Pigmeat & Poultry
David Owens
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Jan 2013
Pigmeat market update
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU prices easing from record levels
c/kg dw excl VAT
200
180
2011
EU
+ 11% /17 c/kg to 170 c/kg
160
140
120
Ire
IE
EU
+ 10% / 15 c/kg to 157 c/kg
100
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2012
Irish production higher in 2012
2011
2012
Difference
(‘000 hd)
(‘000 hd)
(‘000 hd)
ROI
2,847
2,894
+ 47
+ 1.5%
NI
609
609
n/c
n/c
Total
3,456
3,503
+ 47
+ 1%
Sows
/boars
88
95
+6
+ 7%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
% Change
But tightened as the year progressed
65,000
‘000 head per wk
60,000
55,000
50,000
2011
2012
45,000
40,000
35,000
Qtr 1
+5%
Qtr 2
+5%
Qtr 3
n/c
Qtr 4
-3%
30,000
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
EU production 2% lower Jan - Oct
2011
2,000
2012
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
‘Major exporters’ supplies tightening
(DE /DK / NL /FR)
2,400,000
2,200,000
Pigs /wk
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
2011
- 3%
- 3.2 million pigs
2012
1,400,000
1,200,000
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr May
Jun
Source: EU Commission
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
EU breeding herd declining
May - June survey
0
-2
DE
DK
ES
FR
% Change
-4
UK
-6
NL
EU
Ire
-8
-10
PL
-12
-14
It
• Represent 95% of EU herd
• Sow numbers 4% lower
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU production to decline in 2013
2
% Ch on previous year
1.5
1.6
2012
2013
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
1
0.5
-0.4
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Qtr 1
-1.7
Qtr 2
-0.7
-1.2
-2
Source: EU Commission
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
-1.5
EU exports ease
2011
2012
Jan - Sept
Jan - Sept
2,373
2,326
-2
Russia
640
579
-9
China
268
414
+54
Hong Kong
404
280
-30
Japan
174
172
-1
South Korea
152
107
-30
Total
Source: EU Commission
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
% Change
Global production rising in 2013
4
4
% Ch vs 2012
3
2.4
2
1
1
1
0
Global
Russia
China
Brazil
-1
-2
Source:
Bord Bia based on Gira / USDA
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Canada
-1
EU
-2
US
-2
Steady international demand
1,400
1,200
‘000 tonnes
1,000
800
2011
2012
2013
600
400
200
0
Japan
Russia
China
Mexico
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
South
Korea
Hong
Kong
International shortage looming... some headlines
U.S. Food Prices 2013: Just How Bad is This Bacon Shortage?
Porkapylpse Redux – World Bacon Shortage Looming (or so
say the British)
Price of a full Irish breakfast to
rise as pork costs soar
Bacon Shortage Looming. But
the new Flexitarians might
not Notice…
Bacon, pork shortage expected
for next year
Elizabeth Campbell, The
Washington Post
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Global bacon shortage
'unavoidable'
Weekly average Pigprices 2008 - 2012
EU, Brazil and the US
in Euro/ 100kg carcase
175,0
155,0
135,0
115,0
95,0
75,0
55,0
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
weeks
EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat
US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb
BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)
CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU
US
Braz. avg
CDN Ontario
|
US forecasting higher producer prices into 2013
110
100
US c/lb
90
80
70
60
50
Source: CME
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Summary .....
the most turbulent of years, high feed costs and sow welfare
directive
Domestic & EU consumption under pressure..
Higher Irish production but slowing...
lower production in the EU....
lower production in main exporters in 2013 with marginal increase in
global output....
EU prices at record levels but under pressure currently, US &
Canadian prices to reach record highs in 2013...
Steady export market demand in 2012 and into 2013...
What impact will weak economic environment on demand?
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Poultry market update
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU wholesale egg prices
185
€uro/ 100kg
165
+36%
+70%
145
125
105
85
1
4
7
10
13
Avg 07 - 11
16
19
22
25
28
2011
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
31
34
37
40
43
2012
46
49
52
EU broiler price higher but..
2012
+3.1%
200
€uro/ 100kg
190
180
170
Record prices in August
160
150
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
Avg 07 - 11
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
28
31
2011
34
37
40
43
2012
46
49
52
Sector profitability under pressure
Broiler / Feed Price Ratio
140
2011: High
feed costs –
but also
rising broiler
price
135
130
125
2013: depends
on crop and
supply balance
120
115
110
105
2012: feed
price increase
at higher rate
than broiler
price
100
95
90
j-09
j-10
j-11
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
j-12
j-13
Strong EU growth in H1 2012, slowdown in H2
4
% Ch vs 2011
3.5
3
3.4
3.6
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.7
0.5
0.6
0
Qtr 1
Qtr2
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
EU production and consumption increasing
14 000
EU 15
EU 25
EU 27
Poultrymeat Volumes ('000 t cwe)
12 000
10 000
Production
8 000
Imports
6 000
Exports
Consumption
4 000
2 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f
Source: Gira
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Summary
Domestic retail sales showing marginal decline in 2012...
Feed severely affecting sector profitability...
Production and consumption growth slowing from H2 2012..
2013 to remain challenging – slowing broiler supply (0.8%),
economic slowdown limiting consumption growth
Growing import competition from Thailand...
Declining imports from Brazil..
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Thank you!
David Owens
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Jan 2013