(c) crown copyright
Catalogue Reference:CAB/129/66
Image Reference:0001
5
CONFIDENTIAL
COPY N O .
C. (54) 51
10TH F E B R U A R Y , 1954
CABINET
CABINET o r p ,
RECORD COPY
TOBACCO SMOKING AND CANCER OF THE LUNG
M e m o r a n d u m by the M i n i s t e r of Health
I c i r c u l a t e for the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of m y c o l l e a g u e s the attached
draft q u e s t i o n and w r i t t e n a n s w e r , Which I p r o p o s e to give in the House
of C o m m o n s on F r i d a y , 12th F e b r u a r y .
It h a s b e e n a p p r o v e d by the
S u b - C o m m i t t e e of the Home A f f a i r s Commivtee to which I r e f e r r e d in
paragraph 5 of C . (54) 4 7 .
The t e r m s of the l a s t p a r a g r a p h of the draft a n s w e r depend on
the r e s u l t of an approach which the S e c r e t a r y of the M e d i c a l R e s e a r c h
Council i s making to the t o b a c c o c o m p a n i e s this a f t e r n o o n .
I.M.
M i n i s t r y of Health, W. 1. ,
9TH F E B R U A R Y , 1954.
DRAFT QUESTION AND WRITTEN ANSWER
QUESTION:
To a s k the M i n i s t e r of Health whether he h a s
now r e c e i v e d the advice of the Standing A d v i s o r y
C o m m i t t e e on C a n c e r and Radiotherapy on the
q u e s t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s m o k i n g and
lung c a n c e r , and whether he w i l l make a s t a t e m e n t .
ANSWER:
Yes S i r .
The Standing A d v i s o r y C o m m i t t e e on
Cancer and Radiotherapy have had this m a t t e r
under c o n s i d e r a t i o n for t h r e e y e a r s .
As a
r e s u l t of p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , a panel
under the c h a i r m a n s h i p of the G o v e r n m e n t A c t u a r y
was s e t up in 1953 to enquire and r e p o r t .
I have now been a d v i s e d by the C o m m i t t e e in the
following t e r m s :­
Having c o n s i d e r e d the r e p o r t of the panel under the c h a i r m a n s h i p
of the G o v e r n m e n t A c t u a r y on the s t a t i s t i c a l e v i d e n c e of an a s s o c i a t i o n
b e t w e e n smoking and c a n c e r of the lung, and having r e v i e w e d the other
e v i d e n c e a v a i l a b l e to t h e m , the C o m m i t t e e a r e of opinions­
(1) It m u s t be r e g a r d e d a s e s t a b l i s h e d that t h e r e
i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s m o k i n g and
c a n c e r of the lung,
(2) Though t h e r e i s a strong p r e s u m p t i o n that the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s c a u s a l , there i s e v i d e n c e that the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s not a s i m p l e one, sincei$ , :
(a) the e v i d e n c e in support of the
p r e s e n c e in t o b a c c o s m o k e of a
c a r c i n o g e n i c agent c a u s i n g c a n c e r
of the lung i s not y e t c e r t a i n ;
(b) the s t a t i s t i c a l e v i d e n c e i n d i c a t e s
that it i s unlikely that the i n c r e a s e
in the i n c i d e n c e of c a n c e r of the lung
i s due e n t i r e l y to i n c r e a s e s in s m o k i n g ;
(c) the difference in i n c i d e n c e b e t w e e n
urban and r u r a l a r e a s and b e t w e e n
different t o w n s , s u g g e s t that other f a c t o r s
m a y be o p e r a t i n g , e go a t m o s p h e r i c
pollution, occupational r i s k s
tt
e
(3) Although no i m m e d i a t e d r a m a t i c fall in d e a t h ­
r a t e s could be expected if s m o k i n g c e a s e d , s i n c e
the d e v e l o p m e n t of lung c a n c e r m a y be the r e s u l t
of f a c t o r s operating o v e r m a n y y e a r s , and although
no r e l i a b l e quantitative e s t i m a t e s can be made of
the effect of smoking on the i n c i d e n c e of c a n c e r of
the lung, it is d e s i r a b l e that young people should be
warned of the r i s k s apparently attendant on e x c e s s i v e
smoking.
It would appear that the r i s k i n c r e a s e s with
the amount s m o k e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y of c i g a r e t t e s .
I a c c e p t the C o m m i t t e e ' s v i e w that the s t a t i s t i c a l e v i d e n c e
points to s m o k i n g a s a factor in the production of lung c a n c e r , but I
would d r a w attention to the fact that t h e r e i s s o far no f i r m e v i d e n c e of
the w a y in which s m o k i n g m a y cause lung c a n c e r or of the e x t e n t to
which it d o e s s o .
R e s e a r c h into the c a u s e s of lung c a n c e r h a s b e e n
p r e s s e d forward by the Government and by other a g e n c i e s in v i e w of
the i n c r e a s e in the i n c i d e n c e of this d i s e a s e and we m u s t look to the
r e s u l t s of its v i g o r o u s pursuit to d e t e r m i n e future a c t i o n .
I should a l s o t e l l the House that I have b e e n approached by
the t o b a c c o c o m p a n i e s who have offered to give £ 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 for r e s e a r c h
into t h i s p r o b l e m .
They h a v e , on m y a d v i c e , a g r e e d to put t h i s m o n e y
at the d i s p o s a l of the M e d i c a l R e s e a r c h Council. /