Towards a Tool for the Toolkit
Mike Landram
Can You Relate?
What Toolkit?
ƒ Recently accepted research project – “A
Toolkit for Adapting to Climate Change
on Western National Forests:
Incorporating Climate into Resource
Management and Planning”
ƒ *Connie Millar, Linda Joyce, Ron Neilson,
Dave Peterson; *corresponding PI
Research Project Tasks
ƒ Task 1. Develop adaptation management resource materials in multiple
formats.
ƒ Task 2. Conduct replicate case studies.
– Product 1. Develop a rapid-audit tool to screen projects for climatechange implications.
– Product 2. Develop and evaluate an approach for evaluating the
compatibility of resource management approaches with climate change
adaptation.
– Product 3. Develop and evaluate a process for addressing uncertainty in
national forest projects and plans.
ƒ Task 3. Extend and refine case-study results for broader applications.
ƒ Task 4. Intensively develop the Climate Change Resource Center
website.
Aim of This PowerPoint – Suggest a Tool
(perhaps part of the rapid-audit tool) that:
ƒ Allows manager to know where a forested
site is within today’s climate envelope
ƒ Allows manager to know where species on
that site are within today’s climate envelope
ƒ Identifies likely change in forest type and
species occurrence in the next 30 – 100 yrs.
Here’s my first crack at developing a tool
ƒ I’ll call it the “Climate Envelope Tool”
ƒ I used the National Weather Service Coop
weather station histories found at
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/climsum.html
ƒ I used species info I got from Hugh Safford which
he got from the publication:
– Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Bartlein,
Patrick J. 1999. Atlas of relations between climatic
parameters and distributions of important trees and
shrubs in North America. USGS Professional Paper
1650-A, B.
Data - 122 Weather Stations
ƒ I pulled mean annual temperature and mean
annual precipitation from the website for the
entire history available for each station
ƒ I assigned an existing forest type to each:
– conifer
– hardwood
– grass/shrub
Resulting Forest Type Climate Envelope
80
California National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Stations
Mean Annual Precipitation (in.)
.
source: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html
60
CONIFER
40
20
GRASS/SHRUB
HARDWOOD
0
36
42
48
54
Mean Annual Temperature (°F)
60
66
How much hotter is it going to get?
ƒ “projected 2.5 to 10.4 °F rise in global
average temperature above current by
2100” – source: Connie Millar briefing paper
for 1/23/07 REMCG/WODG meeting
ƒ So let’s work with 6 °F for this
presentation….
Add an Arrow
80
Mean Annual Precipitation °F
.
THIS ARROW REPRESENTS THOSE 6 DEGREES
60
CONIFER
40
20
GRASS/SHRUB
HARDWOOD
0
36
42
48
54
Mean Annual Temperature °F
60
66
Likely Trends
Mean Annual Precipitation °F
.
80
60
CONIFER
TREND FROM CONIFER TYPE
TO HARDWOOD?
REMAIN CONIFER TYPE
40
TREND FROM CONIFER TYPE
TO HARDWOOD
20
GRASS/SHRUB
TREND FROM HARDWOOD TYPE
TO GRASS/FORB
HARDWOOD
0
36
42
48
54
60
Mean Annual Temperature °F
66
72
I like this because these are real places
that I can relate to
Mean Annual Precipitation
.
80
60
Hoopa
Paradise
Willow Creek
Orleans
Dobbins 1 S
Tiger Creek Powerhouse
Salt Springs Powerhouse
Angwin Pacific Union College
Big Bar RS
Placerville
Mount Wilson No. 2
Auburn
CONIFER
40
20
Henshaw Dam
Boca
Portola
Big Bear Lake
Woodfords
Fort Jones RS
Callahan
Hat Creek Powerhouse
GRASS/SHRUB
HARDWOOD
0
36
42
48
54
Mean Annual Temperature
60
66
Knowing This…..
ƒ I might prioritize different landscapes for
treatment
ƒ I might adjust species preference in a
thinning
ƒ I might adjust species composition in a
planting
Research Project Should Refine
This Idea
ƒ Is mean annual temp./precip. too simple to
be useful?
ƒ Is my characterization of forest type
accurate enough or adequate enough?
ƒ Can 6 degrees by 2100 be refined?
ƒ Can precipitation forecasts be added?
Species Envelopes/Niches
ƒ USGS Professional Paper 1650-A, B. can
be found at
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/info/holdings.h
tml
ƒ Used weather stations and species range
maps (example: Atlas of U.S. Trees, Elbert
Little, 1971) to build algorithms that predict
presence on a widely spaced grid.
Percentile Predictions of Occurrence
Annual Temperature (°C)
10%
50%
90%
Range
Abies concolor
1.6
7.4
11.8
10.2
Abies magnifica
5.2
7.5
8.6
3.4
Pinus albicaulis
-2.0
1.1
5.4
7.4
Pinus contorta
-2.8
1.2
6.3
9.1
Pinus flexilis
-1.3
1.9
6.1
7.4
Pinus jeffreyi
6.3
8.3
13.7
7.4
Pinus lambertiana
6.5
9.4
12.9
6.4
Pinus monticola
0.1
5.4
9.3
9.2
Pinus ponderosa
2.7
7.5
15.2
12.5
Pinus sabiniana
10.9
13.9
15.8
4.9
Pseudotsuga menziesii
0.0
4.1
11.5
11.5
Quercus kelloggii
7.4
10.6
14.5
7.1
Percentile Predictions of Occurrence
Annual Precipitation (mm)
10%
50%
90%
Range
Abies concolor
375
585
1185
810
Abies magnifica
635
1015
1495
860
Pinus albicaulis
565
865
1350
785
Pinus contorta
425
620
1675
1250
Pinus flexilis
365
595
910
545
Pinus jeffreyi
345
815
1605
1260
Pinus lambertiana
550
1000
1450
900
Pinus monticola
610
1125
2190
1580
Pinus ponderosa
335
530
1085
750
Pinus sabiniana
265
595
1050
785
Pseudotsuga menziesii
415
745
1620
1205
Quercus kelloggii
495
940
1380
885
Resulting Graph for Some Species
1600
ABMA
Mean annual ppt (mm)
1400
1200 PIAL
1000
QUKE
ABCO
800
600
PSME
400
PIPO
200
0
-5
0
5
10
Mean annual temp (C)
Source: Hugh’s Graph
15
20
.
Typical Sierra mixed-conifer (my graph)
80
Mean Annual Precipitation (in.)
70
adapted from USGS Professional Paper 1650-A,B
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/info/holdings.ht
60
incense cedar
Douglas-fir
sugar pine
50
black oak
white fir
40
30
20
ponderosa pine
10
0
32
38
44
50
56
Mean Annual Temperature (°F)
62
.
So “X” marks Placerville
What’s up with that?
80
Mean Annual Precipitation (in.)
70
adapted from USGS Professional Paper 1650-A,B
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/info/holdings.ht
60
incense cedar
Douglas-fir
sugar pine
50
black oak
white fir
40
X
30
20
ponderosa pine
10
0
32
38
44
50
56
Mean Annual Temperature (°F)
62
Research Project Should Refine
This Idea
ƒ In California, does Douglas-fir really live in
colder environments than white fir?
ƒ In California, can ponderosa pine really live
in drier environments than black oak?
ƒ Does Placerville really not support trees?
ƒ Can we adapt methods started in USGS
Professional Paper 1650-A, B and create a
product that is accurate and adequate
enough to support management decisions?
Is this tool worth further
development?
Can we get it down out of these
clouds?