T817 - August 2010
Telecommunications use by the GB rail industry is in a period of rapid expansion, and this expansion will continue until 2018. It is being driven by the development of numerous new applications, and the enhancement of existing applications, all of which have the aim of making information more accessible to various parts of the industry, and to customers.
This research, on behalf of the Vehicle/Train Control and
Communications System Interface Committee, set out to quantify how much communications bandwidth the industry uses today, how much it will use in the future, at what cost, and how different possible approaches to the development of communications will impact usage and costs. The research developed three scenarios for the future development of railway telecommunications:
Scenario 1: Base Case - this assumes relatively stable political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological (PEST) trends; a level of demand based largely on what the rail industry expects to use or experience over the coming years; and a technical and commercial strategy for providing telecommunications that is little different from today.
Scenario 2: Accelerated Response - this assumes the same
PEST trends as in scenario 1, and, like scenario 1, a level of demand based largely on what the rail industry expects to use or experience over the coming years. However, it assumes that the rail industry changes its approach to meeting this demand, by closer cooperation between stakeholders in the industry, and by investing in its own infrastructure at selected locations on the rail network.
Scenario 3: Highest Demand and Response - this assumes
PEST trends that are more favourable to a growth in telecoms demand. It also assumes that the level of demand experienced by the industry will be aspirational - in other words, at the more ambitious end of what the industry thinks could be envisioned in terms of applications. Finally, it assumes the greatest level of response by the industry - close cooperation between
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Assessing bandwidth demand for future communications needs on GB railways
T817 - August 2010
stakeholders, and a higher level of investment by the industry in its own telecoms infrastructure.
Even continuing on the current course, with little change in its overall strategy, the study showed that the railway industry is likely to see aggregate demand more than doubling over the coming years, and under more optimistic scenarios demand may almost triple.
The optimal course for the industry may depend to a large part on better understanding the consequences of not fully meeting demand for on-train communications, especially demand from passengers. The degree to which the various stakeholders in the industry cooperate with each other in meeting demand will, it is believed, be crucial to their success.
The final report concludes that the risk for the GB rail industry is that if it does not do more to meet the increasing demand for connectivity from its passengers, it may lose them to other modes of transport.
In doing so, the industry is likely to need a better understanding of the degree to which poor passenger connectivity on the rail network could impact the use of the rail network or how passengers' views of onboard connectivity are evolving.
The study aimed to analyse the use of telecommunications bandwidth in the GB rail industry. This encompasses bandwidth that is used:
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Between trains and the shore
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Along the trackside
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At stations
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At depots
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At rail industry offices
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For general mobile communications
In particular it examined how demand is likely to change between now and 2018 under a number of different scenarios. The scenarios encompass changes in demand drivers; changes to the general political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological climates; and alternative ways the industry may respond to these factors.
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The study concluded that the rail industry faces a considerable challenge ahead if it is to keep pace with the rapidly increasing demand for telecommunications across all parts of the network, from both its own operations and staff and from its customers.
Even continuing on the current course, with little change in its overall strategy, is likely to see aggregate demand more than doubling over the coming years, and under more optimistic scenarios demand may almost triple.
The final report suggests that the industry must decide the extent to which it should change its current business models to meet this increased demand. With the exception of GSM-R, and its backhaul network, the Fixed Telephone Network (FTN), the industry currently relies on externally sourced networks, incurring operating expenditure over capital expenditure, and generally does not buy industry-wide telecoms capacity.
To continue on this path will be the least costly alternative - scenario 1, outlined above, shows an NPV of expenditures of a little over £1.5 billion up to 2018, compared to nearly £2.5bn in scenario 2 and nearly £3 billion in scenario 3.
However, reliance on scenario 1 will mean that over 40% of demand for train-based communication may go un-served, compared to 18% of (a higher level of) demand in scenario 3.
The research concluded that the optimal course for the industry depends to a large part on better understanding the consequences of not fully meeting demand for on-train communications, especially demand from passengers. The degree to which the various stakeholders in the industry cooperate with each other in meeting demand will also be crucial to their success.
The deliverables from the study are:
1 A detailed cost model and user guide for assessing bandwidth demand for future communications needs on GB railways. This is currently held by RSSB on behalf of the industry and may be released on request to individual stakeholders within the railway community, with the approval of a member of the RSSB Executive.
2 A final report detailing the results and conclusions of the study, published alongside this research brief.
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The method employed during the study, involved the following steps:
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Identifying stakeholders in railway communications.
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Interviewing stakeholders about current and future communications requirements.
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Developing an initial version of the model, based on the first round of discussions.
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Refining the model using additional input from stakeholders.
This project required some reliable view of what future needs and usage of telecommunications bandwidth will be on the GB railways. In order to arrive at this, a number of different sources were used:
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Vision and strategy for the railways as set out by the
Department for Transport.
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Outputs from RSSB project T908 Development of a technology roadmap and action plan for GB railways .
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Publicly available information including outputs of other working groups, technology trials and major capital projects including the Crossrail project and the Thameslink programme.
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Interviews with respondents.
This section describes the general approach to modelling the capacity requirements of the GB rail industry. This is generally referred to as a bottom-up modelling concept with top-down inputs.
The key modelling principles used were to divide up the rail network (which includes tracks, but also stations, offices, depots, rolling stock, etc) into a number of broadly representative building blocks, which, when added together, amount to the sum total of such assets in existence today.
Assessments were then made of high level research information, about the ways in which applications are used in relation to these assets, and applications and associated network capacity were allocated to these assets in the most appropriate way.
Cost Calculations were made as follows:
On-train applications
For on-train applications, the required base station capacity (plus associated backhaul) is calculated for groups of on-train applications. For the GSM-R network, the model estimates the
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cost of GSM-R capacity and associated backhaul on the FTN, based on available data from Network Rail. The model assumes no significant expansion in GSM-R capacity beyond that which is already planned by Network Rail. The model does assume ongoing maintenance costs for GSM-R, based on estimates obtained from Network Rail.
The model uses current prices for 3G and GPRS data communications, based on research interviews, to estimate the costs of carrying traffic on cellular networks. Where traffic is sent via public cellular networks, it is assumed that the cellular operator is responsible for backhauling the traffic from its own base stations, and hence no backhaul capacity is allowed for in the model. Use of public cellular networks attracts operating costs but no capital expenditure.
In the case of a dedicated trackside wireless network, both capital costs and operating costs will be incurred. The key driver of capital costs will be the number of extra base station sites, if any, that such a wireless network would require, over and above those which already exist for GSM-R. A dedicated wireless network which is able to co-locate base stations with GSM-R base stations
(where towers, power backhaul capacity already exist) would be significantly more cost-effective than one which requires large numbers of new base station locations to be constructed. The
Base Case assumes that any additional base stations would be co-located with GSM-R base stations. A dedicated wireless network would require backhaul and this is assumed to be over the FTN.
Trackside applications and the FTN
All trackside applications are assumed to be carried by the FTN, except for those applications which serve around 900 control centres and signal boxes. These locations are currently not served by the FTN; hence bought-in networks, mostly ADSL lines, meet their telecommunications needs.
In calculating the cost of capacity on the FTN, the model bases its assumptions on the current architecture of the FTN. The FTN is a hierarchical network, which aggregates traffic from a succession of access rings onto a high speed transmission backbone.
Information on the types and quantities of electronics required in the access rings and backbone network have been supplied by
Network Rail, and are dictated by the amount of traffic that the network needs to carry. These relationships are reflected in the cost model. The costs of electronics used in the network have
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been obtained from manufacturer list prices (with suitable discounts applied) and from estimates based on data supplied by
Network Rail.
Stations and depots
The base case assumes that most Network Rail-managed stations run their fixed applications over the FTN. However, for other hub stations, major and minor stations and depots, fixed telecommunications are assumed to be outsourced.
Treatment of outsourcing
Estimating the current and future costs of outsourced telecommunications networks is the most challenging aspect of modelling bandwidth costs.
Individual contracts for telecommunications outsourcing are generally confidential. However, some 'rules of thumb' with regard to outsourcing are generally accepted in the enterprise networking community. While individual contracts may vary, it is believed that on average customers target savings in the order of
20% when entering into outsourcing contracts. The model therefore uses this as an assumption when comparing the costs of outsourcing with the costs of bought-in networks.
In estimating costs, the model excludes passenger self-provided mobile voice communications, since the industry does not bear this cost itself.
This project has been sponsored by the Vehicle/Train Control and
Communications System Interface Committee.
Currently it is intended that the output of this research should be taken forwards, along with that of a number of related projects, into new a program of work to be sponsored by the Future
Communications and Positioning Systems Advisory Group for the
Vehicle/Train Control and Communications System Interface
Committee. This new program of work is needed to consider the future demand for bandwidth and IT services on the railway network, in order to advise how this might best be provided and the extent to which it makes economic and commercial sense to do so. This further work is intended to:
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Determine an approach to data and information sharing and to develop guidance and standards for use by stakeholders.
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Support the use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) telecoms technology within the railway industry - through the use of standard interfaces and open architectures.
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Support buyers and specifiers in their procurement of the services that will be needed.
Currently, it is thought that the research report summary and the costs model could be particularly useful in the development of future scenarios to support this work.
The next steps are intended to be to develop this work into a more detailed program of work with a supporting business case, for approval by the Technical Strategy Advisory Group during the autumn of 2010.
For more information please contact:
Head of Engineering Research
R&D Programme
RSSB research@rssb.co.uk
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