M.I.T. LIBRARIES -DE^ HB31 M415 • 1r<3 working paper department of economics OPTIMAL JOB SEARCH IN A CHANGING WORLD Lones Smith 95-3 Jan. 1995 massachusetts institute of technology 50 memorial drive Cambridge, mass. 02139 OPTIMAL JOB SEARCH IN A CHANGING WORLD Lones Smith Jan. 1995 95-3 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY MAR 2 9 1995 LIBRARIES INTRODUCTION 1. This paper explores some theoretical and economic implications of a nice asym- metry in many classic job search models, jobs at will, but can retain To make more this them whereby individuals are permitted to drop at their pleasure definite, consider the is assumed to be searching wage offers, when the While searching, she pays a for one. and fixed flow positive flow coming from some nonstationary but deterministically The (perhaps discontinuously) evolving distribution. will individual does not possess a unemployment insurance) and enjoys a cost (possibly negative, such as arrival rate of the reverse cannot occur). problem faced by an individual who must search for jobs (or 'prizes'). Suppose that job, she (i.e. How start searching again. may drop individual a job at then does she behave? Search theory as a branch of economics has solved a wealth of such problems in both continuous and discrete time, but has largely confined its attention to the steady-state theory, where quits do not occur. This paper analyzes the job search problem by supposing, just as in Van Den Berg (1990), that the wage distribution But unlike that paper, evolves in a nonstationary but deterministic fashion. I do not deny searchers the option of ever dropping a job once taken up. This restriction, while briefly justified in the context of his model, — for instance, in recent analyses of will is inappropriate for many contexts continuum agent two-sided mutual tenant-at- employment matching models with heterogeneity, such as Smith (1994a) and Shimer and Smith (1994). As it turns out, Van Den Berg's assumption that jobs cannot be dropped also conceals at least two intriguing effects that I wish to explore. For one, the identity between the decision-maker's reservation wage unemployed value of motion. As it W t fails, t and we must independently derive turns out, casual finance theory intuition Indeed, the reservation wage is an option to renew at the same local relationship Another major finding t of time, 9 t need not be, but show that in their respective laws may then be misleading. that while is W t ; W t of being namely, the flow return with This turns out to be related to the fact that price! W W between 9 and is and her average not the flow return on the Bellman value unmatched, but has an even more inviting link to no simple (or flow utility) t t exists. is necessarily a continuous function always upper semi-continuous in time. more general search models, the optimal acceptance In fact set is I a lower hemicontinuous correspondence of time. This happens to be a simple example of a very general principle underlying optimal individual behaviour in the presence of sticky state variables. The paper concludes with a simple example well-known comparative statics out some new ones that may fail in become apparent. of how some a nonstationary environment, and point Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium Member Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/optimaljobsearchOOsmit THE MODEL 2. At any given moment in time, the individual is either searching (waiting) for a prize while experiencing a flow search cost The w. c, individual can hold at most one at a time. time intervals with parameter p > 0. The wage let F t has support on [0, oo) with uniformly is 1 holding some job with wage Wage offers arrive at Poisson distribution facing the individual deterministically evolving, with time-dependent that or c.d.f. bounded F.(w) be a piecewise continuous function of time t {F t (w) \t,w finite G for fixed w. That t; is, number distribution can shift discontinuously at possibly a countable Assume H£+}. mean for fixed is further the wage of distinct times. The individual cannot search while holding a job, 2 nor is she permitted to hold more than one job at a time. But any job may be retained forever if desired, or may be freely dropped at will. 3 While drop existing jobs, for definiteness, I allow searchers the additional latitude to I do not permit them to 'drop out' of the search market altogether, and thus forego any search At any time all t, the individual seeks to maximize the expected present value of future jobs held less search costs borne, namely s; where m(s) is A strategy to is and job wage w s - t] s, m(s)ds and the expectation is taken with respect realizations. That belongs to A is, 4 t measure zero equivalence, . the individual Note that A t is A= Q K+ 1 € willing to accept or retain a job x a time-dependent sequence of acceptance sets oo)) for each time. iff its Pe-^ the income flow at time to arrival times [0, costs. (A t 1 can only possibly be well-defined up in the sense that any At that contains At on a set of times of measure zero yields the same payoff. Although a strategy might possibly also depend on whether an individual currently holds a job, an optimal strategy A* cannot. This must be true, since retaining a current job, or accepting a 1 2 new one, are identical. more generally, one could modify the model to suppose that the number of prizes she can simultaneously enjoy. Or, in the both the costs and outside options of either individual is constrained Less stringently, one could suppose that one experiences a lower flow arrival rate of job offers while matched than while unmatched. 3 lump-sum quitting costs, then reservation wages will no longer exist; that is, an have a lower 'reservation wage' than will her unemployed counterpart. This is somewhat analogous to the effect of switching costs in the multi-armed bandit, where Gittin's indices no longer exist. See Banks and Sundaram (1994). 4 This implicit restriction to pure strategies is without loss of generality, given a mild generalization of a result due to Dvoretsky, Wald and Wolfowitz (1951). If there are employed individual will THE MAIN RESULTS 3. Optimal Strategies 3.1 Let W( be the time-f (Bellman) optimal average value of being unemployed, and W (w) the analogous value with wage w > 6 hand. While would be nice to say an option, that w € A exactly when W (w) > W since quitting 'immediately' necessarily always true So say that a wage w the inequality W (w) > W agreeable time W (w) > W Then wage w called agreeable and w G A exactly when W {w) > W or W (w) = W but an -optimal strategy in t t t t at that. if t t t t t entails retaining that w= agreeable wage wage liirin^oo is , is t strictly t is t t it is . if , t t for a positive period of time. wn for some sequence follow that any (It will of strictly agreeable wages wn .) Notice further that an optimal strategy entails monotonic preferences at every instant in time: so is must w' 6 closed in Lemma I If w € .4* for all s .4* for w' R for all t. > As w. [t, t + A], then at least in the same time interval assume that all agreeable wages are accepted, .4* Hence, (Monotonicity) 1 I € The optimal strategy is A* = at time [9 t ,oo) shall refer to 9 t as the individual's reservation wage; in the t. more general model considered in subsection 3.4, a more neutral term might be the (lower) threshold. I shall soon argue that this unmatched at time (W ), Given is conceptually distinct from her flow value of being t. the determination of the threshold time path (0 t ) t in optimality, while the calculation in the reverse direction accounting. Suppose that (6 t ) next time after define O^iw) = t that 9 t will assume (or exceed, inf{s > WtH = t / 1 Finally, (W t Wt; = t The must ) J°° given. In order to is \ > 6S is if it t jumps) the in must know the I level w. That is, w}. Then w + e " WrlW " t) W-M-«') W if -^< (1) else t solve the following recursive accounting equation: pe-^-V (-c(l - e-M*-*) + e-^ s - t] f°° W {w)dF (w)) ds s s (2) Van Den Berg (1990), to be dropped. On the other hand, Van Den Berg's function uniquely exists, by means of a standard functional form of (2) fundamentally differs from that in on account of my allowing jobs proof that a continuous value contraction-mapping argument, applies here with few changes, 5 and 5 an exercise a simple exercise (W ), compute is is thus omitted. His proof, for instance, assumed stationarity after some finite time T; however, a continuous Lemma (The Value Function) 2 to (2), that is continuous and There exists a unique continuous solution 1 t we have 1 (»)-*) J Of (Ww) _ w) _ Wt ) dFt ( w ) ( 3) Average Values and Thresholds 3.2 I are now must characterize optimal behaviour, and compute (8 ) given (W ). There many approaches to this problem. For instance, one could treat (9 ) as an t t t infinite-horizon control, route much more is and use the calculus of level. This now claim the is moment will (W ), For any c the reservation t wage (W - e-^ -^Ws )/{l - e"^"')), ' w > 0, 8^ its current 1 (6 t ), t . I and given time path of aver- 0- - -Wt/P Wt--e-W w- (w*- I(t) -o t t 1 = () { , The result for # =T 6 (i, -1 oo). 0- • t) w 0- t inequality dropped at time T. -1 = t W < = oo follows from (1) t < W for allt. Moreover, t or equivalent^ f fl The (£) be at least as high as satisfies 6 1 s lim,_> -i (t) 0~ 1 (t) ambitious less -1 that a maximizing individual will drop a job paying (Reservation Wages) 1 age value functions Proof: But a that optimal behaviour yields Theorem = variations. 6 For ease of notation, define # transparent. namely the next time that the reservation wage 6t regardless (2), a continuous and differentiable function of is r (w + e-^'" = (3W + (5c-p t W or F., time. In fact, together with (1), W t a.e. differentiable. Observe that by the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus applied to of the functional form of Or (W Ht) Ht) l (t) =t >t = CO and the identity W =W t t (0 t ). Van Den Berg (1990). Next, suppose Then optimal behaviour demands that the job paying be (£) is essentially t W Hence, t = t + e"^T_t '[}Vr — t ], yielding the result for l Finally, suppose that 0~ {t) = t. By monotonicity, if w > then it must be optimal to hold the job paying w for some positive period of time, i.e. W < w + e~^s ~^(W8 — w) for some s > 0; conversely, if w < then it is strictly (£) > t. t t t better to stay unemployed, and the reverse inequality holds = linw(W - e-^ -')Ws )/(l s t t e^ 8 "*)). for all s In that case, t = > Thus, 0. W -W t t /P, by l'Hopital's rule. function on [0, T] <0> is uniformly continuous, and so a simple limiting exercise suffices to complete the argument. Van Den Berg's 'no-quitting' assumption the law of motion for (6 t ) and (W ). The t meant that he did not have to independently derive analysis that follows thus did not arise in his paper. ) In words, we the reservation wage unmatched value to the as when shall see); > for all s when weakly monotonically decreasing on Some in comes Shimer and Smith (1994), W implicitly through wage relationship t, its [t, oo), then 6 S s and falling, it is W = into play. Financial Intuition As done (ipt) = But when again a purely local relationship arises. t, later to rise higher, global optimality 3.3 so that 0~ x {t) purely local (and has a natural financial interpretation, is it is is rising, = t °° / Pe~^ f s I can define the spot market wage system ~^i)} s ds. at time t in a hypothetical spot market. Interpret An as the reservation ip t individual is always indifferent between remaining unemployed and accepting her spot market reservation wage an arbitrarily short period of time, during which she cannot search. formula explicit flow return and t W t t t the associated instantaneous capital gain of the asset 'being t unemployed', whose present value But Theorem is establishes that 1 W t /f3. ip t ^ 8 t in general. flow return with an option to renew at the same rate. It turns out that 9 t for as long as she wishes at the same wage. That is, When is that to = t, it is is > to) for fixed (for as long as she wishes). If the option then 6 t = tp t . and so 6 t = W t - If _1 (£) = oo, A I it the flow return never exercised, i.e. > ip t then the unemployed asset W the renewal option is future date, then no purely local relationship between 6 t and 3.4 in indifferent Otherwise, the renewal option has value, and so 6 forever exercised, in the case # effectively sold, is is the from may remain at time to, she about exchanging the variable return on the asset (Wt,t w= is Intuitively, this follows the fact that an individual taking a job does so knowing that she Q~ l (t) The more = W — Wt/P follows by the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. P(W /(3) = ip + VVt//? makes it clear that ^ is flow value or the ip t Rewriting this as for t . f not exercised at some W t can exist. General Continuity Result temporarily abstract away from the model discussed above, in order to derive a somewhat more penetrating u(x) to the owner, where search problem, there a; result. is Treat the jobs as prizes x providing flow utility a vector of prize attributes. For instance, in the job may be a multidimensional job characteristics space, with wage not the only consideration. Suppose that there iCR" is given a Borel space of prizes whose distribution follows a known deterministic evolution. As above, one either possesses a prize or must search for one. Observe the following simple property of the graph of the optimal acceptance sets (A* ) over time. t Theorem 2 (Lower Hemicontinuity) // the utility function continuous, and satisfies local non-satiation, then A* u nonnegative, is a lower hemi-continuous is correspondence of time. Proof: Assume c = 0, for below. Note that it is = A* > R", since u obvious that We . t For definiteness, n. 0, for that strategy must show that —Y x a sequence of prizes x n is ^ .4* suffices to it for all sequences of times W t W = (x) W So suppose that definition. t {x) W t W s W (x) > > W (x) s t W So . and s W s enough to for s close s > optimality considerations. Suppose that = < For s x. t, W let onto prize x until time for s close to and t, enough to soi£ A1n by t, Hence, x € A* tn \. W t W t > W t , tB (y) W - tn (x) (x) for all large W = definition). t enough W s (x) x n -> x yielding W > s even though x £ A* (so that x E > u. 0. By utilities —> the right side must vanish as n for y). s > t close u(x n ) > u(x) and such that W all > 0, 6 to > 8 t —e on average unmatched value how By > t local enough to t (by tn — {x n ) must W tn exist prizes {x) > 0, i.e. In the job search problem, the reservation an upper semicontinuous function of e for s <0> time. This follows from Theorem 2 and the definition of what an that for s Thus, for large enough n, we have continuity and local nonsatiation, there Corollary (Upper Semicontinuity) is W oo, while the inner , t n. u(x). Write x n G A*tn as required. wage > (x) A* Here must appeal to the properties of x and by monotonicity — yVt n (x) > yVt n (y) enough n. one has positive liminf because both x,y G A*s for for t = [Wtn (y) - Wtn (y)] + [Wtn (y) - Wtn (x)} + [Wtn (x) - Wtn (x)] Then the outer terms on assumption > and consider the sequence nonsatiation, there exists a prize y close to x yielding utilities u(y) W (u(x)) Here we must appeal to simple t. (x) Due x. in time, yielding for all large t and then behaving optimally. Then suppose that Finally, close t t. = 1 be the not necessarily optimal average value of holding (x) s both right continuous (x) are t, some time 6^ until 4- 1- enough n by large all employ the sequence x n shall x must be held Next, consider the second case, with xn I . t with t n first case, then x € A*n for , W > to the accounting identity (1), prize if t, argue that this limit separately holds for both even though x E A*t t —> tn such that x n £ A*tn for all large enough increasing and decreasing sequences of times. Consider the If dominated by is for all utilities. Suppose that x € A* there positive search costs will not invalidate the arguments W t is u.s.c. function some small enough neighbourhood of t . a continuous function of time, Theorem the reservation wage can discontinuously namely, So while the 1 illustrates jump up when \V jumps. t is; acceptance set Intuitively, the may suddenly 'implode' but can never 'explode', and the reservation wage can 'jump up' but can never 'jump down'. derscore how general is should un- the underlying idea here. Indeed, Smith (1994b) considers a class of models where a heterogeneous stock variable property (hard to build up, but easy to destroy). tia' I an 'upward satisfies iner- preferences over the stock If composition have a deterministic evolution, then the optimal policy entails flows that are lower hemi-continuous in time: One might well suddenly wish to discretely destroy a discrete portion of the stock, but one only continuously builds model, think of the stock of capital in set this search w€ x € A, or a job with wage prize A] the flow is A up. In it as the probability one has a the acceptance set at any time. Other typical illustrations of this idea include a firm's behaviour with respect to diverse capital stock, or individual behaviour with respect to one's reputation. its Smith (1994b) explores the general proof of work on nonstationary job search some some a > when 7 > 0. (0, 1) until how this nontrivially by Van Den Berg (1990). I generalizes previous Case - and 7 > 0. This corresponds to a foreseen wage distribution 'spike' 0, and a foreseen one-shot upward shift in the wage distribution when > have an arrival rate p offers > 0, the interest rate is (3 > and the 0, 0. >T Since the prospects are deteriorating over time after T, job once accepted will never be dropped. Thus, equations = _c + Since 1, 1 Job 1: t show how shall also that wages ~ and thereafter uniform on (0,ae~"(( t T ^), for T> time (inescapable) search costs are c , applications. basic comparative statics insights change. Suppose, as in figure are uniform on w its conclude with an example showing I = and AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 4. 7 this property r h Theorem „e 1 -<* + ,>,-«, [c L + asserts that 6 t f \ = 6t = > 0, (1) and W (2) t — W for t + s~ T t ( / 2 G [T, 00), we have 2 -7(-T) > a e 0t, and a reduce to «-*-"+». _* -^'-M + ae-^ ae-^ pe -(/Hp)(s-0[ c Thus, so long as 6 t we have s~ T WJ(b > + 02 e 7(-T))/2a](te we have -(p/2a)[a 2 e-^- T + V<'- T + ) t >] (p + 0)6 + /3c t (4) a- Ot=W t Figure The Optimal Behaviour given a Foreseen Wage Distribution Spike. 1: wage (thicker lines) and unmatched value are depicted for a wage is known to be uniformly distributed at any moment in time (on slices) on the shaded region. Depending on the parameters p and /?, reservation distribution that the vertical either the solid or the dashed paths obtain. For reasons of tractability, and > c then the problem 0, 6t is I shall confine attention to stationary, = max ^0, a(p + P)/p- two and so optimally 9 yf^Tp + (3) 2 /p 2 - (a 2 t - cases. First, = 0. if 7 = Hence, 2ac/?/p)) >T. Observe that 6 > (and thus the equations are well-defined) precisely when c < ap/2(3, i.e. when flow search costs are not too high. = e~ l(t ~ T ^6 T where Second, if 7 > and c = 0, then (4) admits the solution for all t t t 9t Case 2: If 6T = max (0, a(p + (5 + 7 )/p - <T > 1, then < 1, + P + 7 )yp*-a^ t the individual will drop any job agreed to in [0,T); thus, she problem on [0,T), subject to 8t- = 0. Otherwise, if we can act as if the problem is finite horizon with a terminal job max(0, w — solves a de facto finite horizon 9t y/a*(p , if 6t) wage w is held at time T. In general, the Bellman equation is 7 T = [l-e-W-'tyt pe -^-^(-c{l-e-^-^) J + _ e -^-')(l e ^ _ ^ )(1 + 9s)/2 + T p(l - 6 T )e~ f> -/»(T-.) )[(1 + max(0,e- /3(T Hl -9T )/2J t For #r > the last term 1, **= As might be ds) KV g "«r + 1 )/ W r- +p^ g t-p( " 2 + l_ e -/3(T-t) l_ e--/J(T-t) c rt , ' ' ' guessed, this differential equation admits no neat closed form solution, < available for 0? = (5) and so is zero, By but can be numerically evaluated. T- ds - 6r)dr {1 limtfT Ot = 1; the same token, only a numerical solution however, we can apply l'Hopital's rule to P(l — 9T 2 ) /2P > Thus, the greater 0. and deduce that (5), < 6T is 1, is the lower T -- is Comparative Statics This simple example 1. offers FSD [Improved Wages: at time fails: true that the many Shifts] First, the standard reservation = Consider 7 T < T, then useful explanatory power. improvements with respect to tonicity with respect to inance (FSD) some shifts In that case, 0. down on [V - (W unmatched value t) if wage mono- order stochastic first dom- the wage spike occurs earlier £,T"), for some e > 0. But it is still uniformly increases on [0,T), and in fact of our stylized steady-state intuitions are best interpreted as extending to average rather than flow values. 2. [Increased Risk: SSD Shifts] While the example cannot illustrate this, also true that increases in risk increase (9 t ). This is intuitive (i.e. if it is a mean-preserving spread) need not uniformly one imagines just as above that the increase is concentrated starting at some time. 3. [Policy Duration] A 'more permanent' change and can increase reservation wage 9t < 1, smaller 7) cannot decrease around the regime shift. Indeed, if 7 pushes up 6T and hence down Ot-. I think this is an addendum to macro arguments on the consequences of a permanent then a interesting volatility (i.e. fall in , versus a transitory government policy shift. By means were 7 of a different example, cyclical, say uniform on [0, 1] I could also show that at times [0, 1) U [2, 3) U • if • the wage distribution and uniform on The non-zero maximand consists of the average terminal value if the wage that exceeds 6? times (the integral) the chance that the first accepted wage exceeds 0t- is [0, a] accepted MIT LIBRARIES 3 9080 00922 5266 at times [1, 2) U [3, U 4) • then an optimizing individual will also employ a cyclical •, a stochastic number of voluntary unemploy- reservation wage ment and eventual 'permanent' position with a spells rule. This will lead to sufficiently high wage. shall I abstain from providing the mathematics, but the intuition should be clear. 5. CONCLUSION There are two modelling assumptions there no distributional uncertainty is here: it I paper worth commenting on. First, assume that the wage distribution known ex ante. It is not clear how to would certainly entail much messier analysis, in which follows a deterministic evolution that relax this assumption, but in this is one might obtain declining reservation wages as in Burdett and Vishwanath (1988). Second, I have assumed that it is the outside environment, and not the current job characteristics, that are variable. For it if one's own wage were subject to change, then might well be true that no current reservation wage rule alone could optimally serve as a quitting yardstick (see Shimer and Smith (1994)). In that case, or if one were slowly learning one's preferences about the job, then there might exist some index that would serve the same role as the wage in this paper. (eg. Gittins) References Banks, Jeffrey S. and Rangarajan K. Sundaram, "Switching Costs and the Gittins Index," Econometrica, 1994, 62 (3), 687-694. Berg, Gerard J. Economic Van Den, "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Studies, 1990, 57, 255-277. Burdett, Kenneth and Tara Vishwanath, "Declining Reservation Wages and Learning," Review of Economic Studies, 1988, 55, 655-665. Dvoretsky, A., A. Wald, and in Certain Statistical Decision Annals of Mathematical Shinier, 1994. J. Wolfowitz, "Elimination of Randomization Procedures and Zero-Sum Two- Person Games," Statistics, 1951, 22, 1-21. Robert and Lones Smith, "Matching, MIT mimeo. Smith, Lones, "Cross Sectional Dynamics 1994. — , Search, and Heterogeneity," MIT in a Two-Sided Matching Model," mimeo. "The Optimal Policy Correspondence with Sticky State Variables," 1994. Work in progress, Nancy MIT. and Robert E. Lucas, Recursive Methods Dynamics, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1989. Stokey, L. 10 in Economic 90 6 Date Due m Lib-26-67