that there will be major development and greater application of existing and future communication and positioning systems. When this research was commissioned Ofcom was planning to auction parcels of the spectrum around 900MHz, adjacent to the GSM-R band and of benefit to the rail industry. Results from the recent RSSB-managed research T795 Proof of concept trial demonstrating 900 MHz wireless Internet protocol connectivity determined the technical potential to build upon the current GSMR network to utilise these frequency bands to facilitate the introduction of broadband IP-based communications between trains and wider rail industry systems, but did not conduct any economic evaluation. This research project therefore set out to identify the value of this additional spectrum to the rail industry in support of future decisions on bidding for the frequency bands. Owing to their commercial nature, the results of the cross-industry business case and spectrum valuation are not publicly available; but by conducting the research the rail industry was well positioned to respond to the Ofcom 2009 consultation on the proposed auctioning of the spectrum. Additionally, the research has produced a number of observations and lessons learnt that are detailed below and will be taken forward by the industry as best practice guidance for future crossindustry opportunities and business case developments. Aims RSSB R&D Programme Block 2 Angel Square 1 Torrens Street London EC1V 1NY On behalf of the Future Communications and Positioning Systems Advisory Group (FC&PS AG), a sub-group of the Vehicle/Train Control and Communications System Interface Committee (VTC&C SIC), and the Technical Strategy Advisory Group (TSAG), the aim of this research project was to enable informed decisions to be taken by the DfT, Network Rail (NR) and research@rssb.co.uk www.rssb.co.uk/research/pages/ default.aspx 1 Development of a cross-industry business case and spectrum valuation for wireless telecommunication T911 - September 2010 Great Britain's rail industry in response to the forthcoming Ofcom auction. In addressing this aim, the FC&PS AG identified a series of objectives for this research. These were: Preparation of a cross-industry business case that would examine the opportunity for a mobile broadband data service for operational applications. Provide a valuation for the GB rail industry of a spectrum band planned to be offered to the market by Ofcom. Enable an informed decision to be taken by the DfT, NR, and Great Britain's rail industry in considering a potential bid. Development and dissemination of best practice guidance for future cross-industry opportunities. Method The approach to addressing the aims and objectives of this research was to investigate the costs and benefits of providing mobile broadband data services to support operational applications, followed by the development of a business case to enable the rail industry to ascribe a potential value of this particular parcel of spectrum. Potential applications that could use a mobile broadband capability were identified from both concurrent RSSB-managed research T809 Development of a communications and positioning technology roadmap and action plan for GB railways and T817 Assessing the bandwidth demand for future communications needs, and from a series of interviews with key industry stakeholders including Network Rail, passenger and freight operating companies (TOCs and FOCs), the ROSCOs, and the rolling stock manufacturers. This demand analysis helped to identify a range of possible incremental benefits to the industry from a mobile broadband service. The benefits were then quantified based on stakeholder input at a workshop, discussion with industry economists, and a review of rail industry reference material. The benefits were set against the forecast costs of implementing and running the service, to create the business case. This included tasks such as assessing coverage analysis and alternatives sources for bandwidth/services. A range of potential values to the rail industry of the additional 900MHz spectrum bands was then prepared by comparing the business case valuation with the UK market valuations of similar spectrum parcels. 2 RSSB Figure 1 - An overview of the business model Findings Business case and spectrum valuation The research has recognised the differing economic incentives on major segments of the rail industry that lead to the potential for opposing positions to be adopted on key topics. The major challenge of the business case was in developing a cost-benefit analysis that represented the system level of the rail industry, and in particular quantifying benefits. Benefits were eventually quantified under four main areas comprising revenue increase, operating cost reduction, time (delay) reduction, and safety increase, but the availability of supporting information was variable. The research has concluded that preparation of business cases at any level within the industry, but particularly at the crossindustry level would be greatly assisted by co-ordinated documentation on the wide range of benefit measures that can be applied to opportunities. Some of the measures already exist in various parts of the industry but future cross-industry cases would be greatly helped if potential benefits that the rail industry and its constituents deliver were centrally defined, documented, and approaches to their measurement specified. Such co-ordination would have to work within the boundaries of confidentiality of some operators' data. In the same manner as for 'benefits', the research has concluded that there would be value in creating a body of understanding of 'applications' and system developments across the industry, and the impact this has in terms of staffing, system, and process RSSB 3 Development of a cross-industry business case and spectrum valuation for wireless telecommunication T911 - September 2010 requirements, equipment requirements, and realistic timescales to deliver development projects. In delivering this research it was also confirmed that return on investment expectations also differ across the industry, because of the very different positions of the various parties. While many project opportunities will be unique, a set of common measures relating to hurdle rates, discount rates, and other financial parameters, which were agreed at an industry level as forming the basis for initial evaluation of an opportunity, would assist in standardising opportunity appraisal. Business cases prepared at the rail industry level must therefore recognise the complexity of the industry and demonstrate that benefit for the whole industry comes without possible dis-benefit for a particular segment, or the resultant benefit being skewed to one particular segment. Lessons learnt Commissioning of this project recognised the cross-industry nature of the business case development, spectrum valuation, and associated commercial sensitivities. One of its objectives was to provide high-level observations and key lessons of good practice learnt from the delivery of the main aspects of the research, in relation to the preparation of future cross-industry business cases that may encompass segments or all of the rail industry in Great Britain. Good practice and lessons learnt from the research relate to dealing with the GB rail industry structure and its conflicting incentives, identification of applications and opportunities, measurement and quantification of benefits arising, identification of costs, the subjective nature of valuation, and finally project coordination and leadership. The recommendations provide approaches to overcome some of the issues that were faced in this project, and represent key starting points that should be considered in the commencement of future cross-industry projects. The six key recommendations, agreed by FC&PS AG, VTC&C SIC, and TSAG were: 1 Voice of the railway A 'Project Champion' should be drawn from a leading organisation for focussed, time-limited opportunities; otherwise RSSB's current facilitating remit provides a good starting point. 4 RSSB 2 Benefit measures Co-ordinated and centralised documentation should be prepared on the whole range of benefits, their definition, metrics, and approaches to measurement, taking into account intra-industry commercial confidentiality. 3 Application development Create a body of understanding of 'applications' and system developments across the rail industry, their impact on staffing, system and process requirements, equipment requirements, and realistic timescales to deliver development projects. 4 Commercial awareness Communications plays an increasingly vital role in rail operations. Co-ordinate across industry the commercial and non-technical aspects of networks and communications systems to be used for operational purposes, and in future for passenger services. 5 Opportunity valuation Although some project opportunities will be unique, a set of common financial measures and parameters, agreed as the basis for initial evaluation of an opportunity, will standardise and expedite opportunity appraisal. 6 Project co-ordination Develop a cross-industry 'register' of key positions and job descriptions to facilitate timely identification of contributing skills and key staff. Deliverables The main deliverables from this research project were: 1 Business case model and spectrum valuation - held by RSSB and issued to NR and DfT only at present. Consideration will be given to requests from RSSB members to support their own operations as appropriate. 2 A set of 'best practices' derived from the spectrum business case that can be generically used to build business cases to support other cross-industry investments. This is in the form of a series of slides and has been published alongside this research brief. RSSB 5 Development of a cross-industry business case and spectrum valuation for wireless telecommunication T911 - September 2010 Next Steps The FC&PS AG, VTC&C SIC, and TSAG have all accepted that the main objectives of the research have been addressed, ie the successful production of the business case and spectrum valuation and that the final decision on whether to bid during the auction has not yet been made as the final dates and nature of the Ofcom auction have not been publicised. There are no plans to regularly update this business case. The FC&PS AG has been working with RSSB to develop a programme of future work on operational communications for consideration by TSAG. It is anticipated that some of this work may involve further research that will utilise the business case developed here. RSSB has agreed to implement the lessons learnt to any of its future research where a cross-industry business case is developed. Similarly, the members of the project steering group, drawn from the FC&PS AG, will retain and promote the best practice highlighted in this research. On a more formal basis, the lessons learnt were also shared with TSAG in support of its wider interest in 'Enabling Innovation' and the other system interface committee chairs. The VTC&C SIC will also review the benefit and extent of any further dissemination and communication by the SIC and FC&PS AG to key cross-industry project sponsors. The T795 Proof of concept trial demonstrating 900 MHz wireless Internet protocol connectivity research page on the RSSB website includes a note that the technical reports would be published following completion of the T911 research. Currently it is not appropriate to publish these technical reports. This will be reviewed at a future date. Contact For more information please contact: Head of Engineering Research R&D Programme RSSB research@rssb.co.uk 6 RSSB