PHILADELPHIA
REGIONAL HOUSE
PRICE INDICES
November 24, 2015
KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D.
Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University provides this report free of charge to the public. The
report is produced by Lindy Senior Research Fellow Kevin Gillen, in association with Meyers Research LLC. The author thanks Azavea.com, the
Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com
and the NAHB for making their data publicly available.
© 2015, Drexel University and Meyers Research LLC, All Rights Reserved.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2015
1980Q1=100
540.0
490.0
Phila. Region*
440.0
U.S. Avg.**
390.0
340.0
290.0
240.0
190.0
140.0
Q3
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
**Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
90.0
House Price Appreciation 1987-2015:
Philadelphia Region v. 10-City U.S. Composite
390.0
340.0
10-City Composite*
290.0
240.0
Philadelphia Region
% Change
10-City
1998 to Peak: +172%
From Peak:
-13%
Philadelphia
+106%
-13%
190.0
140.0
90.0
19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
*Source: Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC. The 10-City Composite Index includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles,
Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2015
by Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S.: 1980Q1=100
540.0
490.0
Philadelphia*
Phila. Suburbs*
U.S. Avg.**
440.0
390.0
340.0
290.0
240.0
190.0
140.0
Q3
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD **Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
90.0
Note: The suburban index includes all counties in
the regional index, except for Philadelphia county.
Total House Price Appreciation Rates by
Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S.
Period
Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia
Region*
County*
Suburbs*
U.S.A.**
36-Year
141.0%
145.3%
139.5%
130.2%
10-Year
-9.8%
-0.9%
-13.0%
5.9%
1-Year
2.0%
6.2%
0.5%
5.2%
1-Quarter
0.3%
1.3%
0.0%
1.2%
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen Ph.D.
**Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). FHFA numbers are through 2015 Q2
only.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2015, by County
1980Q1=100
Philadelphia*
590.0
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
Montgomery
490.0
New Castle
Mercer
Burlington
Camden
390.0
Gloucester
Salem
290.0
190.0
Q3
*All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
90.0
Philadelphia Region House Price Appreciation Rates by County
Period
Philadelphia
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
36-Year
145.3%
156.3%
152.7%
129.5%
142.0%
10-Year
-0.9%
-12.7%
-4.6%
-17.3%
1-Year
6.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1-Quarter
1.3%
-0.6%
0.1%
Montgomery New Castle
Mercer
Burlington
Camden
Gloucester
Salem
132.4%
165.2%
123.8%
116.4%
136.0%
120.1%
-11.3%
-14.6%
-5.6%
-23.6%
-28.7%
-15.5%
-26.4%
-1.7%
0.5%
3.4%
1.5%
1.2%
-1.7%
-1.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
0.0%
0.2%
4.4%
1.6%
-3.0%
0.6%
0.5%
All county-level indices and appreciation rates estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015 Q3 House Price Rate of Change by County
Montgomery: +0.0%
Bucks: -0.6%
Philadelphia: +1.3%
Mercer: +4.4%
Chester: +0.1%
Delaware: -2.2%
Burlington: +1.6%
New Castle: +0.2%
Camden: -3.0%
Gloucester: +0.6%
Salem: +0.5%
Note: Each county is extruded by its average change in house values during 2015 Q3
in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other counties.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median Regional House Price v. Indexed Regional House Price
$250,000
$200,000
Median Price
Indexed Price*
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$0
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median House Price by County: 1980-2015
$400,000
New Castle
Mercer
$350,000
Burlington
Camden
$300,000
Gloucester
Salem
$250,000
Bucks
Chester
$200,000
Delaware
Montgomery
$150,000
Philadelphia
$100,000
$50,000
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
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1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
$0
Number of Regional House Sales per Quarter: 2005-2015
Q1
25,000
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,000
Qtly. Average
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2005
2006
2007
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Number of Regional House Sales 2005-2015
with Price>=$1m
Q1
250
Q2
Q3
Q4
200
Qtly. Average
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Philadelphia Region House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Bucks County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Montgomery County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Chester County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Delaware County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
New Castle County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Mercer County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Burlington County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Camden County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Gloucester County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Salem County House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
+$1 Million Dollar House Sales in 2015 Q3
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Region Houses Listed For Sale:
Inventory v. Sales Rate
60,000
25%
Source: TrendMLS
# Houses Listed For Sale
50,000
20%
40,000
15%
30,000
10%
20,000
5%
10,000
0
0%
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
%Sold = (#Sales/#Listings)
# Homes Listed "For Sale"
% Absorbed
Philadelphia Region Avg. DOM*: Houses v. Condos
140
120
HOUSES
CONDOS
100
80
60
DOM is the average "days-onmarket": the average number of days
it takes for a listed home to sell. In a
a market that is evenly balanced
between buyers and sellers, 40-60
days is considered the typical norm.
40
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
2006
2005
2005
2005
2004
20
Philadelphia Region Months of Supply*: Houses v. Condos
20
HOUSES
CONDOS
15
10
5
*Months of Supply is how
many months it would take to
sell off the current inventory
of listed homes, given the
current pace of sales.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
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2008
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2007
2006
2006
0
Top 10 Largest Homebuilding Projects Currently in the Philadelphia Region
By Total Number of Units Planned
Largest Homebuilding Projects in the Philadelphia Region
Total Units Average Floorplan
Project Name
Builder/Developer
Location
Planned
Size (sq. ft. )
The Preserve at Robinson Farms Handler Homes
Townsend, DE
476
1,645
Estates at Saint Annes (The)
LC Homes
Middletown, DE
469
3,363
Village Grande at Camelot (The) D.R. Horton
Glassboro, NJ
450
1,910
Ponds at Bayberry South
Blenheim Homes
Middletown, DE
389
1,906
Regency at Yardley/Villas
Toll Brothers
Morrisville, PA
377
2,142
Montebello
J.S. Hovnanian & Sons Berlin Township, NJ
348
1,948
White Springs at Providence
Toll Brothers
Collegeville, PA
328
2,360
Siena Place
Judd Builders
Philadelphia, PA
313
2,783
Four Seasons at Silver Maple
K. Hovnanian Homes
Middletown, DE
299
1,985
Cinema Series (Bayberry North) Blenheim Homes
Middletown, DE
286
2,450
Price Range
$206,500-$217,500
$354,900-$414,900
$214,990-$250,990
$278,900-$333,900
$477,995-$534,995
$299,900-$334,900
$389,995-$431,995
$402,900-$438,900
$286,400-$341,400
$309,900-$354,900
Source: Zonda
Notes:
1) Three out of the top-10 largest projects are townhome projects: The Preserve at
Robinson Farms, White Springs at Providence, Siena Place.
2) Four out of the top-10 largest projects are active-adult communities: Village
Grande at Camelot, Regency at Yardley/Villas, Montebello, Four Seasons at Silver
Maple.
3) Five out of the top-10 largest projects are in New Castle County, DE with four of
them located in Middletown.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Location of Top 10
Largest
Homebuilding
Projects in the
Philadelphia Region
The Estates at
Saint Annes
LC Homes
Middletown, DE
White Springs at
Providence
Toll Brothers
Collegeville, PA
Ponds at
Bayberry South
Blenheim
Homes
Middletown, DE
Cinema Series at
Bayberry North
Blenheim Homes
Middletown, DE
Four Seasons
at Silver Maple
K. Hovnanian
Homes
Middletown, DE
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Regency at
Yardley/Villas
Toll Brothers
Morrisville, PA
Siena Place
Judd Builders
Philadelphia,
PA
The Village
Grande at
Camelot
D.R Horton
Glassboro, NJ
The Preserve
at Robinson
Farms
Handler Homes
Townsend, DE
Montebello
J.S. Hovnanian
& Sons
Berlin Twp, NJ
Pennsylvania Foreclosure Rates
1 out of every 714 homes
in Philadelphia is
currently in the process
of foreclosure, which is
down from 1 out of every
610 homes in the
previous quarter.
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/pa
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
In the entire
Commonwealth, 1 out of
every 1,218 homes in
Pennsylvania is in the
process of foreclosure,
which is also down from
1 out of every 858 homes
in the previous quarter.
New Jersey Foreclosure Rates
South Jersey’s foreclosure rate
remains higher than
Pennsylvania’s, and it is currently
trending up while Pennsylvania’s
is trending down.
Currently, 1 out of every 257
homes in Atlantic County is in the
process of foreclosure, up from 1
out of every 371 homes in the
previous quarter. And 1 out of
every 286 homes in Camden
County is in the process of
foreclosure, which is also up from 1
out of every 383 homes in the
previous quarter.
1 out of every 471 homes in New
Jersey is in the process of
foreclosure, compared to 1 out of
every 584 three months ago.
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/nj
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Delaware Foreclosure Rates
Delaware has the lowest overall foreclosure
rate in the Tri-State area, but the latest
results indicate mixed trends:
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/de
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
•
1 out of every 919 homes in New Castle
County, up from 1 out of every 1,433
homes in the previous quarter.
•
1 out of every 1,244 homes in Kent
County, down substantially from 1 out
of every 694 homes in the previous
quarter
•
1 out of every 1,940 homes in Sussex
County, down from 1 out of every 1,365
homes in the previous quarter
•
An average of 1 out of every 1,152
homes Statewide, up from 1 out of every
1,207 homes in the previous quarter.
Housing's Road to Recovery: %Lost v. %Recovered
30%
%Remaining
20%
%Recovered
1%
0%
-10%
-20%
23%
22%
10%
-19% -21%
-1%
0%
-13% -10%
-11%
-19%
-27%
-11% -13%
-30% -31% -29%
-24%
-19%
-16%
-31%
-4%
-14%
-20%
-28%
-8% -13% -14%
-40%
-50%
-60%
Since the housing market hit bottom, this chart shows how much house prices
need to rise in each city in order to erase the cumulative losses from the bust.
The total rebound (to date) in house prices is shown by the blue bars, while the
remaining losses are shown by the red bars. For example, the Philadelphia
Region's average house prices fell by a cumulative 23% from peak to trough. To
date, they have rebounded by 10%, which implies they need to rise another
13% in order to return to their pre-bust peak levels. Source: Kevin C. Gillen,
Ph.D. All other cities courtesy S&P/Case-Shiller.
-70%
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
-23% -24% -23%
-45%
-15%
-30%
-20%
-28%
-32% -29%
-18%
-1%
-28%
-32%
-38%