WHERE DOES THE GROWTH OF ROAD
FREIGHT TRANSPORT END, AND WHAT CAN
POLICY MAKERS DO ABOUT IT?
Gerwin Zomer (TNO)
Loes Aarts (RWS)
Introduction
Motivation: OECD study Moving Freight with Better Trucks
Two questions to be answered
•
•
Where does the growth of road freight transport end? (Gerwin Zomer)
And what can policy makers do about it? (Loes Aarts)
Conclusions
History
• Strong growth European
road freight
­
­
Average + 3.2% per year
In US + 1.9% per year
• Rail and IWT stable
• Increased share of road
­
­
73% in continental transport
46% of all modes
Forecast
Recent forecast studies
­
­
Fo r e c a s t EU r o a d fr e ig h t tr a n s p o r t
Transvisions
Freightvision
3000
2500
Based on TRANS-TOOLS (2030)
and foresight methods
billion TKM
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2050
Results:
­
­
2005 – 2020: 1.6% per year
2005 – 2030: 1.0% per year
IN T R A E UIm p o r t/e xp o r t o u ts i d e E U
Main drivers of growth
• Economic growth and growth of
prosperity
• Changing patterns of production
and consumption
• Evolution of transport costs
Evolution in road freight
transport efficiency
• Transport efficiency =
productivity vs costs
• Productivity increased: average
payload, empty runnings, fleet
utilization
Average loading of all laden heavy vehicles
20
• Cost reduction under pressure
by wages and fuel costs
in tonnes
18
16
United Kingdom
14
Netherlands
12
Sweden
10
France
8
6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Reflection on growth I
• Decoupling GDP/ transport
elasticity down
• Production/consumption local
to local; Eastern Europe and North
Africa
• Transport costs/efficiency
transport costs factors all rise; rise of
logistics costs as % of GDP; potential in
cutting empty runnings is modest
Reflection on growth II
•
From demand driven scenarios to
including supply related constraints
•
Facilitating growth no longer self-evident
•
Recent ‘2050’ scenarios take into account
constrained and reduced mobility
•
Nevertheless, improving efficiency seems
to be the answer to balance policy needs
And what can policy makers
do about it?
Efficiency
In everyone’s interest?
Efficiency means less
Not impeded by any
knowledge on logistics …
Different perspectives, risk for
ineffective measures
• Public interest can be against
the interest of individual
companies
• Regardless of the different
interests within the supply
chain
• Possible conflicting public
needs
Logistic efficiency ≠ transport
efficiency
• Service level requirements
– Rush orders
• Minimise total logistic costs
(not only transport)
– EDC: Extra handling, more
transport
– Order quantity/order
frequency (small
replenishment orders)
OECD-report: Moving freight
with better trucks
OECD working group on Heavy Vehicles: 2007 - 2009
Purpose: identify potential opportunities for greater efficiency
and higher productivity and at the same time reduce negative
impact of road freight transport
Selected measures:
­
­
­
­
Reduction of fuel consumption
Improve productivity
Enlarge capacity
Improve the use of the infrastructure network
Reduction of fuel use
Improved engines, optimized
aerodynamics, reduced
rolling resistance tires,
optimized driveline, reduce
energy needed for auxiliaries
and eco-driving.
In everyone’s interest,
if investments will pay back
Improve productivity
Collaboration within the supply
chain, further
implementation of ICT,
reconsidering Just-in-Time
and planning outside rush
hours.
In everyone’s interest,
if on a voluntary basis and tailormade solutions
Enlarge capacity
1. Increasing the maximum
weight and dimensions of
heavy vehicles
In everyone’s interest,
if under the right conditions
2. Require a minimum payload
Not in everyone’s
interest!
Improve the use of infrastructure
Remove impeding rules,
increase use of smart traffic
management, dedicated
lanes, upgrading heavy truck
traffic routes, create logistics
parks near cities and
introduce PBS
In everyone’s interest,
if access is not limited
Conclusions
Where does the growth of road freight transport end?
•
•
•
Flattening growth rates in developed countries expected
Scenarios to cope with uncertainty
Striving for efficiency is in all cases a good transport policy target
And what can policy makers do about it?
•
•
•
Transport efficiency and logistics efficiency often goes hand in hand, not always
Understanding logistics essential for effective transport policy
Taken transport efficiency measures that will lead to logistics inefficiency are up to
politicians (as is the other way around)