CLIMATE CHANGE
The Global Experiment Unfolds
Connie Millar
Sierra Nevada Research Center
Albany, California
Paleo-scientists are accustomed to
thinking about climate change and
its effects on ecosystems…
BUT…
Decreases in
Arctic Ice
Retreat of
Glaciers
Worldwide
Franz Joseph
Glacier, New
Zealand
1951
1964
Increases in Extreme Weather
& Ecological Events
Katrina, 2005
N Rockies, MT, 2003
British Columbia, 2004
Novel effects on ecosystems from
rising CO2 levels
Increasing photosynthesis in shade
Increasing
acidification of
oceans
Temperature Change over
the Past 1000 Years
IPCC, 2002
Modeled Global Temperature Change
IPCC, 2002
A global experiment we
do not want to continue
WHAT CAN WE (USFS) DO?
The US Climate Change
Science Program
RELEASED NOV
10, 2005
USDA one of 13
agencies in CCSP
WHAT CAN WE (SCIENTISTS) DO?
The Consortium for Integrated
Climate Research in Western Mountains
A Grassroots Response
WHAT IS CIRMOUNT?
Consortium
WHAT IS CIRMOUNT?
Integrated
WHAT IS CIRMOUNT?
Research
WHAT IS CIRMOUNT?
Western Mountains
WHAT IS CIRMOUNT DOING?
Research, Monitoring, Education
Six Work Groups:
• Mtn Climate Monitoring
• Hydrologic Observatories
• Ecosystem Responses
• GLORIA
• Paleoclimatic Archives for Managers
• International Relations
Understanding Western Mountain Climates
Of 404 Weather Stations in
California only 6 >2500 m
Redmond 2005
8 New Mtn Met
Stations Installed
in 2005
MOUNTAINS ≠ LOWLANDS
Monitoring Trends
in WNA Glaciers,
Snow, and Water
Grinnell Glacier, MT, Glacier NP
Rapid Retreat in
Every Situation
Evaluated
Fountain, 2004
Peak snowpacks
45+ days earlier
1950-2000
Hamlet et al 2004
Stewart et al 2003
Peak Streamflows:
March +, June 1948-2002
Analyzing Widespread Forest Mortality and Fire
Æ Diebacks correspond to increasing droughts
Jemez Mtns,
NM, 2003
Craig Allen
Wildfire patterns follow decadal (PDO) +
interannual (El Niño) + seasonal climate
Annual Western U.S. Area Burned
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
hectares
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
Westerling
200,000
2004
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Evaluating Alpine & Subalpine
Vegetation Response –
“Canaries” show
surprises
GLORIA International Alpine
Plant Monitoring Project
High-elevation forests
respond in unexpected ways
FOSTERING COMMUNICATION
CIRMOUNT hosts a website, sponsors
technical conferences, conducts
workshops for resource managers…
MTNCLIM 2005, Yellowstone NP, MT
MTNCLIM 2006,
Mt Hood, OR
How is USFS National
Forest System Responding?
• LRMPs just starting to consider climate issues
Wenatchee, Coleville & Okanagan, PNW
• National & Regional Direction silent
Ecological Restoration:
A Framework for Restoring
and Maintaining
the National Forests and
Grasslands
USDA Forest Service
Prepared by the
Restoration Framework
Team
August 18, 2005
1 mention
2 mentions
Issue not
addressed
In Development
CIRMOUNT &
Sierra Nevada Research Center
Contacts: Connie Millar, Peter Stine
SNCCAP: A Project in Development
The Sierra Nevada Research
Center and CIRMOUNT are
spearheading support for a multyear project, planned as an
interdisciplinary, collaborative, scientific
assessment of climate change and its
consequences on Sierra
Nevada ecosystems
and rural communities
SNCCAP Goals
• develop 21st century climate scenarios
and variabilities
• assess eco- & social consequences
• develop scenarios, recommendations,
& guidelines
• compile databases, models, casestudies, and decision-support tools
What Can Be Done About Climate Change?
The 5 R’s:
What Can Be Done About Climate Change?
The 5 R’s:
Reduce
What Can Be Done About Climate Change?
The 5 R’s:
Reduce
Resist
What Can Be Done About Climate Change?
The 5 R’s:
Reduce
Resist
Resil(ience)
What Can Be Done About Climate Change?
The 5 R’s:
Reduce
Resist
Resilience
Respond
What Can Be Done About Climate Change?
The 5 R’s:
Reduce
Resist
Resilience
Respond
tRiage
Steps to SNCCAP
• Scoping Workshop 2006
• Climate Scenarios
• Mitigation & Adaptation
Strategies
• Demonstrations, Case
Studies, Tools