PHILADELPHIA
REGIONAL HOUSE
PRICE INDICES
January 29, 2015
KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D.
Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University provides this report free of charge to the public. The
report is produced by Lindy Senior Research Fellow Kevin Gillen, in association with Meyers Research LLC. The author thanks Azavea.com, the
Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com
and the NAHB for making their data publicly available.
© 2015, Drexel University and Meyers Research LLC, All Rights Reserved.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2014
1980Q1=100
540.0
490.0
Phila. Region*
440.0
U.S. Avg.**
390.0
340.0
290.0
240.0
190.0
140.0
Q4
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
**Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
90.0
House Price Appreciation 1987-2014:
Philadelphia Region v. 10-City U.S. Composite
390.0
340.0
10-City Composite*
290.0
240.0
Philadelphia Region
% Change
10-City
1998 to Peak: +172%
From Peak:
-17%
Philadelphia
+106%
-16%
190.0
140.0
90.0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
*Source: Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC. The 10-City Composite Index includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles,
Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
540.0
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2014
by Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S.: 1980Q1=100
490.0
440.0
Philadelphia*
Phila. Suburbs*
U.S. Avg.**
390.0
340.0
290.0
240.0
190.0
140.0
Q4
90.0
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD **Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Note: The suburban index includes all counties in
the regional index, except for Philadelphia county.
Total House Price Appreciation Rates by
Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S.
Period
Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia
Region*
County*
Suburbs*
U.S.A.**
35-Year
138.8%
141.3%
137.9%
126.2%
10-Year
-0.6%
12.2%
-4.9%
9.4%
1-Year
-0.8%
5.1%
-2.8%
4.4%
1-Quarter
-1.6%
0.8%
-2.4%
0.9%
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen Ph.D.
**Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). FHFA numbers are through 2014 Q3
only.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-2014, by County
1980Q1=100
Philadelphia*
590.0
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
490.0
Montgomery
New Castle
Mercer
Burlington
390.0
Camden
Gloucester
Salem
290.0
190.0
Q4
90.0
*All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Region House Price Appreciation Rates by County
Period
Philadelphia
Bucks
35-Year
141.3%
155.2%
10-Year
12.2%
-5.0%
5.5%
1-Year
5.1%
7.7%
1-Quarter
0.8%
-0.3%
Chester
Delaware
152.0% 128.4%
Montgomery New Castle
Mercer
Burlington
Camden
Gloucester
Salem
140.5%
127.1%
163.8%
120.1%
115.3%
134.4%
116.5%
-8.3%
-4.8%
-9.9%
3.6%
-14.9%
-16.5%
-3.2%
-20.7%
-1.3%
-5.4%
-2.8%
0.8%
0.5%
5.3%
-11.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.0%
-5.0%
-2.3%
-2.3%
1.1%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-3.4%
-6.2%
All county-level indices and appreciation rates estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2014 Q4 House Price Rate of Change by County
Bucks: -0.3%
Philadelphia: +0.8%
Montgomery: -2.3%
Mercer: +1.1%
Chester: 0.0%
Delaware: -5.0%
Burlington: -3.4%
New Castle: -2.3%
Camden: -3.4%
Gloucester: -3.4%
Salem: -6.2%
Note: Each county is extruded by its average change in house values during 2014 Q4
in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other counties.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median Regional House Price v. Indexed Regional House Price
$250,000
$200,000
Median Price
Indexed Price*
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$0
*Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Median House Price by County: 1980-2014
$400,000
New Castle
Mercer
$350,000
Burlington
Camden
$300,000
Gloucester
Salem
$250,000
Bucks
Chester
$200,000
Delaware
Montgomery
$150,000
Philadelphia
$100,000
$50,000
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
$0
Number of Regional House Sales per Quarter: 2005-2014
Q1
25,000
Q2
Q3
Q4
20,000
Qtly. Average
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2005
2006
2007
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number
of Regional
Sales
2005-2014
Center
City
HouseHouse
Sales
in 2014
Q4
with Price>=$1m
250
Q1
Q2
Q3
200
Q4
Qtly. Average
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Philadelphia Region House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Bucks County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Montgomery County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Chester County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Delaware County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
New Castle County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Mercer County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Burlington County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Camden County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Gloucester County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Salem County House Sales in 2014 Q4
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
+$1 Million Dollar House Sales in 2014 Q4
This map shows the location of homes that
sold for 1 million dollars or more in 2014 Q4.
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Region Houses Listed For Sale:
Inventory v. Sales Rate
60,000
20%
Source: TrendMLS
# Houses Listed For Sale
% Absorbed
50,000
16%
14%
40,000
12%
30,000
10%
8%
20,000
6%
4%
10,000
2%
0
0%
2014
2014
2014
2014
2013
2013
2013
2013
2012
2012
2012
2012
2011
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2009
2008
2008
2008
2008
2007
2007
2007
2007
2006
2006
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
%Sold = (#Sales/#Listings)
# Homes Listed "For Sale"
18%
Philadelphia Region Avg. DOM*: Houses v. Condos
140
120
HOUSES
CONDOS
100
80
60
DOM is the average "days-onmarket": the average number of days
it takes for a listed home to sell. In a
a market that is evenly balanced
between buyers and sellers, 40-60
days is considered the typical norm.
40
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
20
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Philadelphia Region Months of Supply*: Houses v. Condos
20
HOUSES
CONDOS
15
10
5
*Months of Supply is how
many months it would take to
sell off the current inventory
of listed homes, given the
current pace of sales.
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
0
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Pennsylvania Foreclosure Heat Map
1 out of every 703 homes in
Philadelphia is currently in
the process of foreclosure,
which is the same foreclosure
rate as in the previous
quarter.
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/pa
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
New Jersey Foreclosure Heat Map
South Jersey’s foreclosure
rate is currently much higher
than Pennsylvania’s.
Currently, 1 out of every 180
homes in Camden is
currently in the process of
foreclosure, followed by 1 out
of every 181 homes in
Atlantic County, 1 out of
every 191 homes in Salem
County and 1 out of every
199 homes in Cumberland
County.
Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/nj
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
Housing's Road to Recovery: %Lost v. %Recovered
20%
10%
13%
12%
0%
-7%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-16% -15%
-4% -6%
-21%
-10% -8%
-22% -21%
-24%
-16%
-17%
-21%
-15%
-17%
-24%
-27% -24%
-14% -19%
%Remaining
%Recovered
-36%
-9% -12% -17%
-18%
-24%
-60%
-31%
-13% -18% -19%
-40%
-50%
-26%
-24%
-10%
Now that the housing market's recovery appears to have arrived, this chart
shows how much house prices need to rise in each city in order to erase the
cumulative losses from the bust. The total rebound (to date) in house prices is
shown by the blue bars, while the remaining losses are shown by the red bars.
For example, the Philadelphia region's average house prices fell by a cumulative
23% from peak to trough. To date, they have rebounded by 7%, which implies
they need to rise another 16% in order to return to their pre-bust peak levels.
Source: Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. All other cities courtesy S&P/Case-Shiller.
-70%
© 2015 Drexel University | Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu
-19% -21% -20%
-32%
-35%
-41%