THIS DOCUMENT IS THE P R O P E R T Y OF HER BRITANNIC MA J E S T Y ' S GOVERNMENT C P ( 7 3 ) 108 COPY NO 22 October 1973 CABINET P U B L I C E X P E N D I T U R E TO 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 M e m o r a n d u m b y the C h a n c e l l o r of the E x c h e q u e r 1. When w e d i s c u s s e d our public expenditure p l a n s i n J u l y (CM(73) 38th and 39th C o n c l u s i o n s ) the Chief S e c r e t a r y and I w e r e i n v i t e d t o p u r s u e b i l a t e r a l d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h our c o l l e a g u e s w i t h the o b j e c t of e n s u r i n g that the t o t a l s i n this y e a r ' s White P a p e r should not e x c e e d those we published l a s t D e c e m b e r . We h a v e now c o m p l e t e d those d i s c u s s i o n s . 2. If w e a r e to l e a v e o u r s e l v e s with r e a s o n a b l e r o o m for m a n o e u v r e o v e r the c o m i n g y e a r , w e should n o w be taking d e c i s i o n s t o cut back on the t o t a l s i n l a s t D e c e m b e r ' s White P a p e r . This i s a v i e w w h i c h i s now v e r y w i d e l y h e l d , and I a g r e e w i t h i t . It i s r e i n f o r c e d b y the i n e v i t a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e s of l a s t w e e k ' s c h a n g e s i n the p r i c e of o i l f o r , h o w e v e r that s i t u a t i o n now d e v e l o p s , w h a t h a s a l r e a d y taken p l a c e m u s t i m p l y a s e r i o u s l o s s of r e a l i n c o m e for t h i s country, and a r e d u c e d c a p a c i t y to m e e t all demands. In r e s o u r c e t e r m s the i m p e r a t i v e n e e d i s to e n s u r e that w e m a i n t a i n s u f f i c i e n t c a p a c i t y to i n c r e a s e e x p o r t s to d e a l with the b a l a n c e of p a y m e n t s and to i n c r e a s e productive i n v e s t m e n t to p r o v i d e for future g r o w t h ; and the s u c c e s s f u l handling of our p r i c e s and i n c o m e s policy requires a reasonable minimum increase in privately-financed consumption. A t l e a s t i n the s h o r t t e r m t h e r e i s the q u e s t i o n of e x t e r n a l c o n f i d e n c e i n s t e r l i n g (and the e x c h a n g e r a t e ) s o long a s w e a r e running a substantial current deficit. Our p o l i c i e s a r e t h e r e f o r e bound to b e closely watched. We cannot b y G o v e r n m e n t a l a c t i o n a l o n e halt inflation or a c h i e v e s a t i s f a c t o r y g r o w t h . But we c a n and m u s t c o n t r o l public sector spending. 3. D e s p i t e m y v i e w that w e should now be taking d e c i s i o n s to cut back on the t o t a l s i n l a s t D e c e m b e r ' s White P a p e r , I r e c o g n i s e the v e r y gj?63t d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d i n s u c h a c o u r s e , and for that r e a s o n I d o not p r o p o s e i t . What d o e s c o n c e r n m e i s the a p p r o a c h that w a s e x p r e s s e d i n Cabinet, during our c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the Stage 3 p a c k a g e , that i t m i g h t not e v e n b e n e c e s s a r y t o e n s u r e that the y e a r l y t o t a l s i n t h i s y e a r ' s White P a p e r do not e x c e e d t h o s e w e p u b l i s h e d l a s t y e a r . 1 4. S u c h an a p p r o a c h i n m y v i e w i g n o r e s the r e a l i t i e s of our e c o n o m i c p o s i t i o n and of e x t e r n a l c o n f i d e n c e , and I a m a f r a i d that I c o u l d not a c c e p t it. B e c a u s e i t m a y take s o m e t i m e to s e t t l e the d e t a i l e d s a v i n g s i n v o l v e d , I m u s t a s k m y c o l l e a g u e s for a d e c i s i o n , w h i c h c a n if n e c e s s a r y b e r e f l e c t e d in public s t a t e m e n t s about the e c o n o m y during this v e r y c r i t i c a l p h a s e , that the y e a r l y t o t a l s i n this D e c e m b e r s White P a p e r w i l l not e x c e e d , i n r e a l t e r m s , t h o s e w e published l a s t y e a r , J 5. T h i s y e a r s P u b l i c E x p e n d i t u r e S u r v e y r e p o r t , t o g e t h e r with m a j o r s u b s e q u e n t c h a n g e s , s h o w s l e v e l s of e x p e n d i t u r e c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r than t h o s e published for the s a m e y e a r s i n l a s t D e c e m b e r ^ White P a p e r , T o d o no m o r e than get b a c k t o the l e v e l s s h o w n i n that White P a p e r w i l l r e q u i r e s a v i n g s of about £ 5 7 0 m i l l i o n for 1 9 7 5 - 7 6 , and about £ 7 0 0 m i l l i o n for 1 9 7 6 - 7 7 (there i s a n e x c e s s of about £ 3 2 0 m i l l i o n for 1 9 7 4 - 7 5 a l s o , but this would b e r e m o v e d b y a l l o w i n g two s e t s of p o l i c i e s t o take e f f e c t i n that y e a r without o f f s e t s : f i r s t , t h o s e b y w h i c h w e h a v e r e l i e v e d the building i n d u s t r y o v e r l o a d i n 1 9 7 3 - 7 4 ; and s e c o n d l y c e r t a i n of t h o s e b y w h i c h m y p r o p o s a l s would m o d e r a t e e x p e n d i t u r e i n the l a t e r y e a r s ) . T h i s , with a r e a s o n a b l e p r o g r e s s i o n t o 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 , h a s b e e n the o b j e c t i v e w h i c h the Chief S e c r e t a r y and I h a v e p u r s u e d in our bilateral discussions. T h e y do not a l l o w for the outstanding additional bids which some Ministers have made. T o the e x t e n t that any of t h o s e b i d s s r e a g r e e d , further offsetting s a v i n g s would b e n e c e s s a r y . Several m a j o r i t e m s w h e r e p o l i c y i s not y e t finally d e c i d e d a r e fo.ound to m a t e r i a l i s e in any c a s e a s c h a r g e s on the Contingency R ^ e r v e ; but d e s p i t e this I p r o p o s e to r e d u c e the r e s e r v e b e l o w the l e v e l p r o v i d e d i n the P E S C R e p o r t . 6. M y p r o p o s a l s in the l i g h t of t h e s e d i s c u s s i o n s a r e shown in the t a b l e s a t A n n e x 1. T h e s e t a b l e s a l s o ahow how the t o t a l s for the p r o g r a m m e s i n l a s t year's White P a p e r , a s r e c o s t e d for p r i c e c h a n g e s now c o m p a r e both with the l a t e s t a g r e e d P E S C c o s t i n g s and w i t h the t o t a l s a s they would be after taking a c c o u n t of m y p r o p o s a l s . The broad e f f e c t of the c h a n g e s I p r o p o s e a r e b r i e f l y i n d i c a t e d in the n o t e s to the table. In s o m e c a s e s I understand f r o m the b i l a t e r a l t a l k s that the M i n i s t e r s c o n c e r n e d would be p r e p a r e d to e n d o r s e the s a v i n g s p r o p o s e d . I r e c o g n i s e that m o s t p r o p o s a l s h a v e t h e i r d i f f i c u l t i e s , but I b e l i e v e that t h i s p a t t e r n , s u b j e c t if n e c e s s a r y to m i n o r offsetting a d j u s t m e n t s , would both a c h i e v e our m a i n o b j e c t i v e and would be d e f e n s i b l e . 7. The table at A n n e x 2 b r i n g s t o g e t h e r the f i g u r e s for the p r o g r a m m e s for the p e r i o d up to 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 , showing how they w o u l d i n c r e a s e if m y p r o p o s a l s a r e adopted. I should s t r e s s that I have e x c l u d e d f r o m the p r o g r a m m e s t h e m s e l v e s a l l i t e m s w h i c h c a n l e g i t i m a t e l y be c o n s i d e r e d , at t h i s s t a g e , a s c l a i m s on the r e s e r v e , e v e n w h e r e it i s e v i d e n t that those claims will shortly materialise. 2 8. A s r e g a r d s d e f e n c e , m y p r o p o s a l s a r e that the S e c s - e t e r y of S t a t e for D e f e n c e should f o r e g o h i s c l a i m s for additions to the S u r v e y f i g u r e s (which a r e p r o v i s i o n a l for the l a s t two y e a r s ) and c o m e down b e l o w the S u r v e y l e v e l by £ 5 0 m i l l i o n in 1 9 7 5 - 7 6 , £ 7 5 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 7 6 - 7 7 and £ 1 0 0 m i l l i o n in 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 . He h a s offered to e f f e c t a r e d u c t i o n of £ 3 0 m i l l i o n b e l o w the S u r v e y l e v e l i n 1 9 7 5 - 7 6 , and to m a k e s a v i n g s on h i s planned d e f e n c e e x p e n d i t u r e sufficient to e l i m i n a t e h i s additional b i d s and c o m e down t o the S u r v e y l e v e l for the following two y e a r s , s u b j e c t to a r e s e r v a t i o n on one i t e m w h i c h could i n v o l v e a s u b s t a n t i a l amount. The figure for 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 would b e p r o v i s i o n a l pending c o m p l e t i o n and c o n s i d e r a t i o n of joint s t u d i e s now i n hand on d e f e n c e e x p e n d i t u r e i n the l o n g e r t e r m . The d e t a i l s a r e s h o w n i n A n n e x 3, i n c l u d i n g , on v a r i o u s b a s e s , the p r o p o r t i o n of G N P going to d e f e n c e . 9. A s a t i s f a c t o r y o u t c o m e i s a l s o conditional on our r e s o l v i n g a problem concerning those p r o g r a m m e s which involve current expenditure of l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s in E n g l a n d and W a l e s . The m e a s u r e s w h i c h we announced i n May r e q u i r e d r e d u c t i o n s of about £ 8 1 m i l l i o n (at 1973 p r i c e s ) i n t h e s e p r o g r a m m e s in 1 9 7 4 - 7 5 , and w e announced that the r a t e s u p p o r t g r a n t n e g o t i a t i o n s this a u t u m n would p r o c e e d on the b a s i s that these economies are being made. T h e s e r e d u c t i o n s , along with other a c c e p t e d c h a n g e s , a r e t a k e n into a c c o u n t in the S u r v e y R e p o r t and Running T a l l y f i g u r e s . B u t it a p p e a r s f r o m the f o r e c a s t s now put f o r w a r d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h the r a t e support g r a n t n e g o t i a t i o n s that, s o far f r o m ta?ung s t e p s to i m p l e m e n t our May d e c i s i o n s , l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s a r e planning to i n c r e a s e t h e i r 1 9 7 4 - 7 5 expenditure on the p r o g r a m m e s i n question. The e x c e s s e v e r the S u r v e y R e p o r t and Running T a l l y f i g u r e s i s about £ 1 4 0 m i l l i o n (or about £ 6 6 m i l l i o n o v e r the Cmnd. 5178 l e v e l ) m a i n l y accounted for by e d u c a t i o n ( £ 6 3 m i l l i o n ) , p e r s o n a l s o c i a l s e r v i c e s ( £ 4 1 m i l l i o n ) , r o a d s ( £ 2 0 m i l l i o n ) and m i s c e U a n e o u s l o c a l s e r v i c e s ( £ 1 4 million). 10. S o m e l i m i t e d part of this m a y be i n e v i t a b l e ; t h e r e i s , for i n s t a n c e , a s p e c i a l p r o b l e m o v e r h i g h e r s u b v e n t i o n s for c o n c e s s i o n a r y f a r e s (about £ 1 7 m i l l i o n ) . But w e cannot a c c e p t the r e m a i n d e r of the e x c e s s for r a t e support grant u n l e s s w e a r e t o go back c o m p l e t e l y on what w e said in May. M o r e o v e r , u n l e s s the e x c e s s for 1 9 7 4 - 7 5 i s e l i m i n a t e d , i t w i l l e n t a i l c o n s e q u e n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n the e s t i m a t e s for a l l the l a t e r y e a r s , thus r e q u i r i n g n e w offsetting s a v i n g s . I must ask therefore that the M i n i s t e r s c o n c e r n e d should join now in taking a l l n e c e s s a r y s t e p s to s e e that the spending p l a n s of the l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s on the v a r i o u s p r o g r a m m e s a r e brought i n t o l i n e with the p r o p o s a l s w h i c h I h a v e s e t out. 11. I a l s o attach further t a b l e s a s f o l l o w s : A n n e x 4: Main i n c r e a s e s and d e c r e a s e s i n p r o g r a m m e s s i n c e C m n d . 5178 w a s p u b l i s h e d showing that the £ 5 0 0 m i l l i o n s a v i n g s w h i c h I announced Oxx 21 May h a v e b e e n m o r e than offset. - 3 P- ' ­ A n n e x 5: The p r o p o s e d d i v i s i o n , for t h o s e p r o g r a m m e s w h e r e it i s r e l e v a n t , of the s a v i n g s i n A n n e x 1 b e t w e e n England, S c o t l a n d and W a l e s . To avoid d e l a y i n getting the White P a p e r p u b l i s h e d i t w i l l be i m p o r t a n t that w e should s e t t l e the g e o g r a p h i c a l d i v i s i o n of the s a v i n g s on which w e decide in these a r e a s . Conclusions 12. I a s k m y c o l l e a g u e s to a g r e e : ­ a. that the y e a r l y t o t a l s i n this D e c e m b e r ' s "White P a p e r should not e x c e e d , i n r e a l t e r m s , the c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t a l s in l a s t y e a r ' s White P a p e r , and that this d e c i s i o n c a n , if n e c e s s a r y , b e r e f l e c t e d in public s t a t e m e n t s about the e c o n o m y ; b. to m o d i f y the p r o v i s i o n for t h e i r s e r v i c e s up to 1 9 1 7 - 7 8 a s i n the t a b l e s a t t a c h e d ; c. that, s o far a s l o c a l a u t h o r i t y c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e i s c o n c e r n e d , they w i l l p r o c e e d on the b a s i s outlined i n p a r a g r a p h 10 a b o v e . A B Treasury 22 O c t o b e r 1973 4 Table 1 Annex 1 £ million 1974-75 Cmnd Crnnd 5178 19' at., S u r vie972 y 5178 re­ valued prices 1. D e f e n c e 2892 Budget 2, Other m i l i t a r y defence 3 - Overseas aid . EEC a n d o t h e r services A griculture 5* overseas 6, R e s e a r c h 1' 3245 90 industries: ( 1 ) DTI-SDD i n d u s t r i e s ( i i ) Doe i n d u s t r i e s ( i i i ) Post Office Less S h o r t f a l l Survey Survey Report and running tally 522 304 560 302 525^) 125 \ 137 138 1654 (85) 1776 1785 (92) (85) 1453 102 663 -100 1570 110 726 -100 1342 121 692 -100 1099 250 1265 280 1159 1737 . ­ 1963 14.54 1004 1367 ; prices Ch/Ex's Proposals Savings Revised Totals ( b ) -12 ( a - 301 286 T r a d e , i n d u s t r y and employment (of which Concorde) 1973 3348 ) 93 303 84 281 Councils at . 3336 . 93 303 \v,. . : : 302 525 138 . ( d ) 2 2 (b) ( b ) 1763 (68) (-17) 8. N a t i o n a l i s e d h 9. R o a d s ( ) 10, S u r f a c e T r a n s p o r t i 1 . Housing 12. M i s c e l l . Local 1325 S e r v i c e s ^ ) 1238 0 896 45 13- Law a n d O r d e r 14 ij A r t s Education etc^^ ' 3585 53 4086 396 etc^ ^ 3021 3366 17/. S o c i a l security 4999 317 321 5392 3377 5642 327 ' 321 IS, Financial administration i 9 . Common s e r v i c e s 20. M i s c e l l a n e o u s s e r v i c e s 21 . N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d 22. A d d i t i o n a l 23. reductions preceding programmes: ( i ) Maplin ( i i ) Civil Service manpower Debt i n t e r e s t 24. Contingency reserve 25. S h o r t f a l l TOTAL 99 697 in ( e ) -10 1149 * 2 1 ^ ( e ) 4I7 1963 .26^0 985 52 406O i6. Health h 1342 121 692 -100 1341 978 . 52 ( b ) -45 - 1 6 ^ 40(5 3361 ; -1.5 5629 321 ( b -6 )fe) 334 116 128 333 1 28 766 . 781 781 ' IS W: -9 -9 : 2275 500 2451 . 500 2850 -200 -200 28429 3 i 650 200 S.tJ'\: ; ;.i-'*. ilE!'.; 2850 -200 -80 -100 120 -300 3 1969 -325 31644 : Notes t o Table 1 ( a ) Unlike t h e f i g u r e s for l a t e r y e a r s , t h i s i n c l u d e s p r o v i s i o n f o r N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d and a d d i t i o n a l manpower. (b) These s a v i n g s * r e l a t e t o t h e i n t e r r u p t i o n i n t h e p l a c i n g of c o n s t r u c t i o n c o n t r a c t s i n t h e t h i r d q u a r t e r of 1975-74-, and a r e c a l c u l a t e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e v a l u e "of t h e work f o r which c o n t r a c t s were h e l d ' u p i s p e r m a n e n t l y l o s t and n o t s u b s e q u e n t l y , added t o t h e p l a n n e d programme for. l a t e r y e a r s . 1 ( c ) T h i s i n c l u d e s £35 m i l l i o n on a c c o u n t of t h e Milk T h i s assumes an i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e of m i l k i n I n p r a c t i c e i f no i n c r e a s e i s made i n t h e r e t a i l t h e y e a r , t h e d e f i c i t w i l l be about £100 m i l l i o n this. - . Fund d e f i c i t . October 197^-* price during higher than ' (d) T h i s i n c l u d e s £175 m i l l i o n f o r compensation t o n a t i o n a l i s e d i n d u s t r y .t6 c o v e r c u r r e n t d e f i c i t s . ( e ) These f i g u r e s a r e t h e r e f l e c t i o n i n 197^-75 of t h e p r o p o s a l s f o r l a t e r y e a r s made i n t h e l i g h t of T r a n s p o r t P o l i c y Review. ( f ) I n c l u d e s n o t h i n g f o r t h e l o c a l l y - d e t e r m i n e d pool.. ( g ) I n c l u d e s some minor r e d u c t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o o t h e r programmes . civil 0 *Other t h a n ( i ) t h e Concorde element i n T r a d e , I n d u s t r y and Employment, ( i i ) £7, m i l l i o n of t h e e n t r y i n E d u c a t i o n , e t c ^ , ( i l l ) £ 2 m i l l i o n of the e n t r y i n Law and O r d e r . ^ w j w i A i a r t w w j m o M ^ H gix.*-*^c. ^SECRET) and (h) Local authority current expenditure - E n g l a n d and Wales - - ­ . - The programmes shown i n t a b l e t h e Survey Report current table in col Cmnd 5178 and Running T a l l y expenditure additions 1 for as (c) in cols have not (a) and ' DES authority, below. The account 2,638.3 346.3- 341 . 8 609.8 DOE (Misc) 583.0 DOE (Roads) 349.3 13.2 . in Total figures to government in the H above of the continue The f i g u r e s reductions in the of cost the Government in the determination £80.9 of other -5.9 +14.2 603.9 586.5 332.8 14.0 +19.6 transfer rate of of has services have from b e e n made t o the by i n d i v i d u a l s agreed support grant second column i n c l u d e million. RET to t a k e for this next the effect been local the w a t e r and sewerage t o be met has 4,621.0 t h a n f o r DOE(Misc) No a d j u s t m e n t t o be t r a n s f e r r e d and 332.8 +142.5 the ratepayers, 572.3 313.2 +41.0 4,478,5 DOE(Misc) f i g u r e s - s i n c e will 2,701.0 4,554.5 table 1./ .74. 4-62.7 . -10.0 take account from (d) +0.9 + 10.0 Reduction prices (c) 13.1 -10.0 - Efficiency Survey '(b) 619.O ' 1973 2,653.7 Office adjusted for Latest forecast for Survey Report Rate Support Grant and negotiations Running Total Excess Tally ((b) -i(c)) over col (b) (a) DHSS The and 1. Cmnd.5178 revalued DE (b) local been taken into £m a t Home include revalued services who into are account year. o f t h e May 21st' Table 2 1975-76 £ million Cmnd 5178 a t 1972 Survey prices 1 1' Cmnd 5178 . re­ valued at 1973 Survey Survey Report and running tally prices Ch/Ex's ' Proposals : Savings Revised! Totals 3382 3015 101 3384 106 3432 108 -50 294 315 331 -15 316 336 359 493 122 530 406 135 135 1399 (54) 1506 (59) 1421 (70) -24 (-19) 1397 (51) 1438 1553 1490 -10 1480 125 135 152 - 152 665 -100 723 -100 .713 -100 -5 7.08 -100 1 136 1309 1267 -94 247. 1285 277 I 682 383 I878 4-35 1 173 418 1249 1469 1442 Order 941 1054 1054 -15" -14 53 4250 53 15. E d u c a t i o n e t c 1 6. H e a l t h e t c 45 3724 . 3121 3477 5094 316 5493 326 335 106 351 122 680 749 ' 0 Defence Budget Other m i l i t a r y Overseas aid EEC a n d o t h e r services I 5. 1 6. defence Agriculture Research overseas etc Councils 7. T r a d e , i n d u s t r y and empioyment (of which Concorde) 108 316 359 -10 396 135 8. N a t i o n a l i s e d Insustries: DTl-SDD i n d u s t r i e s (i) (ii) DOE industries (iii) Post Office Less Shortfall 9. Roads 1 C\ 1 w * Surface Transport 11 . Housing 12. M i s c e l l . local 13. Lav/ a n d 14. A r t s 17. S o c i a l services security IS. Financial I9. Common administration services 20. M i s c e l l a n e o u s s e r v i c e s 21 . N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d 4259 3499 5816 -61 -7 V -19 -24 326 368 .1817 .1427 1040 53 4188 3480 5792 326 368 130 130 779 779 22 . A d d i t i o n a l reductions in prededing programmes:.' ( i ) M a p i i n , ' ( i i ) C i v i l S e r v i c e m a n p ovver 23. Debt interest Contingency reserve 25. S h o r t f a l l . TOTAL 2250 2424 523 -200 523 -200 28720 31982 -14 -14 -20 -20' 2750 300 -90 2750 210 -200 -100 -300 3255 V -601 31950 Table 3 1976-77 £ million Cmnd 5178 a t 1972 Survey prices 1. D e f e n c e 3000 Budget at Cmnd 5 i7S revalued 1973 Survey Survey Report and running tally prices Ch/Ex's : Proposals — u 3368 3424 - 116 122 124 324 346 361 355 376 363 465126 500 3*99 -20 379 139 139 -2 137 1058 (7) 1154 (8) 1073 (23) -6 1067 1442 1554 160 729 -100 1512 163 700 -100 -16 + 10 -10 1367 260 1329 -138 1496 173 690 -100 1191 389 -i-45 1658 1885 1 / .84 -71 434 "1814 -20 1464 1094 56 -17 1077 4452 -88 -29 5611 3617 ' 5961 4364 3588 -35 5926 319 380 319 380 -75 3349 (prov'1) 2. O t h e r m i l i t a r y 3 * Overseas aid 4 . EEC a n d 0 t h e r services defence overseas 5* A g r i c u l t u r e e t c 6. R e s e a r c h C o u n c i l s 7. Trade, i n d u s t r y and employment (of which Concorde) M / Savings 124 -25 . 336 363 8. N a t i o n a l i s e d industries: ( 1 ) DTI-SDD i n d u s t r i e s ( i i ) DOE i n d u s t r i e s . ( i i i ) Post Office Less s h o r t f a l l 9. Roads 10, Transport 11 , H o u s i n g local 13 . Law a n d services Order 14. A r t s 15. E d u c a t i o n 16. H e a l t h I 7 . 672 - 100 1187 Surface ! 2. M i s c . 148 etc etc Social security !8 0 Financial administration 231 1 267 1 298 1527 978 . 1095 47 55 4409 3586 3857 3220 5203 312 56 ! 9 . Common s e r v i c e s 20. M i s c e l l a n e o u s s e r v i c e s 356 323 372 103 10 3 118. 126 126 12 6 21 . N o r t h e r n 68 6877 755 783 783 78 3 Ireland 22. A d d i t i o n a l r e d u c t i o n s in p r e c e d i n g programmes: ­ ( i ) Maplin (ii) Civil Service manpower 23. Debt interest 24. Contingency 25. Shortfall TOTAL reserve -14 -14 -20 ­ -20 2225 502 2397 502" 2650 400 -100 300 -200 -200 -200 -100 -300 28879 32183 - 32883 2650 -741 32142 £ million 1977-73 Crnnd 5178 a t 1972 at - Cmnd 9. 3424 Budget Other m i l i t a r y 3. Overseas defence 133 381 aid EEC a n d o t h e r services 5- A g r i c u l t u r e 6. Research Survey SurveyReport and running tally 5178 reSurvey . valued prices 1, D e f e n c e 1973 overseas . " etc Councils 7. Trade, i n d u s t r y and employment (of which Concorde) prices Ch/Ex'3 Proposal^ Savings Revised Totals -100 3324 -30 133 351 \ 416, 400 -20 416 380 143 -4 139 97 9755 -21 95 9544 1577 185 676, -100 1398 -21 . +10 -15 155 15566 -21 1 -100 I 187 ^89 + 60 449 1856. -72 1784 1569 -20 , 1549 1 120 (4) 8, N a t i o n a l i s e d industries: ( i ) DTI-SDD i n d u s t r i e s ( i i ) DOE i n d u s t r i e s ( i i i ) P o s t OJffice Less s h o r t f a l l 9. Transport Housing 13 , Law a n d r , . 12. M i s c . l o c a l 1/ 1 a . Roads 10, S u r f a c e ! !,. services Order 1137 61 Arts 15. E d u c a t i o n e t c 16. H e a l t h e t c 17. S o c i a l . - security iS, Financial 19. Common administration services 20, M i s c e l l a n e o u s services 21 . N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d 22. A d d i t i o n a l r e d u c t i o n s in 4641. 3743 - 6109 interest 24. Contingency r* reserve Shortfall TOTAL 60 . -37 4541. 3706 -35 6074 319 410 319 410 130 130 301 801 -II - preceding programmes: ( i ) Maplin ( i i ) C i v i l S e r v i c e manpower 23. Debt -17 -1 -100 661 -48 -48 -20 -20 2600 400 -200 -100 -300. 33673 -942. 2600 500 32731 EXPLANATORY NOTES ON PROPOSED SAVINGS 1,. Defence Budget" See p a r a g r a p h g of t h e main p a p e r and Annex 3* 2* O v e r s e a s Aid " ' . - ' * The p r o p o s e d c u t s a r e i n my view c o m p a t i b l e with our obligations. - ----- -. n -197^-75 - international £million 1975-76 -15 1976-77 -25. , 1977-78 . -30 ; ' A f u r t h e r saving o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l , support a d d i t i o n a l to the c o n t i n u i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h e m e a s u r e s u n d e r t a k e n i n May s h o u l d be p o s s i b l e from p r o d u c t i o n g r a n t s and s u b s i d i e s . ' ^ o - -10 -20 Eesearch. Councils . -20 -. - T h i s could be a c h i e v e d i f t h e S c i e n c e Budget grew a t 2 p e r c e n t a y e a r i n s t e a d of a t 3pe3? c e n t 0 5. Trade and The following for Trade changes and (i) Industry Selective contingency million ( i i ) and have to introduced to the subsidies If Public large to after 1974-75 call on 1977-78. and for the probable This £20 later changes reduces will - million be for Board i n give such to as which would be Without taken l a t e r , potential air­ \. this secured limitation Contingency Reserve. these it follows: -6 savings be and assistance a n d R&D, i n c l u d i n g % on the 1976-77 Reserve. reductions the continuing Decisions and meanwhile savings in it the -19 Industries £175 to 16 a i r c r a f t . fall Tables presentational Paper. compensation to of of For Coal on space -5 reflect White the decided R&D, g i v e claims -17 restraint State 1977-78 -15 Industry. Contingency indicate however, Expenditure made f o r Forecasts 1976-77 -2 savings k -5 be p o s s i b l e Nationalised of r e d u c e d by expenditure. National later production to project, this is 1976-77 for anticipation made i n the on the The t a b l e s could be not is and aerj-engine from l i m i t i n g on t h i s to Minor I there it a charge Other. Concorde. in The p o t e n t i a l programme Grants. Coal current 1977-78. will to no p r o v i s i o n i i s craft million 1975-76 reasons ( i v ) Secretary by: Assistance be £25 limit 1974-75 will this been smoothed figures ( i i i ) for Development years the Assistance. reserve 1975-76 for Regional be with the Industry. National the h a v e "been a g r e e d special the in assistance. nationalised 1974-75; a charge on the (SECRET) P r o v i s i o n has industries for price any f u r t h e r compensation contingency reserve. been 1^0 c w fx NATIONALISED INDUSTRIES ( i ) The p r o p o s e d s a v i n g s on E l e c t r i c i t y , G a s , S t e e l , Airways and A i r p o r t s c o u l d be a c h i e v e d by t i g h t e r e s t i m a t i n g , and p r u n i n g .of l e s s e s s e n t i a l i n v e s t m e n t . £ million" .1974-7.5 1975-76 -10 1976-77 ' 1977-78 -16 -21 . ( i i ) P o s t s , The M i n i s t e r of P o s t s and T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s i s prepared t o accept the following reductions. . - -5 -10 -15 ­ .(iii) B r i t i s h Railways. The f o r e c a s t s now allow.£175-185 m i l l i o n a year for the B r i t i s h Rail d e f i c i t , implying a sub­ s t a n t i a l f u r t h e r c l a i m t o be met' from t h e c o n t i n g e n c y r e s e r v e . of t h e p r o p o s e d s w i t c h from r o a d t o r a i l and from p r i v a t e t o p u b l i c urban t r a n s p o r t . (See ..also t h e n e x t two i t e m s v ) +10 +10 \ 7" Qojz&jlc Major o f f s e t t i n g s a v i n g s on r o a d s change i n t r a n s p o r t p o l i c y . --10 -94 ' -158 ' 0 a s p a r t of t h e same -211 8" Surface T r a n s p o r t . A d d i t i o n a l expenditure proposed f o r both i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and f o r r e v e n u e s u p p o r t of u r b a n p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t , a s a f u r t h e r p a r t of t h e t r a n s p p r t p o l i c y p a c k a g e . " t +21 +J5 4-45 +60 9o Ilouoirig * - - The r u n n i n g t a l l y f i g u r e a r e f l e c t l a r g o e s t i m a t i n g i n c r e a s e s i n . - , - - s u b s i d i e s and e x p e n d i t u r e on i m p r o v e m e n t s , . The p r o p o s e d : ^.V - ' ' r e d u c t i o n s a r e made up a s f o l l o w s : . ,' \ V i - / *: : ' - ' . - .... . ; ; ' ' ' '' - - [Lending t o H o u s i n g Associations - ' * - £ ' ' - -V­ million '". -19W7.5 " 1975-76* -1976-77 '. J . - : ^ ;; 4977-78 .' . - * ^ . ' r -. Reduce s t a n d a r d r a t e of improvement g r a n t She.first of t h e s e p r o p o s a l s h a s b e e n c o n d i t i o n a l l y - a g r e e d b y t h e i Environment S e c r e t a r y , , . .- ; . i ­ . i ; tOo Miscellaneous Local i .! i ­ Services A p r o p o s a l , t o r e d u c e t h e r a t e of g r o w t h i n e x p o n d i t u r o on w a t e r "and- sewerage h a s boon a c c e p t e d ' i n p r i n c i p l e hy t h e Environment.: ! -!" Secretary, " - ". . .. - .'. 1975-76 -15, - ' : * '; 1976-77 .1977-78 " -20 -20 '. :\ "­ :' . .j "' ] : r­ ' . . -I The s a v i n g shown f o r 1974-75 would r e s u l t from a l l o w i n g t h e ' e f f e c t s of t h e i n t e r r u p t i o n of s t a r t s i n 1973-74. t o c a r r y t h r o u g h , ' ' \ . " - : . " - i - '7: i 5 . . . ... ; : 1974-75 - . -r H \V;!^,X'' E^-RE La^jOlid Order; . . £ million 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-7-3 More r e a l i s t i c f i g u r e s of p r o b a b l e p c l c e r e c r u i t m e n t would r e d u c e t h e p r o v i s i o n made w i t h o u t i m p l y i n g any p o l i c y c h a n g e . Cuts i n b o t h t h e p r i s o n b u i l d i n g programme and i n c u r r e n t p r i s o n s e x p e n d - ­ i t u r e s h o u l d be p o s s i b l e g i v e n t h e l o w e r f o r e c a s t of t h e p r i s o n population, The t o t a l s a v i n g s shown above would a l l o w f o r an i n c r e a s e of £2 m i l l i o n a y e a r . f o r t h e Urban Programme. The n e t s a v i n g s i n 1974-75 a r e t h o s e w h i c h would a r i s e i f t h e m e a s u r e s t o r e l i v e t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y o v e r l o a d t h i s year, were l e f t t o take t h e i r course without o f f s e t t i n g a d d i t i o n s later,; small savings from t h e some s o u r c e would c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e f i g u r e s shown above for l a t e r y e a r s . ' . ,. -. .; 5 12. A r t s . ­ ' M o d i f i c a t i o n s c o u l d be made i n t h e n a t i o n a l museum b u i l d i n g p r o ­ 5 gramme and i n t h o A r t s C o u n c i l s c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e t o r e d u c e t h e p r e s e n t r a t e of growth of 10 p e r :1.3 t Education e t c , . cent: - The p r o p o s e d r e d u c t i o n s would i m p l y : . . ( i ) r e d u c i n g c a p i t a l programmes: t h e f i g u r e s below i n c o r p o r a t e . t h e c a r r y f o r w a r d of s a v i n g s t h a t would flow from t h e d e f e r ­ rnent of b u i l d i n g s t a r t s . i n 1975-74; f o r 1976-77 and 1977-73 t h e y i m p l y i n a d d i t i o n r e d u c i n g t h e improvement e l e m e n t i n t h e b u i l d i n g programmes f o r p r i m a r y and s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l s ( n o t a f f e c t i n g t h e p r o v i s i o n f o r b a s i c n e e d s ) , and s l o w i n g down t h e programme f o r p o l y t e c h n i c s and o t h e r c o l l e g e s of f u r t h e r education: . ; (ii) level . - V on c u r r e n t - the teachers and -21 expenditure, cut ( e g by s l o w i n g -38 of down the continuing £25 m i l l i o n the growth for net - but 1974-75 introduction of - '-25 , ' of a the in-service expenditure SECRET in at ^27 on reduced 2 1 May p a c k a g e ­ training leisure for f a c i l i t i e s , r e d u c i n g t h e r a t e of improvement i n r a t i o s and i n n o n - t e a c h i n g c o s t s : 1974-75 - - ( i i i ) (now (the each 1975-76 -20 1976-77 -20 ' 1977-76 -20 staff/pupil . . J on s c h o o l m e a l s , d e c i d i n g t o i n c r e a s e t h e p r e s e n t c h a r g e 12p) try 1p and 2p a y e a r a l t e r n a t e l y from J a n u a r y 1975 f i r s t i n c r e a s e ) , Subsequent i n c r e a s e s t a k i n g e f f e c t i n s u b s e q u e n t September; -21 -33 -43 ( i v ) on U n i v e r s i t i e s . h a l v i n g t h e s u p p l e m e n t a r y g r a n t s o t h e r ­ w i s e p a i d t o compensate them f o r t h e e r o s i o n of t h e i r q u i n ­ Z q u e n n i a l r e c u r r e n t g r a n t s b y c o s t " i n c r e a s e s i n 1973--7 !- and w i t h h o l d i n g a l l s u p p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h e equipment g r a n t s . -9 o it- * RET -10 -10 14. Health e t c . ( i ) r e d u c i n g t h e growth r a t e of " h o s p i t a l c u r r e n t from 55" V q : c expenditure c e n t t o 3"?; p e r c e n t a y e a r : -1975-76 -4 - 1976-77 -9 1977-73 -14 ( i i ) sorae r e d u c t i o n i n r e c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e on p e r s o n a l social services: , -5 ; -5. - 5, ( i i i ) sorae d e l a y i n c a p i t a l schemes ( c o n t i n u i n g s a v i n g s from t h e s p r e a d i n g f o r w a r d of "building s t a r t s from 1975-74 would count a g a i n s t these s a v i n g s ) : .5 1974-75 -1975-76 (a) h o s p i t a l s : . ) ( b ) o t h e r h e a l t h o.nd ( personal social y services ( 15* Social .. . 1976-77 1977-73 -10 -10 - ^ - 8 "-10 " Security S a v i n g s would i n v o l v e : ( i ) an e s t i m a t i n g r e d u c t i o n i n e x p e n d i t u r e on t h e allowance: .-8 ' -19 -19 attendance -19 ( i i ) e n d i n g t h e payment of f l a t - r a t e unemployment b e n e f i t t o suspended w o r k e r s i n t h e f i r s t week of a b s e n c e from work: ;.) - 5 Ifliili fill ( i i i ) r e d u c i n g E a r n i n g s - R e l a t e d Supplement on t h e l o w e r e a r n i n band from 233- p e r c e n t t o 30 p e r c e n t : -11 -11 16. MA PL IN The f i g u r e s assume t h e f o l l o w i n g r e d u c t i o n s as a r e s u l t of on opening d a t e l a t e r t h a n ' 1 9 3 0 : ' - ' . ' . - : - MOD e x p e n d i t u r e ". TOTAL - £m ( 1 9 7 3 . s u r v e y p r i c e s ) 197^-75 - -1975-76 DOE e x p e n d i t u r e ., (V. nil. MDA . New Town.'. . P o r t s ) '. DTI e x p e n d i t u r e (Aviation) ' . - 8 -12 . ; ' - - 1 - 9 1 - 1976-77 1977-78 - 9 ,", !\\ ' . -31 - k . -17 - 2 - 1 -1V -14 -48 ANNEX 2 TABLE SHOWING FIGURES AS THEY WOULD BE IE ALL CHANCELLORSPROPOSALS ACCEPTED : 197374 Defence Budget Other m i l i t a r y defence Overseas a i d EEC and o t h e r o v e r s e a s services Agriculture etc Research C o u n c i l s Trade, i n d u s t r y and employment Nationalised i n d u s t r i e s Roads Surface T r a n s p o r t Housing Kisc. l o c a l s e r v i c e s 1 ot.r r\ C\-r*A o - p Arts Education e t c Health e t c Social Security VP *i o -n n n l orlrvi-iv-\*i o f n o - l - i Common s e r v i c e s Misc. s e r v i c e s Northern I r e l a n d Addition a1 r e d u e t i ons in p r e c e d i n g programmes: ( i ) Maplin ( i i ) Civil Service manpower Debt i n t e r e s t Contingency r e s e r v e ^ Shortfall 0 TOTAL £ m i l l i o n a t 1973 Survey p r i c e s j Approx Av. p e r av, p e r - c e n t age . centage increase in i n c r e a s e c o s t terms ] 9 7 7 i n c o s t 1972-73 to 1975- 1976­ 78 terms 1 9 7 6 - 7 7 , as 76 77 1973-74 published in to . l a s t Decembers 1 9 7 7 - 7 8 ­ White Paper 197475 ) 3336^ 3382 3324 1.0 133 351 10.4 -2.4 12.6 5.5; 4.2 86 93 108 279 303 316 3349 124 336 302 359 396 365 379 416 .580 135 137 139 1397 2240 1067 2259 954 1173 1191 418 1817 1427 1040 434 1814 1464 53 4188 3480 5792 56 4364 3588 5926 326 368 - 130 319 779 294 613 '141 525 138 . 2012 1763 1875 1140 376 2055 1149 417 21 64 1963 1367^ ' 1341 978 949 58 52 3939 4015 3361 3269 5514 5629 b ) . 1077 2312 1187 449 1784 1549 1120 60 4541 3706 6074 8.8' * -11 . 1 -4.7 -0.7 0,7 -15.l * ( a 4.7 1 .5- ) ( a ) -5.5 4.8 ' J ' J 4.5 -4.6 -4.2 -3.2 4.3 6.1 3.7 6.2 1 .6 5V1 5.1 4.7 5.0 4.8 2.4 * * r\ vn 325 321 307 -333 128 781 128 760 - -9 (already ) (allocated ) 2850 2950 '­ 120 -400 -300 2750 31644 31950 31474 -14 -20 210 -500 806 5.4 130 1 .6 3.1 783 801 1 .9 0.1 -14 -48 - -20 2650 -20 2600 360 -3Q0 380 126 . 1 .3 319 410 290 -300 32142 -32731" 1.8^ -5.6 2 5 (a) (a-) E x c l u d i n g i n v e s t m e n t grants. ()))- S a v i n g s of £ 3 5 m i l l i o n i n t h e l o c a l l y - d e t e r m i n e d pool have been allocated to t h i s item, (c) The f i g u r e s a p p e a r i n g i n t h e 1973 White P a p e r on p u b l i c e x p e n d ­ i t u r e f o r t h e Contingency R e s e r v e would be t h e a g g r e g a t e s of two u n p u b l i s h e d components, namely, t h e f i g u r e s i n t h i s l i n e p l u s the e l e m e n t i n c l u d e d i n t h e S o c i a l S e c u r i t y programme f o r u p r a t i n g s of b e n e f i t s , beyond c o m p e n s a t i o n f o r p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , thus: ' * . . . ; ,, . ­ - ' 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 Not to be (For s o c i a l (security (upratings published ( . (For g e n e r a l (purposes To be p u b l i s h e d ' £ million 1976-77 1977-78 30 140 260 390 120 210 290 360 150 350 550 750 (d) I n c l u d e s p r o v i s i o n f o r N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d and a d d i t i o n a l " manpower, not included in l a t e r y e a r s . ' ­ ( -y S - Defence Budget -. GNP C o m p a r i s o n s v J ' . (A ) .% G^P 1 9 7 2 - -73 3160 5,5 3160 1 9 7 3 - -7k J 1 9 7 V -75 330U 5.7 3 3 GO. 32U5 5.1 - 3302 1 9 7 5 - -76 33.8U 5.2 0 0 3368 (provi­ sional) 5.1 . (E) -(D) Previous M i n i s t r y of Defence Bid .(rounded) Chance11o r ' s P r o p o s a l s (3) % GNP % GNP £m 1 9 7 6 - -77 (c) . (B) Provision in 1 9 7 3 PESO Report (2) , Cmnd 5178 Revalued 19 / 3 Survey Prices % GNP - £m , Hi . All figures (2) Based (3) Represents exclude 5.5 . 3160 5.5 5.7. 5.2 3300 5.7 1 3281 3281 5.7 3320 5.2 3290 5.7 5.2 3290 5.2: 3U32 .5.3 3k85 3382 5.2 3402 5.2 3k2k '5.h 5.1 3565 .5.4 3U2U 5.1 5.0 3660 5.4 3k2k 5.0 3U2U (provi­ sional) o n Cmnd 5 1 7 8 a d j u s t e d for (k) Defence subsequent in provision 1975-76 ­ £m % GNP 3160 provision f o r Northern I r e l a n d reductions .Lm 5.5 - 33U9 ­ 5.0 ' 332U kis 50 policy and a d d i t i o n a l changes. i n 1 9 7 3 PESC R e p o r t 1976-77 75 Manpower. of: 1977-78 100 e x p e n d i t u r e b y o t h e r E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s ( 1 9 7 2 ­ NATO d e f i n i t i o n ) * ­ % GNP ^ Prance k .2 - .. . Germany 3.9 ­ NATO E u r o p e a n a v e r a g e U.3. ( i n c l u d i n g UK) 3 . 9 ( e x c l u d i n g UK) . 1 316O Notes: (I) Defence Secretary s Offer 5.5 (provi­ sional) 1 9 7 7 ­ -78 ) (firm) (provi­ sional) 0 az&is Annex 4 ' Changes and the The Command 5 1 7 8 The l a t e s t between i ,qt December's present position. provision position £500 m i l l i o n cuts Running T a l l y - of is figures Major 1973 of the 1974-75* revalued, Survey Report 21 May) £31,969 The m a i n c o m p o n e n t s Cmnd 5178 - for a s (Cmnd,5178) White Paper n i s £31,644 (which i n c o r p o r a t e d subsequently amended by million. the the million. difference and t h e l a t e s t of -f-£325 position are million between the : Increases Social Security Defence Budget Revenue support : 1973 uprating 4-252 ( ) +I63 a to nationalised industries +2S5 +211. Housing Debt Interest ' - *399 +1310 Offset by ,; 21 May r e d u c t i o n s Contingency Reserve : I n Cmnd 5178 500 In Survey Report 200 Agriculture, Trade, -528 Fisheries Industry Nationalised -300 and F o r e s t r y -42 and Employment -46 Industries - capital investment -118 -1034 Other - (a) Mainly policy , ^ ' and e s t i m a t i n g changes (net), "' : Northern - Ireland Purchasing - : ^ t 3 25 I ; recruiting (Repayment) Shoeburyness, * ; abolition S e r v i c e s Vote ; and of AWTHEX 5 - ; ' ' C h a n c e l l o r ' s p r o p o s a l s f o r s e r v i c e s , w i t h i n the, \ . ' r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e S e c r e t a r i e s of S t a t e f o r S c o t l a n d and. Wales t I £ million // TOTAL IJationlised i n d u s t r i e s . England^ ­ 1975-76 -15 1976-77 1977-78 -16 -26 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 -10 -94 -15 -15 -25 Roads Reusing Scotland -211 -10 -83 -125 -200 -61 -57 -138 ' -0.5 -1. -1.5'. ­ -6 -8 -6 Wales ­ -; - -5 -5 -5 " 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 ' Miscellaneous local . -71 -72 -67 -67 -3 . -3 ' -3 -1 -1.5 -1.5 services -26 197^-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 -15 -20 -20 -25 -12.5 -17 " 7 1 -1 - . -0.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -i -0.3 -0.1 -.1 -2 . -.. -1 . 5 -1 . 5 Law and o r d e r 1-974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 - Health -U .11 Education e t c . : -7 -6.7 -1 -144 ­ - -17 -16 -17 -15 -45 -71 -37 -62 -79 -89.5 -6.5 -6.5 -14.7 -1.3 -1 -3 -0.5 -1 -1 -2 -9.1 -20.1 -23.5 -25.5 -14.0 .- ­ 197^-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 -88 -100 -4.5 -6 -1.5 -2.5 -4.5 -4.5 etc 16" 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 . ! . ) -19 -29 -37 -17 -25 -31 -104 -93.4 TOTAL of above ' 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 -- . . -309 -399 -503 -280 -362 -462.5 " i n c l u d e s p r o p o s a l s f o r s e r v i c e s a d m i n i s t e r e d on a G r e a t B r i t a i n or England and Wales b a s i s -9.5 -15.0