Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and
Electric Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market
Mr. Chandramowli Kailasam, Industry Analyst Global
Commercial Vehicles Team, Frost & Sullivan
›
1
7 major challenges to be taken into account to develop the mobility of the future
2 Global Challenges
CO2 emissions
Energy Security
3 Local Challenges
Pollution
Congestion
Parking
2 Economic Challenges – rising unemployment & trade deficit
NC7C-18
2
Is the electric car the mobility of the future?
We thought the issue was that the private car used gasoline or diesel and we made it electric.
What if the issue was that it is private?
Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 persons
NC7C-18
3
Voice of Customer Research for Customer Transportation Preferences
There is a strong potential for transit buses with alternate powertrain in many major urban centers in Asia and
Europe.
Share of Respondents Who Used
Public Transport
Voice of Customer Research, Transportation Preferences, Global, 2012
70%
High Public
Transport
60%
Moscow
Paris
Mexico City
London
50%
Cities with
Strong BRT
Potential
Seoul
Singapore
Rio de Janeiro
Tokyo
Frankfurt
New York
40%
Beijing
Jakarta
Cairo
New Delhi
San Francisco
30%
Copenhagen
Shanghai
Mixed Transport
20%
High Individual
Transport
Dubai
Sydney
Kuala Lumpur
Seattle
Los Angeles
10%
Johannesburg
0%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of Respondents Who Used Individual Transport (%)
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
4
Integrated Mobility
The HD transit buses and BRT provide a 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd capacity that can bridge the gap between
high-capacity upstream urban rail systems and low-capacity downstream transportation options.
Urban
Transportation
Puzzle
Urban
Rail
• Subways and heavy urban rail systems are
available in city centres in urban areas.
• The operating capacities are 70,000 to
120,000 passenger per hour per direction
(pphpd).
•
Conventional buses can handle
capacities in the range of 3,000 to 5,000
pphpd.
•
BRT has an ideal capacity of 10,000 to
15,000 pphpd to bridge the gap.
Transit
Bus
Car Sharing
Bike Sharing
Bicycle
Walking
• Car sharing, bike sharing and other nonmotorized transportation options emerge
critical in delivering the last-mile
connectivity.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
5
GHG Emissions in Transportation
The public transit systems rank as the most efficient in terms of GHG emission per passenger-km. Transit
buses adopting green powertrain technologies is a significant step towards improved public transit systems.
GHG Emissions in Transportation, Global, 2014
•
There is a definitive trend in reduction of GHG
emissions while moving from personal transport to
public transport.
•
Transit buses, especially those operating on hybrid
and electric powertrains, can help cities meet
stringent emission norms without compromising on
people-per hour-per direction goals.
•
BRTs running with alternate powertrains can further
reduce the GHG emissions since these buses
operate on optimal load and speed conditions and
also enable multi-modal connectivity, with hybrid and
electric transit buses providing last mile connectivity.
Rail Transit
Bus (Electric)
Bus (Natural Gas)
Bus (Diesel)
Minibus (Diesel)
Scooter (Four stroke)
Scooter (Two-Stroke)
Car (Electric)
Car (Diesel)
Car (Gasoline)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
GHG Gram/Passenger (km)
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: IPCC, Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
6
Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus Market Key Influencing Trends
The lowest pressure on existing energy infrastructure and lower emissions relative to CNG/LNG* buses will
catalyze the relevance and prevalence of H&E buses for urban mobility through the forecast period and after.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Influencing Trends, Global, 2014–2020
Urbanization and Congestion
Regulatory Environment
•
Low emission zones
•
Legislations mandating greener transport solutions
•
Low cost and quick mass transport
•
Subsidies for electric/hybrid/ alternate fuel vehicles
•
Connectivity between multiple points
in city and suburbs
•
Strict fuel efficiency targets
Energy Storage modules
Energy Security
•
Reducing dependency on energy
import
•
Adoption of renewable and
alternate energy
•
Drive towards fuel efficient
vehicles
Global Competition
•
Expansion into global markets to
increase revenue
•
Develop innovative transit solutions to
stay ahead of competition
•
Rapid technological
advancements
•
Falling module prices
•
Increased production capacity
Infrastructure development
•
Investment in charging
infrastructure
•
Preference for BRT system
•
Off-board ticketing system
*Compressed natural gas/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG).
Source: ECLAC; Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
7
Hybrid and Electric Bus –
Global Market Outlook
NC7C-18
8
Global HD Transit Bus Market—Unit Shipment Forecast
Global transit bus sales is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% on account of demand for green buses rising
from government mandates and commitments; the share of diesel powertrain will reduce to 72%.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012–2020
~278,000
CAGR = 6.4%
Diesel and Others
CNG/LNG
H&E
15%
2020 Regional Shares
80.000
13%
~168,000
28%
60.000
6%
5%
8%
9%
Units
7%
16%
14%
72%
5%
40.000
11%
89%
84%
6%
58%
20.000
84%
85%
37%
30%
0
2012
18%
30%
52%
33%
North America
76%
9%
South
America
China
India
Russia
Europe
ROW
2020
Note: Others include Bio-fuel, gasoline, ethanol, LPG.
HD - 8T and above (or) 10m and above.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
9
Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market in 2020—H&E
By 2020, the share of H&E buses is likely to increase to 15% from the current 5.5% of total transit bus sales;
China alone will account for about 50% global share.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions – H&E Bus Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2020
26%
24%
39%
~1,500
(6.2%)
~4,400
(30.1%)
~2,400
(36.7%)
61%
74%
76%
7
4
5
North America
Europe
40%
~20,800
(28.5%)
25%
34%
39%
60%
~5,400
(9.3%)
~2,200
(5.3%)
~5,000
(8.3%)
61%
1
China
75%
66%
2
Global Share
for Hybrid: 3.5%
for Electric: 3.9%
Global Share
for Hybrid: 12.2%
for Electric: 7.8%
Global Share
for Hybrid: 6.9%
for Electric: 3.9%
Russia
Latin America
Global Share
for Hybrid: 12.3%
for Electric: 14%
3
6
India
RoW
Global Share
for Hybrid: 12.3%
for Electric: 11.3%
Global Share
for Hybrid: 6%
for Electric: 3.7%
Global Share
for Hybrid: 46.8%
for Electric: 55.3%
Note: Size of ball denotes the market size by unit shipment and
(%) denotes the market penetration of ‘H&E Transit Buses’ in respective regions.
‘x’ Ranking of region as per market size of ‘H&E Transit Bus’
NC7C-18
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
10
Unit Shipment H&E Transit Bus OEMs
Yutong led the global H&E bus market, and Volvo’s global footprint enabled it to sell nearly 1,000 units.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment by OEMs, Global, 2014
Europe
0
200
North America
400
China
600
Latin America
800
1.000
ROW
1.200
Units
1.400
1.600
Yutong
Volvo
Wuzhoulong
Foton
FAW
Kinglong
Volvo is currently the
only OEM to have
representation in all key
global markets for H&E
buses.
CSR Times
Ankai
Sunwin
New Flyer
Golden Dragon
High growth in H&E bus sales has
provided the Chinese OEMs the
confidence to aggressively invest in
the technology and to rapidly foray
into capacity building.
Higer
Gillig
Daimler
BYD
ADL
BYD has establish a plant at California
and is poised to lead US electric bus
market by 2015. Uruguay has placed
the largest eBus order and it is
expected to be fulfilled though 2015.
Optare
Note: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above.
NC7C-18
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
11
Technology Definition
NC7C-18
12
Hybrid and Electric Powertrain - Definition
Pure Electric (or) Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)
Series Hybrid
Parallel Hybrid
Series-Parallel Hybrid / Dual Hybrid
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
13
Technology Trend
NC7C-18
14
HD Transit Bus Powertrain Standard
Diesel powertrain systems will be gradually replaced by alternative powertrain systems. H&E buses will
experience competition from NG buses if CNG/LNG prices fall due to the proliferation of shale gas.
Powertrain Standard Overview, Global, 2014–2020
Powertrain
Region
Diesel
Hybrid
Electric
Natural Gas
Biofuel
RoW
Market in 2014
NC7C-18
Strong Trend Towards 2020
Moderate Trend Towards 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan
15
Transit Bus Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard
Parallel hybrids are expected to strengthen it market position due to the cost advantage over other systems.
UCs and UC hybrids will gain prominence as primary energy storage systems, especially in hybrid buses.
Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview,
Global, 2014–2020
New Energy Powertrains
Region
Parallel
Hybrid
Series
Hybrid
Energy Storage Technologies
Series-Parallel
Pure Electric
Hybrid
Ni-Mh
Batteries
Li-ion
Batteries
Ultracapacitors
(UCs)
UC Hybrid
ROW
Market in 2014
NC7C-18
Strong Trend Towards 2020
Moderate Trend Towards 2020
NA
Source: Frost & Sullivan
16
Hybrid Transit Bus—Penetration by Hybrid Architecture
Parallels will dominate the global hybrid powertrain market as tough economic situation will influence buying
decisions towards low cost solutions. Top hybrid module suppliers are expected to launch a parallel system.
Market Share by Hybrid Architecture, Global, 2012–2020
CAGR = 16.9%
Hybrid Architecture
Penetration
SeriesParallel
25.7%
Series
17.9%
Series
11.6%
SeriesParallel
21.2%
Units
~26,900
~7,700
96 %
95Parallel
%
56.4%
2012
2012
84 %
83 %
Parallel
67.2%
2020
2020
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
17
Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping
Participants will increasingly focus on a parallel module with 3 major suppliers likely to introduce it by 2014.
Chinese module integrators are poised to capture significant market volume, however restricted to China.
Hybrid Module Product Mapping, Global, 2014
Allison is expected to look at vertical
integration of hybrid components to
expand its presence and increase
revenue
SeriesParallel
(Dual)
H40EP/H50EP
Hybrid Architecture
Partnerships with top Chinese bus
OEMs have propelled Eaton to global
leadership
Parallel
Parallel system
is expected to
hit the market
Eaton Hybrid
In addition to new bus
systems, ZF offers option
of retrofit in existing transit
buses
DIWA
Siemens’ will look to establish its brand as
complete hybrid system solution provider in
addition to being major sub-system supplier
Series
Allison
BAE
Eaton
Siemens
Module Suppliers
NC7C-18
Vossloh Hybrid
ELFA
HybriDrive
Voith
Vossloh
EcoLife
ZF
Source: Frost & Sullivan
18
Partial Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs—NA and Europe
Volvo is the only major participant to have hybrid system developed in-house. Allison leads the North American
hybrid transit bus market as supplier shipping most hybrid powertrain systems.
Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, NA and EU, 2014
Bus OEMs—North America
Module
Supplier
Nova
Bus
NABI
New-flyer
Gillig
Bus OEMs—Europe
MAN
Daimler
Van
Hool
Solaris
ADL
Optare
Wright
Bus
IVECO
VDL
Allison
BAE
Eaton
Siemens
Voith
Vossloh
ZF
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
19
Partial Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs—China and India
Lack of local hybrid expertise has benefitted global suppliers. In the future, as the global suppliers start local
bases, China and India can become export hubs due to low raw material and manufacturing cost.
Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, China and India, 2014
Top Bus OEMs—China
Module
Supplier
Yutong
Wuzhoulong
Foton
Golden
Dragon
India
Kinglong
Zhongtong
TATA
Allison
BAE
Eaton
Fugong
ZF
•
In China, Siemens is represented as a sub-system supplier to many of the above module integrators.
•
India is a sizable market opportunity and is expected to be predominantly a parallel hybrid market.
•
Since the Indian hybrid bus market is expected to reach a considerable volume only after 2018, and Eaton may miss the
advantage as other module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems by then.
•
In addition, Volvo, with its captive hybrid module and first mover advantage as a leader in high end transit bus market is
likely to dominate the Indian hybrid bus market.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
20
Transit Bus Cost Breakdown—Estimates
Base Price of a 12 m (40 ft) standard diesel bus is $350,000-$450,000.
Transit Bus Cost Breakdown Analysis, North America, 2014
Sub-systems
Cost (USD)
Chassis and Powertrain
$115,000-$125,000
Bus body
$105,000-$115,000
Seating Systems
$20,000-$25,000
Other Soft systems
$90,000-$110,000
Features
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Base diesel engine.(7L-9L engine)
Automatic transmission
Sheet metal body.
Two wide doors, glass windows, wind shield
Composite floors.
Seats for 40 passengers.
Passenger rails and handles for standees.
Wheel chair ramps and accessibility.
Advanced upholstery and other comfort systems.
HVAC
Lighting Systems
Telematics and Connectivity
Safety systems (ABS,ESP and Anti Collision systems)
Video surveillance
Public addressing systems
Others
$125,000-$150,000 premium on base diesel version.
$70,000-$80,000 premium on base diesel version.
Note: The indicted prices are only factory sales price. Extended warranties, spares and service support, delivery and taxes
could add to 30-35 percent on the procurement cost.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
NC7C-18
21
Region Wise Price Comparison for Transit Buses
China will feature most competitively priced hybrid/electric transit buses; prices for both conventional and
alternative powertrain propelled transit buses were found highest in TRIAD markets.
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Price Scenario, Global, 2014
Market
ROW
Conventional (Diesel & CNG)
Hybrid
$200,000–$225,000
$280,000–$340,000
$410,000–$500,000
$60,000–$90,000
$125,000–$200,000
$280,000–$350,000
$75,000–$110,000
$175,000–$255,000
$325,000–$410,000
$420,000–$580,000
$620,000–$700,000
$850,000–$980,000
$300,000–$410,000
$450,000–$540,000
$595,000–$680,000
$130,000–$180,000
$245,000–$325,000
$400,000–$500,000
$100,000–$350,000
$195,000–$500,000
$300,000–$700,000
Major Low cost markets
Electric
Major High cost markets
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
22
Hybrid Electric Subsystems – Price Forecast
NC7C-18
23
Hybrid/Electric Powertrain Component Price Forecast
While supplier-level costs for batteries and motors will decline over the forecast period, the cost of controllers is expected to rise
due to a shift in propulsive power from diesel engine to electric motor, thereby increasing the complexity of power management.
Controller
$
900-1,000
1,000-1,100
1,200-1,300
Motor
$/kW
25-30
23-27
20-25
Inverter
$/kW
30-35
28-30
24-26
Battery
$/kWh
450-500
375-425
380-330
2014
NC7C-18
2022
2030
24
Li-ion Battery Cost Breakdown
In a battery pack, the cell accounts for 60% of the cost; the cost of a Li-ion battery pack is expected to be about
$375–$425 per kWh in 2022, driven by economies of scale and sourcing strategies.
Hybrid and Electric Truck Market: Battery Cost
Breakdown, Global, 2014
•
The average energy density of EV batteries is 100-150
Wh/Kg. However, energy density improvements by a
factor of 4-10 are expected over the next 10 years.
Some battery manufacturers expect energy density to
increase to 300-350 Wh/Kg by 2030.
•
The cell accounts for more than 60% of the cost in the
battery pack. With the mass production of EVs, cell cost
is anticipated to decrease by 70% if production volumes
reach 50 million Li-ion cells.
Others
18%
Logistics
3%
Cell
60%
Labor
3%
BMS
16%
Hybrid and Electric
TruckVehicle
Market:
Cell Cost Breakdown,
Electric
Market
Breakdown of CellGlobal,
Material2014
, North America, 2011
Key Participants, Global, 2014
Regions
Anode
10,7%
Key Participants
XALT Energy, LG Chem, Johnson Controls,
Inc. (JCI)
Cathode
48.8%
Electrolyte
23,4%
XALT Energy , LG Chem, Magna
BYD, Wanxiang EV, LG Chem
Others
10,2%
Separator
6,9%
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Dow Energy Materials; Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
25
Li-ion Value Chain Analysis
Value chain integration is expected to develop in the medium- to long-term, with Tier I suppliers expanding their
portfolio.
Value Chain Analysis for Li-ion Battery, Global, 2012–2020
Materials/
Components
Cells
Modules
Battery
Pack
Integration
Use
Recycling
CP likely to remain component
• Short Term: Requires advanced chemical engineering.
• Long Term: CP with strong supplier base venture out to cell
assembly
Chemical Co./
Component
Producers
(CP)
•
Tier I
Suppliers
•
Drive scale
Manage OEMs Battery
modules and electronics.
Very few BCM capable of designing
and producing packs
(For example, A123, NEC)
•
Battery Cell
Manufacturers
(BCM)
OEMs
Integrators/
Utilities
OEMs unlikely to produce cells in-house
• Look to secure best battery chemistry/know-how
JVs and holding equity stakes in battery cell
manufacturers is the way forward
Short Term (2012–2015)
Med/Long Term (2015–2020)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
26
Inverter—Cost and Weight Parameters
Power silicon and PCB account for 50% of inverter cost; inverter selection is dependent on motor inverter cost,
which is around 30-35 $/kW.
Inverter Cost Breakdown, Global, 2014
Microprocessors
Microproce
4%
ssors
4%
Housing
5%
Others
6%
Current research includes advancements in the power
module cooling design wherein the double-sided direct
cooling method is used (fins are located on both sides of
the chip).
•
IGBT losses can be reduced through advancements in
IGBT device structure and the use of field-stop devices.
•
DC/DC converters that can be integrated into the inverter,
sharing the cooling system, and high-voltage connectors,
will enable a compact package design with small size and
light weight.
Connectors
8%
Power
Silicon
25%
PCB
25%
Capacitors
11%
Thermal
Management
16%
Key Participants, Global, 2014
Regions
•
Key Participants
Hitachi, Siemens, Continental, Delphi, UQM
Technologies
Hitachi, Siemens, Continental, Delphi,
Infineon
Shanghai Electric Drive Co., Ltd., Hitachi,
Continental, Delphi, Infineon
Inverter Weight
Breakdown,
Global, 2014
Electric
Vehicle Market
Breakdown of Cell Material , North America, 2011
Current
Sensors
6%
Heat
Exchangers
Bus Bars
37%
7%
Capacitors
12%
Housing
15%
Power
Modules
23%
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
27
Motor Cost and Weight Parameters
Magnets account for 53% of motor cost; stator core and rotor core account for 45% of motor weight; motor cost
ranges from 25-30 $/kW.
Motor Material Cost Breakdown, Global, 2014
•
At present, PM motors use dysprosium and neodymium
iron boron PMs. These rare earth magnets are scarce, and
price volatility has forced manufacturers to explore
alternate options.
•
SR motors, based on least magnetic reluctance, are
making inroads into the electric motor market. In SR
motors, the main challenge is the size of the motor and
the noise generated due to torque production.
Others
10%
Laminations
9%
Copper
10%
Magnets
53%
Housing
18%
Key Participants, Global, 2014
Regions
Key Participants
Electric
Vehicle Market
Motor Weight
Breakdown,
Global, 2014
Breakdown of Cell Material , North America, 2011
Rotor Core
27%
Stator Core
41%
Remy, Hitachi, Cummins, UQM Technologies
Hitachi, Siemens, Cummins, ZF
Zhongshan Broad-Ocean, Jiangsu
Weiteli Motor, Wanxiang Qianchao Co. Ltd.,
Shanghai E Drive, Cummins
Shafts and
Bearings
12%
Copper
Windings
15%
Magnets
5%
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
28
Ultra Capacitors (Ucs) in Buses
NC7C-18
29
UCs in Buses—Energy Storage and Discharge Functioning
UCs are emerging as a threat to Li-ion batteries for eBus ESS. Capturing the ESS market of hybrid buses will
be short- to medium-term target for UC makers other than energy recuperation.
UC Functioning in Buses
Power Cache
for Interim
Power
Supply
Power Supply
Energy Capture
Charging as Needed
Continuous
Power Usage
(Infotainment,
HVAC,
Lighting)
Applications
(accumulators)
Peak Power
Demand/
Transient
Loads (such
as EPS, ESC)
Primary
Energy
Source
Continuous Low Power Energy to Meet
Average Power Requirements
Bus manufacturers are predominantly using the 125 volts module as major energy source for powertrain
with 48 volts module as regenerative energy storage.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
30
UCs in Buses—Energy Storage Technologies Comparison
UC’s have a higher power density and a 30 to 40% cost advantage over Li-ion batteries. Though the run time is
short, UCs are ideal for eBuses in urban routes where there is a stop every few metres.
107
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Energy Storage Technical Comparison, Global, 2012
106
105
104
103
102
Batteries
(Li-ion, NiMH,
NiCd)
1
Instant recharge and discharge.
But shorter running time.
Ultracapacitors
10
x
Capacitors
Specific Power W/L
Discharge time = X (minutes)
10
100 minutes recharge =
10 minutes discharge
(But slow recharge and discharge)
Batteries
(Li-ion, NiMH,
NiCd)
High energy density (100 times the
energy of capacitors)
High power density (10 to 100 times
the power of batteries)
0
Ultracapacitors
20 x
10 x
Recharge time
1x
0.01
0.1
1
Specific Energy Wh/L
10
100
Source: www.batteryuniversity.com; Maxwell Technologies Inc.; Schneider Electric; Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
31
UC eBus—Electrical Systems Architecture
Various transient load applications and peak-power load applications can draw power from independent UCs
and help reduce loads on primary energy source, either a Li-ion battery or even an UC module.
• Energy accumulators are comprised of UCs that are connected in
series or parallel to provide surge-assistance for highly dynamic
power requirements of various applications.
Alt
Gen
Emotor
Power
Invertor
Multiinput
DC/DC
convert
or
Battery Pack
Ultracapacitor
• Applications such as electric power steering and braking do not
require a continuous source and supply of power from the battery.
These applications will draw energy from UCs.
• In the reverse operation (such as steering wheel coming back to
central position), when recuperation is possible such as when braking,
the power is restored to the capacitors partly.
Application Schematic of UC Usage by Various Applications
Vehicle System
Controller
Electric Power
Steering
Regenerative
Braking
Energy Storage
System
Management
Powertrain
Cabin Climate
Control
Infotainment
Systems
Transmission
Audio
ECU
Distributed
UC
Energy
Storage
ECU
System
UC
ECU
UC
UC
HVAC
UC
UC
ECU
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
32
UC System—Cost Split Analysis
Cell Stack, accounting for 55 to 60% product cost, is the major cost contributor to UC module. The price of UCs
is expected to reduce by 30% during the study period.
UCs System Cost Breakdown, Global, 2014
Cell Cost Breakdown, Global, 2014
Logistics
11%
Labour
8%
Packaging
24%
Electrode
48%
Separator
10%
Others
12%
Cell
58%
Electrolyte
18%
BMS
11%
• Industry has seen shift from wood to coconut shell for making powdered activated carbon as the later
contains more micropores.
• Packing carbon is the major cost driver in UCs and reducing manufacturing cost of carbon electrodes
by adopting solvent free dry process should be the industry priority.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
33
Performance Comparison Between UCs vs Li-ion Battery
A bus with UCs uses 35 to 40% less electricity compared to a bus running on Li-ion battery. Though the product
cost is comparable now, the price of UCs is expected to fall by 30% over 2012 to 2015 period.
UCs Vs Li-ion Battery, Global, 2014
Function
Li-ion Battery
Ultracapacitor
Implication for Bus Applications
Charge Time
10–60 minutes
0.3–30 seconds
Can be charged in bus stops in shorter time
Discharge Time
0.3–6 hours
0.3–30 minutes
Quick acceleration but short distance
Cycle Life
500–3,000
500,000–1,000,000
Virtually unlimited cycle life
Life Expectancy
5–8 years
10–15 years
Can be used beyond the life of bus
Cell Voltage (V)
3.6–3.7
2.3–2.75
Requires voltage balancing with batteries
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
100–200
1–10
Holds a fraction of regular battery
Specific Power (W/Kg)
1,000–3,000
1,000–10,000
Relatively small in size and less in weight
Efficiency
80–90%
85–98%
Higher efficiency makes it more greener
Cost per kw
$25–$60
$5–$35
Economical operation
Charge temperature
0–65°C (32° to 113°F)
-40 to 65°C (-40 to 149°F)
Can be used in extreme weather conditions
Discharge temperature
0–65°C (–4 to 140°F)
-40 to 65°C (-40 to 149°F)
No cold start issues
Source: www.batteryuniversity.com, Maxwell Technologies Inc., Schneider Electric
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
34
Third Generation UCs
For wide market acceptance, improving miles per charge and thereby reducing investment on number of
catenary / inductive charging stations required will be the aim for OEMs.
Third Generation UC Buses, Global, 2014-2020
Parameter
NC7C-18
Current
Target
(with third gen UCs)
Miles per charge (non a/c)
5-6 miles
25-30 miles
Miles per charge (with a/c)
3-4 miles
20-25 miles
Charge time
30-90 seconds
30 seconds
Energy density (Wh/kg)
5-6
10-12
Cost of charge station
$30,000–$35,000
$15,000-$20,000
35
Transit Buses—Cost Comparison Between the UC eBus vs Diesel Bus
Compared to a Diesel Bus, an UC eBus Can Give a Lifetime Saving of About $200,000.
UC Vs Diesel Bus, China, 2014
Parameters
UC Bus
Diesel Bus
Capital cost ($)
120,000–135,000
60,000–90,000
10% of the capital cost
-
1,800–2,200
15,000–18,000
0.10–0.13
0.32–0.37
87,600–113,880
280,320–324,120
Total (without environmental cost) ($)
197,400–233,080
355,320–423,360
Total (with environmental cost) ($)
200,000–235,680
372,320–440,360
Typical government subsidy / incentive
Maintenance cost (for 12 years) ($)
Fuel cost ($/kilometer)
Fuel cost ($)
•
•
•
•
Saving: $172,320 (minimum) –$204,680 (maximum)
The cost of about $20,000 to $35,000 to install charging stations in bus stops will be additional to bus
procurement cost.
The savings will still be significant for a UC bus. However, commissioning UC buses will be challenging
considering the shorter range per charge.
In short term, hybrid of UC with Ni-MH or Li-ion batteries should be a viable option.
Industry leaders such as Maxwell are expected to work on performance improvement points such as
supporting HVAC systems, electronic displays, doors and emergency exits to capture market.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
36
Conclusions and Future Outlook
NC7C-18
37
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Conclusions and Future Outlook, Global, 2012–2020
So What?
High upfront cost still remains a major
obstacle for rapid and comprehensive
market adoption of hybrid and electric
transit buses.
Chinese market and Chinese OEMs
emerging as major forces in the
market. European OEMs increasingly
developing global competitiveness and
will benefit more in long term.
Distinct trend of vertical integration and
Tier I supplier partnerships seen to
emerge among Western and Chinese
OEMs respectively.
Concerted efforts on the part of both OEMs and
Tier I and Tier II suppliers aimed at reducing
energy storage system and inverter/power
electronics costs is necessary to sustain and
boost market penetration. Using low-cost bus
platforms can emerge as a viable solution for
short-medium term.
Owing to sheer volume of the Chinese hybrid
and electric bus market, local OEMs have
emerged as market leaders. However, Volvo,
Daimler, MAN among others and specialized
bus makers such as Solaris hold potential to
expand global market share.
Tier I suppliers must step up virtual integration
efforts to offer global support to OEMs and offer
both module and component supply solutions
as market gravitates towards component
sourcing, among Western OEMs in the long
term.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
38
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook (continued)
H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Conclusions and Future Outlook, Global, 2012–2020
So What?
So What
Uncertainty in government funding and
incentives favouring hybrid and electric
transit buses to continue. This is
necessitating recalibration of business
models.
Growth in parallel hybrid adoption
driven by price sensitivities in both
developed and developing markets
and economies of scale gained from
truck market.
UCs can be a potential disruptive
technology in energy storage systems.
Major improvement in Li-ion batteries is not
expected in short term as R&D and product
development has slowed with major market
participants exiting the market.
Providing market-specific solutions and
maintaining good relation with local transport
authorities will be key to win in these markets.
Developing global product platforms with flexible
architecture to meet local specifications will help to
keep check on cost and respond quickly to
competition.
Price competitiveness of parallels will continue
pulling the market towards this technology. This
is gaining momentum as BAE and Allison are
gravitating towards offering parallel hybrid
solutions in their portfolios. This will bode well for
the market as it will ensure focused technology
and market growth and evolution.
Ultracaps hold the potential to disrupt energy
storage systems market and their superior power
density can threaten expensive Li-ion technology.
Li-ion and Ni-Mh technology focused OEMs and
suppliers must step up battery technology focused
R&D to reduce prices faster than before. UC
suppliers must continue improving ultracap energy
density to increase attractiveness and gain market
share.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
NC7C-18
39