WHERE DOES THE GROWTH OF ROAD
FREIGHT TRANSPORT END, AND WHAT CAN
POLICY MAKERS DO ABOUT IT?
Gerwin Zomer (TNO)
Loes Aarts (RWS)
Introduction
Mo#va#on: OECD study Moving Freight with Be:er Trucks Two ques#ons to be answered •
•
Where does the growth of road freight transport end? (Gerwin Zomer) And what can policy makers do about it? (Loes Aarts) Conclusions History
•  Strong growth European road freight -
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Average + 3.2% per year In US + 1.9% per year •  Rail and IWT stable •  Increased share of road -
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73% in con#nental transport 46% of all modes Forecast
Recent forecast studies -
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Transvisions Freightvision Based on TRANS-­‐TOOLS (2030) and foresight methods Results: -
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2005 – 2020: 1.6% per year 2005 – 2030: 1.0% per year Main drivers of growth
•  Economic growth and growth of prosperity •  Changing pa:erns of produc#on and consump#on •  Evolu#on of transport costs Evolution in road freight
transport efficiency
•  Transport efficiency = produc#vity vs costs •  Produc#vity increased: average payload, empty runnings, fleet u#liza#on •  Cost reduc#on under pressure by wages and fuel costs Reflection on growth I
•  Decoupling GDP/ transport elas#city down •  Produc#on/consump#on local to local; Eastern Europe and North Africa •  Transport costs/efficiency transport costs factors all rise; rise of logis#cs costs as % of GDP; poten#al in cugng empty runnings is modest Reflection on growth II
•  From demand driven scenarios to including supply related constraints •  Facilita#ng growth no longer self-­‐evident •  Recent ‘2050’ scenarios take into account constrained and reduced mobility •  Nevertheless, improving efficiency seems to be the answer to balance policy needs And what can policy makers
do about it?
Efficiency In everyone’s interest? Efficiency means less
Not impeded by any
knowledge on logistics …
Different perspec#ves, risk for ineffec#ve measures •  Public interest can be against the interest of individual companies •  Regardless of the different interests within the supply chain •  Possible conflic#ng public needs Logistic efficiency ≠ transport
efficiency
•  Service level requirements –  Rush orders •  Minimise total logis#c costs (not only transport) –  EDC: Extra handling, more transport –  Order quan#ty/order frequency (small replenishment orders) OECD-report: Moving freight
with better trucks
OECD working group on Heavy Vehicles: 2007 -­‐ 2009 Purpose: iden#fy poten#al opportuni#es for greater efficiency and higher produc#vity and at the same #me reduce nega#ve impact of road freight transport Selected measures: -
-
-
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Reduc#on of fuel consump#on Improve produc#vity Enlarge capacity Improve the use of the infrastructure network Reduction of fuel use
Improved engines, op#mized aerodynamics, reduced rolling resistance #res, op#mized driveline, reduce energy needed for auxiliaries and eco-­‐driving. In everyone’s interest, if investments will pay back Improve productivity
Collabora#on within the supply chain, further implementa#on of ICT, reconsidering Just-­‐in-­‐Time and planning outside rush hours. In everyone’s interest, if on a voluntary basis and tailor-­‐
made solu#ons Enlarge capacity
1. Increasing the maximum weight and dimensions of heavy vehicles In everyone’s interest, if under the right condi#ons 2. Require a minimum payload Not in everyone’s interest! Improve the use of infrastructure
Remove impeding rules, increase use of smart traffic management, dedicated lanes, upgrading heavy truck traffic routes, create logis#cs parks near ci#es and introduce PBS In everyone’s interest, if access is not limited Conclusions
Where does the growth of road freight transport end? •
•
•
Fla:ening growth rates in developed countries expected Scenarios to cope with uncertainty Striving for efficiency is in all cases a good transport policy target And what can policy makers do about it? •
•
•
Transport efficiency and logis#cs efficiency open goes hand in hand, not always Understanding logis#cs essen#al for effec#ve transport policy Taken transport efficiency measures that will lead to logis#cs inefficiency are up to poli#cians (as is the other way around)