PHILADELPHIA
REGIONAL HOUSE
PRICE INDICES
August 11, 2015
KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D.
Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University provides this report free of charge to the public. The
report is produced by Lindy Senior Research Fellow Kevin Gillen, in association with Meyers Research LLC. The author thanks Azavea.com, the
Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com
and the NAHB for making their data publicly available.
© 2015, Drexel University and Meyers Research LLC, All Rights Reserved.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2015
1980Q1=100
540.0
490.0
Phila. Region*
440.0
U.S. Avg.**
390.0
340.0
290.0
240.0
190.0
140.0
Q2
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
**Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
90.0
House Price Appreciation 1987-2015:
Philadelphia Region v. 10-City U.S. Composite
390.0
340.0
10-City Composite*
290.0
240.0
Philadelphia Region
% Change
10-City
1998 to Peak: +172%
From Peak:
-14%
Philadelphia
+106%
-14%
190.0
140.0
90.0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
*Source: Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC. The 10-City Composite Index includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles,
Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
540.0
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2015
by Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S.: 1980Q1=100
490.0
440.0
Philadelphia*
Phila. Suburbs*
U.S. Avg.**
390.0
340.0
290.0
240.0
190.0
140.0
Q2
90.0
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD **Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Note: The suburban index includes all counties in
the regional index, except for Philadelphia county.
Total House Price Appreciation Rates by
Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S.
Period
Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia
Region*
County*
Suburbs*
U.S.A.**
36-Year
141.8%
144.4%
140.8%
128.9%
10-Year
-5.7%
3.0%
-8.6%
7.2%
1-Year
2.1%
5.4%
1.0%
4.8%
1-Quarter
5.8%
7.3%
5.2%
1.3%
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen Ph.D.
**Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). FHFA numbers are through 2015 Q1
only.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2015, by County
1980Q1=100
Philadelphia*
590.0
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
Montgomery
490.0
New Castle
Mercer
Burlington
Camden
390.0
Gloucester
Salem
290.0
190.0
Q2
*All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
90.0
Philadelphia Region House Price Appreciation Rates by County
Period
Philadelphia
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
36-Year
144.4%
159.3%
156.5%
133.6%
147.9%
10-Year
3.0%
-7.7%
2.6%
-10.6%
1-Year
5.4%
3.0%
5.4%
1-Quarter
7.3%
6.4%
6.1%
Montgomery New Castle
Mercer
Burlington
Camden
Gloucester
Salem
132.6%
159.7%
123.0%
120.1%
136.3%
120.0%
-3.7%
-11.6%
-5.9%
-19.9%
-21.2%
-10.1%
-24.7%
-0.6%
4.1%
4.6%
-4.5%
0.4%
-1.8%
0.9%
-2.4%
9.9%
6.8%
6.9%
3.2%
2.1%
3.1%
4.6%
-3.8%
All county-level indices and appreciation rates estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015 Q2 House Price Rate of Change by County
Montgomery: +6.8%
Bucks: +6.4%
Philadelphia: +7.3%
Mercer: +3.2%
Chester: +6.1%
Delaware: +9.9%
Burlington: +2.1%
New Castle: +6.9%
Camden: +3.1%
Gloucester: +4.6%
Salem: -3.8%
Note: Each county is extruded by its average change in house values during 2015 Q2
in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other counties.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median Regional House Price v. Indexed Regional House Price
$250,000
$200,000
Median Price
Indexed Price*
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$0
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median House Price by County: 1980-2015
$400,000
New Castle
Mercer
$350,000
Burlington
Camden
$300,000
Gloucester
Salem
$250,000
Bucks
Chester
$200,000
Delaware
Montgomery
$150,000
Philadelphia
$100,000
$50,000
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
$0
Number of Regional House Sales per Quarter: 2005-2015
Q1
25,000
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,000
Qtly. Average
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2005
2006
2007
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Number of Regional House Sales 2005-2015
with Price>=$1m
Q1
250
Q2
Q3
Q4
200
Qtly. Average
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Philadelphia Region House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Bucks County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Montgomery County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Chester County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Delaware County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
New Castle County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Mercer County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Burlington County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Camden County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Gloucester County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Salem County House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
+$1 Million Dollar House Sales in 2015 Q2
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Region Houses Listed For Sale:
Inventory v. Sales Rate
60,000
20%
Source: TrendMLS
# Houses Listed For Sale
% Absorbed
50,000
16%
14%
40,000
12%
30,000
10%
8%
20,000
6%
4%
10,000
2%
0
0%
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
%Sold = (#Sales/#Listings)
# Homes Listed "For Sale"
18%
Philadelphia Region Avg. DOM*: Houses v. Condos
140
120
HOUSES
CONDOS
100
80
60
DOM is the average "days-onmarket": the average number of days
it takes for a listed home to sell. In a
a market that is evenly balanced
between buyers and sellers, 40-60
days is considered the typical norm.
40
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
2006
2005
2005
2005
2004
20
Philadelphia Region Months of Supply*: Houses v. Condos
20
HOUSES
CONDOS
15
10
5
*Months of Supply is how
many months it would take to
sell off the current inventory
of listed homes, given the
current pace of sales.
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
0
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Pennsylvania Foreclosure Rates
1 out of every 610 homes
in Philadelphia is
currently in the process of
foreclosure, which is up
from 1 out of every 758
homes in the previous
quarter.
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/pa
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
In the entire
Commonwealth, 1 out of
every 858 homes in
Pennsylvania is in the
process of foreclosure,
which is also up from 1
out of every 1,217 homes
in the previous quarter.
New Jersey Foreclosure Rates
Although South Jersey’s
foreclosure rate remains higher
than Pennsylvania’s, it is currently
trending down while
Pennsylvania’s is trending up.
Currently, 1 out of every 371 homes
in Atlantic County is in the process
of foreclosure, down from 1 out of
every 255 homes in the previous
quarter. And 1 out of every 383
homes in Camden County is in the
process of foreclosure, which is
also down from 1 out of every 355
homes in the previous quarter.
Just 6 months ago, 1 out of every
188 homes in South Jersey was in
the process of foreclosure.
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/nj
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Delaware Foreclosure Rates
Delaware continues to not only have the
lowest overall foreclosure rate in the TriState area, but its foreclosure rate is also
generally trending downwards:
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/de
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
•
1 out of every 1,433 homes in New
Castle County, down from 1 out of every
783 homes in the previous quarter.
•
1 out of every 694 homes in Kent
County, down from 1 out of every 659
homes in the previous quarter
•
1 out of every 1,365 homes in Sussex
County, down from 1 out of every 1,109
homes in the previous quarter
•
An average of 1 out of every 1,207
homes Statewide, down from 1 out of
every 832 homes in the previous
quarter.
Housing's Road to Recovery: %Lost v. %Recovered
20%
10%
20%
19%
0%
-8%
-9% -8%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-16%
-16% -16%
-25%
-4% -4%
-14% -15%
-28%
-23% -21%
-14%
-20%
-17%
-27% -25% -25%
-19%
%Remaining
-26%
-38%
-8% -11%
-18%
-18%
-25%
-31%
-13% -17% -18%
%Recovered
Now that the housing market's recovery appears to have arrived, this chart
shows how much house prices need to rise in each city in order to erase the
cumulative losses from the bust. The total rebound (to date) in house prices is
shown by the blue bars, while the remaining losses are shown by the red bars.
For example, the Philadelphia Region's average house prices fell by a cumulative
23% from peak to trough. To date, they have rebounded by 9%, which implies
they need to rise another 14% in order to return to their pre-bust peak levels.
Source: Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. All other cities courtesy S&P/Case-Shiller.
-70%
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
-21% -21% -20%
-24%
-8%
-31%
-35%
-42%