feeding
9 billion
Jason Clay
SVP Markets
WWF-US
maintaining the planet
global food
40 years =
8,000 years
Global trends by 2050
200
180
Income
percent increase
160
140
120
100
Consumption
80
60
40
20
0
2010
Source: United Nations
Population
2050
The China phenomenon
Population at start
of growth period
Years to double
GDP per capita1
Britain (1700-1855)
9M
155
US (1820-1873)
10M
53
China (1983-1995)
1,023M
12
India (1989-2006)
822M
17
1 Time to increase GDP per capita (in PPP terms) from 1,300 to 2,600 USD
China doubling of GDP
was 12x the speed of
Britain during the
Industrial Revolution at
100x the scale
400 million
lifted out of poverty
Source: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen
Countries with > 5% GDP growth (2010-2011)
Countries where China is a top trading partner
Source: UN Comm Trade
> 100 Countries have downgraded parks and PAs
or taken them off the books entirely (1990-2013)
Source: WWF PADDDtracker.org
per capita impacts acceptable
with
7 billion
will not be with 9 billion
we must make
production
more
efficient
and sustainable
we need more from less
we must shift our thinking from trying
to maximize any one variable…
…to optimizing the key ones
the issue isn’t
what to think
it’s how to think
food
security is
national
security
and, global trade
is key
Top food exporting countries,
2002-12 (oilseed & cereals)
Drought-affected countries,
2012
yet, trade barriers
for food
are greater
than any
other sector
by 2050
9 billion
will need twice as much food
35% for food
freeze
the footprint of food
Food wedges
urban
agriculture
waste
soil carbon
genetics
over & under
consumption
technology
property
rights
better
practices
degraded
land
waste
1 out of 3 calories
genetics
“dance with the one
that brung you”
US corn yields
Double-cross Single-cross
hybrids
hybrids
introduced introduced
11
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1
1890
tons per hectare
10
Sugar
Bananas
Corn
Orphan crops
palm oil
millet
peanut
cowpeas
cassava
sugarcane
plantain
coco yam
sorghum
agriculture takes 70%
of all water used by people
1liter of water = 1calorie
better practices
100 times better
which gives us more food?
recognizing the best
or
moving the rest?
Reward the best, or move the rest?
number of producers
government
regulation
voluntary
standards
performance shift
worse
average
better
rebuild
degraded land
250 M hectares
by 2030
on a finite planet,
should consumers
have a choice
about sustainable
products?
or should
all choices
be sustainable?
make sustainability the
norm not the niche
salmon
aquaculture
Global Salmon Initiative
• Who: CEOs of 15 producer companies
• How much: 70% of global production
• What: 100% ASC certified by 2020
• How: a precompetitive approach
‒ One bad actor affects everyone
‒ Market access/license to operate
‒ Share performance data
‒ No premium
Components of S&P 500 Market Value
100
83%
68%
32%
percent
80
20%
19%
80%
81%
2005
2009
68%
60
40
32%
20
0
17%
1975
1985
Tangible assets
Source: Ocean Tomo
1995
Intangible assets
illegal
illegal
SPECIES
MINERALS
FISH
FOREST
PLANTATION
tigers
gold
bluefin tuna
pulp
palm oil
elephants
coltan
demersal fishes
timber
soy
rhinos
diamonds
shrimp and prawns
mangroves
beef
“If you don’t know where you’re going,
any road will get you there.”
think about it